Ronald Klain is 100% correct. The NRA and the assault weapon ban were not the reason why Democrats lost control of the House in 1994. The NRA was the rooster that took credit for the dawn. Democrats lost the House for a myriad of reasons, including the tax increase, a weak economy, Clinton Administration missteps, Congressional scandals and, yes, the Brady Bill. But more than anything, 1994 was about the final realignment of WWC* voters moving away from the Democrats. In the '80s, they had voted for Reagan at the top of the ticket, but kept returning their incumbent Democratic congressment, especially in the South.
With Clinton winning a plurality of the popular vote, those voters turned away from the Democratic party - again, especially in the South. As Klain points out, the NRA went on to become a partisan group rather than an interest group. The NRA simply will not support Democrats - so why cater to them?
The main takeaway that I've seen from Progressives in the wake of Stoneman Douglas is that it is no longer possible to reason with "responsible gun owners." The responsible ones already agree with most of the proposals. It's about defeating the NRA. Period.
And it's about finishing the coalition work that Obama started of creating a Democratic party that contains women, minorities, city dwellers, young people and now - increasingly - suburban college educated voters. THAT is the future, and it doesn't entail "respecting" ammosexuals who think their right to own weapons of war supersedes the right of the rest of us to be safe.
* White Working Class/Whites Without College
Wednesday, February 28, 2018
Tuesday, February 27, 2018
Serving Their Masters
One of the odd things about Trumpistan and the moment we live in, is that it has exposed all the lies that Republicans say about themselves. For instance, Republicans are pro-big business. Really? Then explain why Georgia Republicans look to be declaring war on the state's largest private employer.
The GOP serves a narrow band of powerful interests, and they mobilize fear and racial resentment to win office. That's not just true of Trump.
The GOP serves a narrow band of powerful interests, and they mobilize fear and racial resentment to win office. That's not just true of Trump.
Monday, February 26, 2018
Odd Article, Important Point
The WaPo has a bizarre article about the impending fiscal catastrophe that is about to explode within the Trump budget. Typically, it looks once more like Democrats got rolled in the budget negotiations that they signed off on last month. By agreeing to a new budget, they opened the door to massive cuts in various agencies.
What is so odd about the Post article is that it focuses on a small part of the federal scientific community. I get that these are the sort of programs that Republicans love to attack, because - as you can see in the article - they are both anti-science and pro-plutocracy. They think billionaire philanthropy (market forces) should determine funding, rather than a shared communal goal of advancing knowledge.
The Trump budget is going to gut education aid at a time when paying for college is getting harder and harder. And that's what I know from literally zero research; I just heard it on the wife's NPR. My guess, knowing the Trump Adminstration and the general awfulness of GOP policy makers, is that there are a basket full of deplorable cuts in here.
Thanks a lot Republicans...and Democrats.
What is so odd about the Post article is that it focuses on a small part of the federal scientific community. I get that these are the sort of programs that Republicans love to attack, because - as you can see in the article - they are both anti-science and pro-plutocracy. They think billionaire philanthropy (market forces) should determine funding, rather than a shared communal goal of advancing knowledge.
The Trump budget is going to gut education aid at a time when paying for college is getting harder and harder. And that's what I know from literally zero research; I just heard it on the wife's NPR. My guess, knowing the Trump Adminstration and the general awfulness of GOP policy makers, is that there are a basket full of deplorable cuts in here.
Thanks a lot Republicans...and Democrats.
Sunday, February 25, 2018
The Kitchen Sink
Josh Marshall points out that we need to change liability laws surrounding gun ownership. He also notes that this won't "solve" the problem, but it is an important societal step to make those who sell and own guns responsible for their product, just as a bartender is for selling more booze to an obvious drunk.
The point, I think, is not that changing liability laws or banning certain military grade weapons or raising the age to buy a gun or taxing guns and ammunition more or background checks or a mental health database or a "no-fly; no buy" list or biometric locks or whatever else you want to come up with will work in and off themselves.
The goal needs to be to kitchen sink the shit out of this problem. Do it all. And the only way to do it all is win control of the government.
The point, I think, is not that changing liability laws or banning certain military grade weapons or raising the age to buy a gun or taxing guns and ammunition more or background checks or a mental health database or a "no-fly; no buy" list or biometric locks or whatever else you want to come up with will work in and off themselves.
The goal needs to be to kitchen sink the shit out of this problem. Do it all. And the only way to do it all is win control of the government.
Saturday, February 24, 2018
Using Their Outside Voice
CPAC has always been a bit of a freak show, but this year's is especially freakish. The thuggish , the xenophobic , the racist and the bloodthirsty all had prominent speaking roles. And then they rolled all of those into one person!
Again, I hesitate to call whatever the hell CPAC is "conservative," except they seem to do it a lot. This leads to bitter tears from people like Kevin Williamson, who sees his vision of what conservatism is besmirched by the actual people who believe this crap.
I think the problem is that for all the people who say that they belong to the Party of Reagan, the reality is that they are the Party of Nixon. They always have been. Not the Nixon who signed whatever a Democratic Congress placed in front of him, but the Nixon of the Southern Strategy and "law and order" and "ratfucking" and "Watergate." They are the party of "just win, baby."
In order to "just win," they have had to embrace the sordid underbelly of racism and hatred and conspiracy mongering. Once the John Birch Society got their own news channel it was really just a matter of time before the "conservatives" started using the voices that they normally kept locked behind closed doors.
The simple electoral fact is this: There aren't that many votes for principled, small government libertarianism, because principled, small government libertarianism is essentially the ideology of wealth and status. The vast majority of Republican voters fall into the "Keep government's hands off my Medicare" camp. They desperately want and need all those programs that Paul Ryan wants to get rid of. So, in order to get votes, Paul Ryan and his ilk have to animate the fearful, the racist, the xenophobic, the bigoted...because there are a lot more of them.
This moment of Trump - the ultimate user of his outside voice - has exposed all this. It's freaking out those principled, small government libertarians, because they thought all those steelworkers were voting for lower tax rates on the rich and deregulation of Wall Street.
Eh...no.
Right now, looking at the Far Right is to look at the Republican Party. The takeover of the Party by the angry, fearful, older white people is complete.
Do you want to know why the Trump Administration is likely to set records for corruption and criminal convictions?
