The Aristocrats!

We all knew the punchline to Cohen's testimony: both sides would see what they wanted to see.  The GOP saw Cohen as a liar who couldn't be trusted.  Cohen is a liar, he has lied.  (So did Elliott Abrams, but questioning his integrity is beyond the Pale.) Of course, this time he brought some receipts.

As with all thing Trump, we got a series of what should be explosive, career ending allegation with enough proof to warrant impeachment hearings. And yet, there was a broad sense of...yeah, we knew that.  Honestly, if/when the pee tape comes out, we will all be...yeah, we know that, while Republicans will point out that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez urinates and who's the real hypocrite here.

Speaking of AOC...man, she gets more impressive the more you see of her.  Not as a policy wonk, necessarily, but she does politics really, really well.  Her social media skills are as impressive as anyone in Congress, but what she did yesterday was brilliant.  She's been scolded as a lightweight, so she comes in, focuses her questions for Cohen on further avenues of investigation, gets him to name names, gets him to admit why we need to subpoena his tax returns, doesn't make a bloviating speech and finishes before her time expires.  She seemed the only one who realized no one really gives a crap about those speeches unless they are dumpster fires.

Speaking of which, the GOP's constant parade of "but I have a black friend" was...I mean, what the living hell. If there is a greater expression of why our conversations about race and racism founder before they even begin, it's this idea that if I'm nice to a person of color that means I can't be racist.  Racism isn't about how you treat individuals, it's about how you treat a group. It's about how you see individuals you don't personally know as being representative of their group.  It's about power. 

Cohen is back testifying behind closed doors to the House Intelligence Committee.  The legacy of this hearing is tough to gauge.  Unlike John Dean, Cohen didn't add substantial knew evidence, though there was just enough.  Cohen reputedly has tapes of conversations with Trump, but those weren't disclosed.  Basically, he just added more bricks to the edifice of Trump's Tower of Corruption. 

It is amazing that Republicans continue to defend this man, to vote for his stupid border "emergency" and sing his praises.  They are either colossally stupid or so terrified of the MAGAT crowed that they dare not let a sliver of daylight emerge between themselves and Orange Julius Ceasar.

Still, these hearings and every utterance issued on his behalf needs to be archived and ready for when they will inevitably say that Trump was "not a true conservative."  Because it seems in 2019 that the only thing "conservatism" stands for is doing things the opposite of anyone to the left of John Kasich.

Roma

Last night, I finally watched Roma, and while I haven't seen Green Book, let's face it I already have.  White person learns not to be racist by discovering black people are...people.  Got it.  Seen that.

Roma, however, is not like anything I've recently or maybe ever.  It combines absolute mastery of the craft of film making with an expression of love for his childhood in every frame of the movie.  There is something tender and empathic in every scene, despite many of the shots being wide shots and pans.  He eschews that quick-cutting, frenetic film technique for something intimate and meditative.  There is very little soundtrack, beyond the soundtrack of daily living - dogs barking, birds twittering, the music of street noise.  It creates little crescendos of emotion that feel just like real life, and though the plot is slim, it has a narrative propulsion that surprised me.

I still have a few more to see, but I will be surprised if there was a better movie last year.

Cohen Produces No New Information

Maybe his testimony under questioning will be different, but his written statement does not offer any new information:  Trump is a crook and a racist and he colluded with Russia to undermine Clinton.

Yeah.

We knew that already.

Fatigue

Maybe Michael Cohen will divulge some deep dark secrets.

Maybe the Senate will pass a resolution condemning Trump's BS emergency.

Maybe Parliament will un-do the Brexit mess.

Maybe the Mueller report will offer some clarity.

But honest to God, it is so exhausting keeping up with the puke funnel that is the news these days.

Voting Problems

To my great surprise, it appears as if the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences uses a preferential voting system for Best Picture.  Basically, you pick your top five of the nominated films. If a film doesn't gather a certain threshold of first place votes, it is eliminated and the ballot then becomes a vote for the second place film.

When you have a broad slate of candidates - as in the case for Best Picture, or any Oscar - this system is designed to select a winner who can garner the most support across a broad swath of the electorate.

So how did  The Shape of Water and Green Book win, when most people agree they weren't the best pictures of the year? 

Most likely, voters tend to have a favorite (maybe even The Favourite) and then a list of movies that they would be fine having win the award.  Green Book is a perfectly OK movie, it seems, and was likely a lot of voters 3rd or 4th choice.  But as their personal favorite (maybe even The Favourite) was eliminated, it tended to nudge the result towards a broad, bland choice. 

The system sometimes works, as it did with Moonlight, but it tends to reward mediocrity and lowest agreeable candidate. 

As Churchill said, "Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others that have been tried from time to time."

Mueller Won't Save Us

Read this.

Captured By The Past

The left is pretty pissed that we might have a position on Venezuela.  Chris Murphy has a tweet string wherein he called for caution on any news coming out of Colombia/Venezuela, because Trump wants a war.  Then, in one of the tweets, he said we should pressure Maduro to step down and have free and fair elections.  This is precisely what the opposition within Venezuela wants. 

The reaction, including from people I generally respect, is "I remember Iran/Guatemala/Iraq/Chile" and then pivoting to a widespread condemnation of American imperialism and neo-imperialism.

But sometimes, it does make sense to pressure an illegitimate government.  Apartheid South Africa? What about the pressures we brought to bear on the Soviet Union in the '80s? Tunisia?

Even armed intervention isn't always awful.  I think Wilson did the right thing for the right reason in the wrong way when he helped overthrow Huerta in Mexico.  Carranza resented him for it, but Mexico was better off deposing yet another caudillo and installing a very flawed electoral dictatorship of one party rule that eventually became a true, if fragile, democracy.  I think getting rid of Noriega in Panama was a good thing.

America made terribly short sighted decisions during the Cold War with regards to Lumumba, Allende and Mosaddegh. You can throw Diem in there, though he as awful. In fact, if I had to guess, I would say the institutional memory within the CIA today is somewhat reticent about regime change.

That doesn't mean that