Because these really are the worst people. The Dana Loeschs and Roy Moores and Paul Manaforts and Steve Mnuchins and Mick Mulvaneys and, yes, goddamnit, Donald Trumps are just awful human beings. And Trump's unique immoral awfulness is "emboldening" the awful amongst us to let their outside voices fly loud and clear.
To bring it back to the gun debate: There is no "debating" or convincing the ammosexuals about reasonable gun safety measures.
There is only beating them. Wholly and utterly beating them.
They have shown us who they are. It's on us if we don't do everything in our power to send them back to the holes they crawled out of.
UPDATE: Jeet Heer has more context.
Again, I hesitate to call whatever the hell CPAC is "conservative," except they seem to do it a lot. This leads to bitter tears from people like Kevin Williamson, who sees his vision of what conservatism is besmirched by the actual people who believe this crap.
I think the problem is that for all the people who say that they belong to the Party of Reagan, the reality is that they are the Party of Nixon. They always have been. Not the Nixon who signed whatever a Democratic Congress placed in front of him, but the Nixon of the Southern Strategy and "law and order" and "ratfucking" and "Watergate." They are the party of "just win, baby."
In order to "just win," they have had to embrace the sordid underbelly of racism and hatred and conspiracy mongering. Once the John Birch Society got their own news channel it was really just a matter of time before the "conservatives" started using the voices that they normally kept locked behind closed doors.
The simple electoral fact is this: There aren't that many votes for principled, small government libertarianism, because principled, small government libertarianism is essentially the ideology of wealth and status. The vast majority of Republican voters fall into the "Keep government's hands off my Medicare" camp. They desperately want and need all those programs that Paul Ryan wants to get rid of. So, in order to get votes, Paul Ryan and his ilk have to animate the fearful, the racist, the xenophobic, the bigoted...because there are a lot more of them.
This moment of Trump - the ultimate user of his outside voice - has exposed all this. It's freaking out those principled, small government libertarians, because they thought all those steelworkers were voting for lower tax rates on the rich and deregulation of Wall Street.
Eh...no.
Right now, looking at the Far Right is to look at the Republican Party. The takeover of the Party by the angry, fearful, older white people is complete.
Do you want to know why the Trump Administration is likely to set records for corruption and criminal convictions?
Because these really are the worst people. The Dana Loeschs and Roy Moores and Paul Manaforts and Steve Mnuchins and Mick Mulvaneys and, yes, goddamnit, Donald Trumps are just awful human beings. And Trump's unique immoral awfulness is "emboldening" the awful amongst us to let their outside voices fly loud and clear.
To bring it back to the gun debate: There is no "debating" or convincing the ammosexuals about reasonable gun safety measures.
There is only beating them. Wholly and utterly beating them.
They have shown us who they are. It's on us if we don't do everything in our power to send them back to the holes they crawled out of.
UPDATE: Jeet Heer has more context.
Status Update Loading
I have not blogged much about the Mueller investigation, because there are plenty of other people who have more and better things to say about it, and because it's trying to hit a moving target. At this point, however, there are a few things worth noting.
First, Paul Manafort is at least as corrupt as you could've possibly imagined, and he's probably a great deal more corrupt than we know. He was a perfect mark for Russian Kompromat efforts, and he has zero moral compass.
Second, these guys are flipping like pancakes. That could mean that either they are so guilty and Mueller has so much dirt on them that they have no other options, or it could mean that they have no personal loyalty to anyone. My guess is that it is both at once.
Looking at the people that Mueller is focusing on, and then looking at the speakers at CPAC, one can't help but notice that the "conservative" movement really does attract the very worst people.
First, Paul Manafort is at least as corrupt as you could've possibly imagined, and he's probably a great deal more corrupt than we know. He was a perfect mark for Russian Kompromat efforts, and he has zero moral compass.
Second, these guys are flipping like pancakes. That could mean that either they are so guilty and Mueller has so much dirt on them that they have no other options, or it could mean that they have no personal loyalty to anyone. My guess is that it is both at once.
Looking at the people that Mueller is focusing on, and then looking at the speakers at CPAC, one can't help but notice that the "conservative" movement really does attract the very worst people.
Friday, February 23, 2018
What Rough Beast...
Jon Chait makes an important point, though I struggle with the nomenclature. He says that Trump represents the apotheosis of conservatism. I don't like the term "conservative" applied to what is clearly a reactionary, ethnonationalist, authoritarian and racist movement. But CPAC is gonna CPAC, and they call themselves conservatives, even though there is nothing archetypically "conservative" about their agenda.
This line is key:
Conservatives like to imagine Reagan as the beau ideal of a president who faithfully adhered to their principles, but Trump is the president who has actually done it.
My hope is that the Trump years - "conservatism" unmasked - will kill this malignancy at the heart of American politics that has existed since the days of the John Birch Society and White Citizens' Councils. I doubt it, but I hope we have more Goldwater moments, rather than more Nixon moments.
This line is key:
Conservatives like to imagine Reagan as the beau ideal of a president who faithfully adhered to their principles, but Trump is the president who has actually done it.
My hope is that the Trump years - "conservatism" unmasked - will kill this malignancy at the heart of American politics that has existed since the days of the John Birch Society and White Citizens' Councils. I doubt it, but I hope we have more Goldwater moments, rather than more Nixon moments.
The Dawn Of Understanding
For whatever reasons, most likely pertaining to the heightened politicization of the times, the gun control advocates are beginning to realize something. There is no persuading Second Amendment Fundamentalists. They exist within a belief system that is simply impervious to evidence or persuasion. Reading the linked piece, you can see the violent, authoritarian mindset of the ammosexuals. Their solution to violent criminals is to be violent with their own children.
Here is a map of states that allow corporal punishment of children in schools:
If you believe that somehow the same video games in Japan somehow lead to America's mass shooting problem, because Jesus, then there is really no ability to persuade that person that their position is wrong on the merits.
There is only one thing to do. Vote down the pro-gun representatives. Organize, out vote, win. Make new rules.
And they can suck on it, frankly, because I'm tired of hearing about how another school or concert or business was shot up with a weapon of war.
Here is a map of states that allow corporal punishment of children in schools:
Here is a map of murder rates:
It's not a perfect correlation, but it's striking.
If you believe that somehow the same video games in Japan somehow lead to America's mass shooting problem, because Jesus, then there is really no ability to persuade that person that their position is wrong on the merits.
There is only one thing to do. Vote down the pro-gun representatives. Organize, out vote, win. Make new rules.
And they can suck on it, frankly, because I'm tired of hearing about how another school or concert or business was shot up with a weapon of war.
Thursday, February 22, 2018
National; Treasure
Alexandra Petri is one of our most important writers right now, because she can find exactly the right ribs to stick the satirical blade between. Finding a humorous target in the gun debate is impressive.
Wednesday, February 21, 2018
When A Friend Of Mine Succeeds...
...a little part of me dies.
I've never met Ed Burmila, but we've been online acquaintences for a few years.
He's finally getting his due.
I've never met Ed Burmila, but we've been online acquaintences for a few years.
He's finally getting his due.
Tuesday, February 20, 2018
This Is Important
It's an old piece from Vox, but it speaks not only to guns, but to why Trump continues to hold very high approval ratings among Republicans. In fact, written in 2015, it perfectly predicts the rise of Trump.
If you want to understand American politics today, you should read it.
If you want to understand American politics today, you should read it.
Exhibit A
Since our latest tragedy involving guns and school children, I have been pushing back on the idea that "Congress" is to blame for the lack of action on gun violence. Here is exhibit A in the "Congress" is to blame narrative.
"Congress" is not to blame. A majority of Republicans in Congress is to blame. This is not the fault of a city or an institution. It's a political choice made by the governing party that controls the House, Senate and White House.
Some people have started to push back on this narrative, and it needs to continue. Republicans benefited from American's poor understanding of their own governing institutions for years. With Obama in the White House, dysfunction and gridlock could be blamed on both parties. Now, that fig leaf has been removed, and Republicans have no place to hide.
Hold them accountable.
"Congress" is not to blame. A majority of Republicans in Congress is to blame. This is not the fault of a city or an institution. It's a political choice made by the governing party that controls the House, Senate and White House.
Some people have started to push back on this narrative, and it needs to continue. Republicans benefited from American's poor understanding of their own governing institutions for years. With Obama in the White House, dysfunction and gridlock could be blamed on both parties. Now, that fig leaf has been removed, and Republicans have no place to hide.
Hold them accountable.
Monday, February 19, 2018
Leveraging The Id
Trump's massive, world warping insecurities threaten the very fabric of American government. His bileous rage-tweeting this weekend is a prime example of how Trump's inability to differentiate his frail ego from the rest of the world's concerns.
However, there is at least the possibility that Trump's wounded pride could lead to the first modest restrictions on guns in two decades.
I know it can hurt when you get upstaged by the eloquence and morality of teenagers. It's happened to me a few times over the years. Of course, when it happens to me, I'm proud to be upstaged. It gives me hope for the future. Trump's future extends to about 15 minutes from now. But if this is what it takes for Trump and the GOP to sign even the most modest background check bill, maybe there's hope.
Then again, how's that "bump stock" ban going?
However, there is at least the possibility that Trump's wounded pride could lead to the first modest restrictions on guns in two decades.
I know it can hurt when you get upstaged by the eloquence and morality of teenagers. It's happened to me a few times over the years. Of course, when it happens to me, I'm proud to be upstaged. It gives me hope for the future. Trump's future extends to about 15 minutes from now. But if this is what it takes for Trump and the GOP to sign even the most modest background check bill, maybe there's hope.
Then again, how's that "bump stock" ban going?
Sunday, February 18, 2018
What Did I Miss?
I was away at New Englands all weekend and had no time to blog.
But I open the WaPo this morning and see that Trump continues to lose his squash over the Mueller investigation. Mueller's indictments against Russian interference is a critical first step in his investigation. Trump has denied or down played Russian meddling in his popular vote defeat/electoral college victory. His fragile ego can't handle the fact that he won with the biggest asterisk next to his name since Quincy Adams.
His unhinged tweeting is being linked in the story to his absence from the golf course. Once again, the best thing for America is that Trump is incapable of doing his job. It is best to keep him distracted and occupied until such time as he leaves office. Given the monumental id that rages under that fragile ego, a Trump free to focus on his grievances and enemies is sure to do more and more damage to American institutions.
Thanks, Republicans.
But I open the WaPo this morning and see that Trump continues to lose his squash over the Mueller investigation. Mueller's indictments against Russian interference is a critical first step in his investigation. Trump has denied or down played Russian meddling in his popular vote defeat/electoral college victory. His fragile ego can't handle the fact that he won with the biggest asterisk next to his name since Quincy Adams.
His unhinged tweeting is being linked in the story to his absence from the golf course. Once again, the best thing for America is that Trump is incapable of doing his job. It is best to keep him distracted and occupied until such time as he leaves office. Given the monumental id that rages under that fragile ego, a Trump free to focus on his grievances and enemies is sure to do more and more damage to American institutions.
Thanks, Republicans.
Thursday, February 15, 2018
Counterpoint
I've read a few reflections about how "we" are failing to address the slaughter of innocents that happens in America and no other developed country in the world.
Paul Waldman offers an important corrective. It's not that "America" or "Americans" are helpless before this blood tide of carnage. It's that the Republican Party will not do anything about it.
So when I read something like Josh Marshall's take on our collective impotence, I have to pause. If we had a Democratic President and House and probably 56 or so Democrats in the Senate, we - as a country - could do something.
The problem isn't "America," it's the gun fetishists and their lackeys in the institutional Republican party.
Paul Waldman offers an important corrective. It's not that "America" or "Americans" are helpless before this blood tide of carnage. It's that the Republican Party will not do anything about it.
So when I read something like Josh Marshall's take on our collective impotence, I have to pause. If we had a Democratic President and House and probably 56 or so Democrats in the Senate, we - as a country - could do something.
The problem isn't "America," it's the gun fetishists and their lackeys in the institutional Republican party.
Where We Are
The Onion wrote a story a few years back in 2014 about how how we can't stop mass shootings. They re-release it every time we have another one. In some ways, there is no better condemnation of how the NRA has a stranglehold on the Republican party and therefore our gun policy. A writer for Jimmy Kimmel (When did he become the 21st century's Edward R. Murrow?) has responded to every "thoughts and prayers" tweet with the amount of dollars that person has received from the NRA. It's powerful, but ultimately futile.
We are stuck with a dysfunctional party and a lunatic president presiding over a broken government that exists solely to funnel money to the 1%. Until Congress changes, we are stuck here. Stuck in a place where we routinely sacrifice the lives of children to the bloody ravenous maw of the NRA.
Have we had enough of making America great yet?
We are stuck with a dysfunctional party and a lunatic president presiding over a broken government that exists solely to funnel money to the 1%. Until Congress changes, we are stuck here. Stuck in a place where we routinely sacrifice the lives of children to the bloody ravenous maw of the NRA.
Have we had enough of making America great yet?
Wednesday, February 14, 2018
Tuesday, February 13, 2018
Extraordinary
I was reading this WaPo piece about the escalating Porter-Kelly scandal. It isn't an op-ed piece, but it almost reads like one, because it simply catalogs two things: established facts about Trump's lies and the chaos of his White House, and the absolute flood of leaks that gush from this administration.
The amount of back-biting and CYA is actually impressive in its volume and consistency.
It's worth noting that the established reputation for dishonesty, the rank incompetence and the "every man and woman for themselves" ethos of the Trump Maladministration could actually make the ultimate collapse happen.
Rats don't go down with a sinking ship if they can help it.
The amount of back-biting and CYA is actually impressive in its volume and consistency.
It's worth noting that the established reputation for dishonesty, the rank incompetence and the "every man and woman for themselves" ethos of the Trump Maladministration could actually make the ultimate collapse happen.
Rats don't go down with a sinking ship if they can help it.
Such A Nice Guy
Bibi Netanyahu has never really been my favorite person. He has acted like America exists to serve Israel and openly allied himself in American partisan politics.
Turns out he's probably hugely corrupt.
Turns out he's probably hugely corrupt.
Today In Epistemelogical Closure
Fox News has a new bone to play with. Except, as per usual, it turns out not to be a bone, but a calcified goose turd.
Monday, February 12, 2018
Kakistocracy Part the Billionth
The Trump Administration is full of people with terrible ideas like privatizing public infrastructure and punishing the poor. Also, they want to gut watchdog agencies and blow a massive hole in the debt.
Oh, wait, I'm sorry. That's not the Trump Administration, that's pretty much 95% of Republicans.
Keep that in mind when Trump goes down like the Hindenburg. He's pretty much a conservative agenda with a volatile Twitter account.
Oh, wait, I'm sorry. That's not the Trump Administration, that's pretty much 95% of Republicans.
Keep that in mind when Trump goes down like the Hindenburg. He's pretty much a conservative agenda with a volatile Twitter account.
Keep An Eye On This
Charles Franklin has a long tweetstorm that doesn't say a whole lot. But basically, since Trump has taken office, the number of self-identified Republicans has fallen back to levels seen when Democrats did much better electorally.
Watch the number of self-indentified Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Watch and see if that number keeps eroding.
Will Trump make being a Republican radioactive?
Watch the number of self-indentified Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Watch and see if that number keeps eroding.
Will Trump make being a Republican radioactive?
Sunday, February 11, 2018
The Grey Lady
Two interesting takes on the NY Times.
The first is a parody on the fact that the Times - in a never ending quest for Both Sides - insists on hiring truly risible hacks for their op-ed page.
The second is a more nuanced take from Martin Longman about where the Times fits into our media ecosystem. Yes, the Times did a truly horrific job in the run-up to two of the biggest disasters of the 21st century: the Iraq War and the 2016 election. But it's reporting can still remain top-notch.
But that doesn't mean you shouldn't be reading the Post instead.
The first is a parody on the fact that the Times - in a never ending quest for Both Sides - insists on hiring truly risible hacks for their op-ed page.
The second is a more nuanced take from Martin Longman about where the Times fits into our media ecosystem. Yes, the Times did a truly horrific job in the run-up to two of the biggest disasters of the 21st century: the Iraq War and the 2016 election. But it's reporting can still remain top-notch.
But that doesn't mean you shouldn't be reading the Post instead.
Saturday, February 10, 2018
Friday, February 9, 2018
Putting Out A Fire With Gasoline
So, the market keeps "correcting." Some of this is good, simply because the market was overvalued. It was overvalued, because interest rates were too low. Brokers could borrow cheap money, get good, quick returns on it, pay off the interest and pocket the growth. The concern now is that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates.
The Fed will likely raise rates, because the GOP Congress just passed two massive stimulative measures. The GOP tax cut will give the very rich a massive pay-out, which could further inflate a stock or other investment bubble. Preventing bubbles is part of the Fed's mandate. Also, the spending bill that was just passed will pump hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy at a time when we really don't need more stimulative spending.
The tax cut and the spending bill are highly stimulative and inflationary, and the Federal Reserve will have to act accordingly (unless they don't, because they are dominated by Republicans who will take a YOLO attitude towards bubbles).
From a macroeconomic standpoint, the bills passed by the GOP Congress are just bad policy.
Not that this has ever stopped them before.
The Fed will likely raise rates, because the GOP Congress just passed two massive stimulative measures. The GOP tax cut will give the very rich a massive pay-out, which could further inflate a stock or other investment bubble. Preventing bubbles is part of the Fed's mandate. Also, the spending bill that was just passed will pump hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy at a time when we really don't need more stimulative spending.
The tax cut and the spending bill are highly stimulative and inflationary, and the Federal Reserve will have to act accordingly (unless they don't, because they are dominated by Republicans who will take a YOLO attitude towards bubbles).
From a macroeconomic standpoint, the bills passed by the GOP Congress are just bad policy.
Not that this has ever stopped them before.
Thursday, February 8, 2018
The Best People
Jennifer Rubin, erstwhile conservative at WaPo, reminds us that the deeper implications of the Rob Porter scandal is that the White House knew about it, kept him on and then initially defended him until the pictures came out. She also points out that this is directly the fault of John Kelly, whose job is literally to oversee the White House Staff.
Kelly was supposed to be the savior, the "grown up in the room" to lead to a more mature Trump. His four stars were supposed to lend gravitas to a White House that was somewhere between a frat house, a psych ward and a criminal enterprise. Instead, Kelly is just a quieter version of the bullying, bigoted and misogynism that Trump farts out on Twitter every day.
Sarah Huckabee Sanders would also like to point out that you can't criticism him, because generals.
Kelly was supposed to be the savior, the "grown up in the room" to lead to a more mature Trump. His four stars were supposed to lend gravitas to a White House that was somewhere between a frat house, a psych ward and a criminal enterprise. Instead, Kelly is just a quieter version of the bullying, bigoted and misogynism that Trump farts out on Twitter every day.
Sarah Huckabee Sanders would also like to point out that you can't criticism him, because generals.
Terrifying
Vox runs a plausible, if worse case, scenario about what a war with North Korea would look like. The count would be in the millions of dead with the full range of Nuclear, Biological and Chemical weapons likely being deployed by North Korea against South Korea, Japan and possibly the United States.
It's horrifying. I know quite a few Koreans over the years of teaching in boarding schools. I'm sitting in class right now with a Korean student right now. It takes a miligram of empathy to want to avoid a war on the Korean peninsula. Yet, I have a sinking sensation that Trump will wait until close to the mid-terms and launch a war there to boost his flagging poll numbers or deflect from Mueller indictments.
Maybe we should let him have his Stalinist military parade, if it keeps him away from the real thing.
Thanks, Republicans.
It's horrifying. I know quite a few Koreans over the years of teaching in boarding schools. I'm sitting in class right now with a Korean student right now. It takes a miligram of empathy to want to avoid a war on the Korean peninsula. Yet, I have a sinking sensation that Trump will wait until close to the mid-terms and launch a war there to boost his flagging poll numbers or deflect from Mueller indictments.
Maybe we should let him have his Stalinist military parade, if it keeps him away from the real thing.
Thanks, Republicans.
I Think We've Established That
Apparently, people are still surprised to find out that the GOP doesn't give a damn about the deficit.
Seriously, why is this even up for debate at this point? The GOP does not care about deficits, otherwise they wouldn't have passed the Kick America In The Nuts Act of 2017. That they are now willing to give some money to social programs so that we can funnel more money to military contractors should come as a surprise to exactly no one.
Seriously, why is this even up for debate at this point? The GOP does not care about deficits, otherwise they wouldn't have passed the Kick America In The Nuts Act of 2017. That they are now willing to give some money to social programs so that we can funnel more money to military contractors should come as a surprise to exactly no one.
Wednesday, February 7, 2018
Politics. How Does It Work?
So, Chuck Schumer apparently decided to shoot all of his own hostages today. Some of this is predictable, in that Democrats like Schumer don't want to be taking hostages anyway. Like most Democrats in Washington, Schumer tends to live in a reflexive crouch against attacks. He doesn't want to people to say that Chuck Schumer shutdown the government.
Harry Reid, you are missed.
The arguments for a two year funding bill are not without merit. It will make sure that certain important programs get funding. Great. It might get us closer to stopping government by crisis.
Except....
If you are the "out party" then crisis works to your benefit. If you are the "out party" calm benefits the dominant party. Maybe that's irrelevant in Trumpistan, because he will create his own crises, but it's still important.
Except....
This bill removes any leverage the Democrats have to get a DACA fix passed. Certainly, any fix is unlikely to pass the House, unless it meets Trump's approval. It could pass, but Ryan won't bring it to a vote.
This feels very much like a premature capitulation, at a time when Democratic activists and voters are spoiling for a fight. But Chuck Schumer and the moderate Senators are not fighters. They simply aren't. They don't have the numbers or the electoral safety to force meaningful concessions, so they will sacrifice a million young people in order to save their jobs.
Profiles in derpage.
Harry Reid, you are missed.
The arguments for a two year funding bill are not without merit. It will make sure that certain important programs get funding. Great. It might get us closer to stopping government by crisis.
Except....
If you are the "out party" then crisis works to your benefit. If you are the "out party" calm benefits the dominant party. Maybe that's irrelevant in Trumpistan, because he will create his own crises, but it's still important.
Except....
This bill removes any leverage the Democrats have to get a DACA fix passed. Certainly, any fix is unlikely to pass the House, unless it meets Trump's approval. It could pass, but Ryan won't bring it to a vote.
This feels very much like a premature capitulation, at a time when Democratic activists and voters are spoiling for a fight. But Chuck Schumer and the moderate Senators are not fighters. They simply aren't. They don't have the numbers or the electoral safety to force meaningful concessions, so they will sacrifice a million young people in order to save their jobs.
Profiles in derpage.
Puerto Rico
What has happened in Puerto Rico to American citizens would be a headline grabbing scandal in normal times. The response has been a prefect distillation of Trumpistan: corruption shot through with incompetence, glazed with a thick coat of racism.
Every Puerto Rican who is able should move to Florida and Texas and vote.
Every Puerto Rican who is able should move to Florida and Texas and vote.
Tuesday, February 6, 2018
I Mean....
Shorter Trump lawyers: We can't let the President of the United States testify under oath, because he's a compulsive liar.
Thank you, Republicans. Really appreciate it.
Thank you, Republicans. Really appreciate it.
Monday, February 5, 2018
The Timeline
I spent some time arguing on Facebook with a guy who thinks the real villain in the Russia scandal is, of course, Hillary Clinton and the Deep State. So, with Josh Marshall's help, let's lay this out.
2013 - Idiot manchild Carter Page comes in for scrutiny because he's cozying up to Russian agents and bragging about it.
2016 - FBI and other intelligence agencies begin investigating the hacks into the DNC server.
March, 2016 - Carter Page and Paul Manafort join the Trump campaign. Page is his Russia "expert" and Manafort is in some unspecified roled. Manafort has had long and lucrative ties to the pro-Putin cabal in Ukraine.
June, 2016 - Paul Manafort becomes campaign manager.
July, 2016 - George Papadopoulos drunk-brags to an Australian diplomat that the Russians are going to give him damaging emails from Hillary Clinton. The Australian diplomat contacts the FBI. Wikileaks then dumps its first set of emails.
The FBI is in possession of the following facts: Carter Page, who has been under investigation for years, and George Papdoploulos, who has bragged about colluding with the Russians for dirt on Clinton are two members of the Trump foreign policy team. Manafort, who has extensive ties to Russian interests, is the campaign manager. Russian hackers are releasing damaging emails about Clinton through Wikileaks.
July, 2016 - Manafort pushes through a plank in the GOP platform that suggests America will no longer help Ukraine in its fight against Russia.
July, 2016 - Trump urges Russia to hack into Clinton's email server and release them. He did this in a press conference.
All of this - as Marshall points out - comes with the backdrop of Trump's financial connections with Russian business interests. This is why he fired Preet Bahara as US AG for Manhattan. Trump - like a lot of real estate developers - runs to windward of financial laws. His numerous bankruptcies made it impossible to borrow from American banks, so he turned to Russian oligarchs and siloviki to finance his business interests.
Summer, 2016 - The Steele Dossier is turned over to the FBI.
Fall of 2016 - Wikileaks continues to drop emails at convenient times for the Trump campaign. Steele - worried that the FBI isn't taking him seriously - leaks his dossier to David Corn. The FBI freezes Steele out.
October, 2016 - Democratic leaders, aware of the FBI's investigation of Trump's foreign policy circle, want the FBI to release that they are actively investigating the Trump campaign. Instead, we get the Comey letter, written by Peter Strozk that most certainly tips a tight election into the toss-up category. The FBI actually DENIES that they are investigating the Trump campaign, even as they are investigating the Trump campaign.
November, 2016 - Against all odds and the expectations of just about everyone, Trump wins the election. The FBI's plan to avoid looking suspicious by releasing news of the Huma Abedin emails, in fact tips the election to someone that they are investigating already.
Let's go further.
December, 2016 - Michael Flynn promises the Russians that sanctions will be eased.
January, 2017 - Jefferson Beauregard Sessions recuses himself from the Russian investigation, because he lied to the Senate about his Russian contacts.
May, 2017 - Trump fires James Comey, then he brags to Lester Holt on air that he did so to end the Russia investigation. Rod Rosenstein appoints Robert Mueller to investigate.
Pretty much everything I wrote there was established fact. We can add the guilty pleas of Papadopoulos and Flynn, if you want. Those are facts.
What was striking in my encounter with my friend tapped into the hivemind is how little any of this evidence means to him.
Obama is the real villain here, because reasons.
Depressing as hell.
2013 - Idiot manchild Carter Page comes in for scrutiny because he's cozying up to Russian agents and bragging about it.
2016 - FBI and other intelligence agencies begin investigating the hacks into the DNC server.
March, 2016 - Carter Page and Paul Manafort join the Trump campaign. Page is his Russia "expert" and Manafort is in some unspecified roled. Manafort has had long and lucrative ties to the pro-Putin cabal in Ukraine.
June, 2016 - Paul Manafort becomes campaign manager.
July, 2016 - George Papadopoulos drunk-brags to an Australian diplomat that the Russians are going to give him damaging emails from Hillary Clinton. The Australian diplomat contacts the FBI. Wikileaks then dumps its first set of emails.
The FBI is in possession of the following facts: Carter Page, who has been under investigation for years, and George Papdoploulos, who has bragged about colluding with the Russians for dirt on Clinton are two members of the Trump foreign policy team. Manafort, who has extensive ties to Russian interests, is the campaign manager. Russian hackers are releasing damaging emails about Clinton through Wikileaks.
July, 2016 - Manafort pushes through a plank in the GOP platform that suggests America will no longer help Ukraine in its fight against Russia.
July, 2016 - Trump urges Russia to hack into Clinton's email server and release them. He did this in a press conference.
All of this - as Marshall points out - comes with the backdrop of Trump's financial connections with Russian business interests. This is why he fired Preet Bahara as US AG for Manhattan. Trump - like a lot of real estate developers - runs to windward of financial laws. His numerous bankruptcies made it impossible to borrow from American banks, so he turned to Russian oligarchs and siloviki to finance his business interests.
Summer, 2016 - The Steele Dossier is turned over to the FBI.
Fall of 2016 - Wikileaks continues to drop emails at convenient times for the Trump campaign. Steele - worried that the FBI isn't taking him seriously - leaks his dossier to David Corn. The FBI freezes Steele out.
October, 2016 - Democratic leaders, aware of the FBI's investigation of Trump's foreign policy circle, want the FBI to release that they are actively investigating the Trump campaign. Instead, we get the Comey letter, written by Peter Strozk that most certainly tips a tight election into the toss-up category. The FBI actually DENIES that they are investigating the Trump campaign, even as they are investigating the Trump campaign.
November, 2016 - Against all odds and the expectations of just about everyone, Trump wins the election. The FBI's plan to avoid looking suspicious by releasing news of the Huma Abedin emails, in fact tips the election to someone that they are investigating already.
Let's go further.
December, 2016 - Michael Flynn promises the Russians that sanctions will be eased.
January, 2017 - Jefferson Beauregard Sessions recuses himself from the Russian investigation, because he lied to the Senate about his Russian contacts.
May, 2017 - Trump fires James Comey, then he brags to Lester Holt on air that he did so to end the Russia investigation. Rod Rosenstein appoints Robert Mueller to investigate.
Pretty much everything I wrote there was established fact. We can add the guilty pleas of Papadopoulos and Flynn, if you want. Those are facts.
What was striking in my encounter with my friend tapped into the hivemind is how little any of this evidence means to him.
Obama is the real villain here, because reasons.
Depressing as hell.
Sunday, February 4, 2018
Encountering The Borg
So, picking up from the post from yesterday, I engaged a Facebook Friend on the Nunes Memo. He's virulently anti-Obama, and clearly has a complicated relationship with Trump. He prefaces his praise of Cheeto Benito with things like, "Say what you will about him.." or "For all the concerns about him..."
Anyway, we had a mostly civil exchange, as those things go. Some of his other friends in the thread...not so much.
What was striking about his position was the same thing that was striking about the Nunes Memo: Assertions without evidence.
Years ago, when we looked at the History Department's writing curriculum, the main thing we wanted to get across to students was that if you make an assertion, you have to have evidence to back it up. You can't just say that "Obummer is the corruptest president EVAH." Back it up. What's your evidence?
If it turns out your evidence is a Breitbart story and an op-ed from the WSJ...is that really evidence or just a concurring assertion?
The gist of the Nunes Memo is that Carter Page's civil rights were violated by a run amok cabal or anti-Trump people at the FBI. The problem is that there is no evidence to support this beyond the fact that this story is anti-Trump. Because it is anti-Trump, it must be the motivations of the people pursuing it that make it anti-Trump.
How do you reconcile the fact that the FBI is out of control with Michael Flynn's guilty plea? George Papadapoulos' guilty plea? The grand jury indictments of Paul Manafort and Richard Gates? How do you reconcile the "witch hunt" angle with Trump's on-air admission to Lester Holt that he is obstructing the Russia investigation? How do you reconcile any of this?
You close yourself off to competing facts. Opinions...OK, I'm not sure I need to read any more Ross Douthat. But look at the fact.
Please. The future of our Republic depends on it.
Anyway, we had a mostly civil exchange, as those things go. Some of his other friends in the thread...not so much.
What was striking about his position was the same thing that was striking about the Nunes Memo: Assertions without evidence.
Years ago, when we looked at the History Department's writing curriculum, the main thing we wanted to get across to students was that if you make an assertion, you have to have evidence to back it up. You can't just say that "Obummer is the corruptest president EVAH." Back it up. What's your evidence?
If it turns out your evidence is a Breitbart story and an op-ed from the WSJ...is that really evidence or just a concurring assertion?
The gist of the Nunes Memo is that Carter Page's civil rights were violated by a run amok cabal or anti-Trump people at the FBI. The problem is that there is no evidence to support this beyond the fact that this story is anti-Trump. Because it is anti-Trump, it must be the motivations of the people pursuing it that make it anti-Trump.
How do you reconcile the fact that the FBI is out of control with Michael Flynn's guilty plea? George Papadapoulos' guilty plea? The grand jury indictments of Paul Manafort and Richard Gates? How do you reconcile the "witch hunt" angle with Trump's on-air admission to Lester Holt that he is obstructing the Russia investigation? How do you reconcile any of this?
You close yourself off to competing facts. Opinions...OK, I'm not sure I need to read any more Ross Douthat. But look at the fact.
Please. The future of our Republic depends on it.
Saturday, February 3, 2018
Take It Away, Max
Max Boot was/is a neoconservative writer and, I guess, intellectual. Today, he's one of those former Bush acolytes like Bill Kristol who have swung hard into the anti-Trump orbit. His family's personal history in Russia is no doubt part of his calculus.
Anyway, he penned an authoritative takedown of Nunes' memo. What he gets at the heart of is the "epistemic closure" on the Right. Sure, it happens on the Left. A lot of the Left believes that America wants socialism, because everyone who comments on their blog wants socialism. But the Left - especially more centrist Liberals - have always been open to evidence. What Boot is pointing out (without really pointing it out) is how the Right has its own information ecosystem. This is similar to the Chait piece I referenced yesterday. It proceeds from the conclusion and then proceeds to marshall evidence to support that conclusion.
On Fox News - with the noble exception of poor, beleaguered Shep Smith - the Nunes memo is the smoking gun that proves that the FBI is a Democratic leaning organization trying to take out Dear Leader. For anyone outside that closed loop, the Nunes memo is all assertions without evidence.
What Boot points out is that it simply doesn't matter that the memo is a joke, because within the Fox-O-Sphere there is no need for it make sense or be credible or show logical consistency. All it needs to do is conform to the preconceived notions of Fox Nation.
I believe, strongly, that the Republican Party needs to get wiped out in the next two elections. It needs to purge itself of what Charlie Pierce calls the prion disease at the heart of its politics. America needs a sober, responsible center-right party. Right now, we have a bunch of raving, conspiracy addle lunatics who think the FBI is an extension of the Democratic Party.
If Democrats ride successive waves to power, it might not make enough of a difference if the Right Wing Information Loop isn't punctured.
Fox News is poisoning this country.
Anyway, he penned an authoritative takedown of Nunes' memo. What he gets at the heart of is the "epistemic closure" on the Right. Sure, it happens on the Left. A lot of the Left believes that America wants socialism, because everyone who comments on their blog wants socialism. But the Left - especially more centrist Liberals - have always been open to evidence. What Boot is pointing out (without really pointing it out) is how the Right has its own information ecosystem. This is similar to the Chait piece I referenced yesterday. It proceeds from the conclusion and then proceeds to marshall evidence to support that conclusion.
On Fox News - with the noble exception of poor, beleaguered Shep Smith - the Nunes memo is the smoking gun that proves that the FBI is a Democratic leaning organization trying to take out Dear Leader. For anyone outside that closed loop, the Nunes memo is all assertions without evidence.
What Boot points out is that it simply doesn't matter that the memo is a joke, because within the Fox-O-Sphere there is no need for it make sense or be credible or show logical consistency. All it needs to do is conform to the preconceived notions of Fox Nation.
I believe, strongly, that the Republican Party needs to get wiped out in the next two elections. It needs to purge itself of what Charlie Pierce calls the prion disease at the heart of its politics. America needs a sober, responsible center-right party. Right now, we have a bunch of raving, conspiracy addle lunatics who think the FBI is an extension of the Democratic Party.
If Democrats ride successive waves to power, it might not make enough of a difference if the Right Wing Information Loop isn't punctured.
Fox News is poisoning this country.
Friday, February 2, 2018
Projection Is A Powerful Drug, Part 176,982
Once again, Republican actions are explained best by taking their own preferences and plans and then imagining that they projected them onto others. As Jon Chait points out, the logic of the Nunes Memo is entirely backwards. It treats the cause as the effect. The FBI and other parts of the national security apparatus were legitimately concerned about Trump's ties to Russis and how close so many people - including but not limited to Carter Page - were to Russia. This made them worry that a possible president was compromised by Russia. So they investigated.
The Nunes Memo takes the fact that the FBI was freaked out by the evidence staring them in the face as evidence that the FBI was biased against Trump. This logic could be applied further: the DEA is biased against drug dealers; the Secret Service is biased against would-be assasins; ICE is biased against brown people (OK, that last one is true in more ways than one).
People investigating potential criminals tend to be biased against those potential criminals. That is why we don't let the FBI or the local police serve as judge, jury and executioner. They investigate the crimes, because they don't like crime.
The Republican Party, however, has spent an inordinate amount of time investigating nontroversies like Benghazi, Fast and Furious and Solyandra because of their political animus towards the object of the investigation. The point, as Representative McCarthy helpfully told us, of the Benghazi investigation was to harm Hillary Clinton. THAT is why you investigate someone: to create the appearance of wrong-doing, so that you can exploit that politically. Despite something like a half dozen Benghazi committees, the GOP couldn't find any evidence of wrong doing. Just like there was nothing in those damned emails.
It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter than there was no merit to all the Benghazi investigations after the first one found no wrong doing. What mattered was the political effects of the continuing investigations.
What the Nunes Memo represents is the projection of how Republicans conduct investigations onto the FBI. This has required that they first somehow contort the FBI into some vast leftist cabal, which...damn. Then, they impugn the entire FBI - Blue Lives Matter? All Lives Matter, Dude - in order to protect..Donald Trump? That's Nunes' endgame? Protect a man who would feed you to those sharks he's so terrified of if it got him a three point bump in an opinion poll?
Hell, Joe Walsh - former holder of the title of biggest asshole in the GOP, now elder statesman - has basically said that Nunes is a "partisan hack."
The Republican Party is having an existential crisis. As a political party, it exists to win elections. It's pretty good at that. But it also has to govern once it wins elections. The problem is that the party that was once a "sober, rational right of center" party has become an extension of Alex Jones' InfoWars and can only assume that everyone else in the world thinks and acts the same way.
At this point, even one Congressperson who supports Nunes and his actions getting re-elected would constitute a great national tragedy.
The Nunes Memo takes the fact that the FBI was freaked out by the evidence staring them in the face as evidence that the FBI was biased against Trump. This logic could be applied further: the DEA is biased against drug dealers; the Secret Service is biased against would-be assasins; ICE is biased against brown people (OK, that last one is true in more ways than one).
People investigating potential criminals tend to be biased against those potential criminals. That is why we don't let the FBI or the local police serve as judge, jury and executioner. They investigate the crimes, because they don't like crime.
The Republican Party, however, has spent an inordinate amount of time investigating nontroversies like Benghazi, Fast and Furious and Solyandra because of their political animus towards the object of the investigation. The point, as Representative McCarthy helpfully told us, of the Benghazi investigation was to harm Hillary Clinton. THAT is why you investigate someone: to create the appearance of wrong-doing, so that you can exploit that politically. Despite something like a half dozen Benghazi committees, the GOP couldn't find any evidence of wrong doing. Just like there was nothing in those damned emails.
It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter than there was no merit to all the Benghazi investigations after the first one found no wrong doing. What mattered was the political effects of the continuing investigations.
What the Nunes Memo represents is the projection of how Republicans conduct investigations onto the FBI. This has required that they first somehow contort the FBI into some vast leftist cabal, which...damn. Then, they impugn the entire FBI - Blue Lives Matter? All Lives Matter, Dude - in order to protect..Donald Trump? That's Nunes' endgame? Protect a man who would feed you to those sharks he's so terrified of if it got him a three point bump in an opinion poll?
Hell, Joe Walsh - former holder of the title of biggest asshole in the GOP, now elder statesman - has basically said that Nunes is a "partisan hack."
The Republican Party is having an existential crisis. As a political party, it exists to win elections. It's pretty good at that. But it also has to govern once it wins elections. The problem is that the party that was once a "sober, rational right of center" party has become an extension of Alex Jones' InfoWars and can only assume that everyone else in the world thinks and acts the same way.
At this point, even one Congressperson who supports Nunes and his actions getting re-elected would constitute a great national tragedy.
The Memo
I think Representative Ted Lieu put it best: Remember when Geraldo Rivera opened Capone's vault? It will be like that, but Geraldo has more integrity.
This is a partisan press release masquerading as "intel." The key here will be that media report it as such. The NYTimes, naturally, is already failing by calling it a "secret memo." No. It's a partisan press release that seeks to undermine the legitimacy of the FBI, so that Trump can fire Bob Mueller.
How hard is that to understand?
This is a partisan press release masquerading as "intel." The key here will be that media report it as such. The NYTimes, naturally, is already failing by calling it a "secret memo." No. It's a partisan press release that seeks to undermine the legitimacy of the FBI, so that Trump can fire Bob Mueller.
How hard is that to understand?
Know Who Your Enemy Is
Sun Tzu said that the two most important thing a general must know are himself and his enemy. We are currently watching a war between the Trumpist wing of the Republican party and the intelligence community.
In this war, it is clearly obvious that Trump knows neither himself nor his enemy.
What has been astounding is how many self-incriminating statements Trump has made since descending his golden elevator. He has admitted he fired James Comey to stop the Russia investigation. On live TV to Lester Holt. Every time his legal team comes up with some sort of plausible deniability, Trump goes on Twitter and shoots holes in it. His lack of self awareness is perhaps the most impressive thing about him.
He - and his acolytes like Devin Nunes - clearly don't know who they are messing with. These are the nation's secret keepers and lie detectors. If Trump does find a way to fire Mueller - and at this point it simply seems a matter of when, not if - everything that Mueller found out will find its way into the press. Remember, Nixon's Deep Throat was Mark Felt at the FBI. Trump's Deep Throat could be the whole bureau (if it's not Stormy Daniels...).
I am hopeful that when the history of this reign of error is over, historians and political scientists will be relieved that the would-be Generalissmo Franco of America is in fact an oafish clown who never read anything by Sun Tzu.
In this war, it is clearly obvious that Trump knows neither himself nor his enemy.
What has been astounding is how many self-incriminating statements Trump has made since descending his golden elevator. He has admitted he fired James Comey to stop the Russia investigation. On live TV to Lester Holt. Every time his legal team comes up with some sort of plausible deniability, Trump goes on Twitter and shoots holes in it. His lack of self awareness is perhaps the most impressive thing about him.
He - and his acolytes like Devin Nunes - clearly don't know who they are messing with. These are the nation's secret keepers and lie detectors. If Trump does find a way to fire Mueller - and at this point it simply seems a matter of when, not if - everything that Mueller found out will find its way into the press. Remember, Nixon's Deep Throat was Mark Felt at the FBI. Trump's Deep Throat could be the whole bureau (if it's not Stormy Daniels...).
I am hopeful that when the history of this reign of error is over, historians and political scientists will be relieved that the would-be Generalissmo Franco of America is in fact an oafish clown who never read anything by Sun Tzu.
Thursday, February 1, 2018
It's Not That Bad
I mean the assualt on American democracy is that bad.
But the Democratic party is better positioned to fight back against it than people think. Seriously, peeps. The election of 2016 was profoundly strange. It doesn't predict anything but the past.
But the Democratic party is better positioned to fight back against it than people think. Seriously, peeps. The election of 2016 was profoundly strange. It doesn't predict anything but the past.
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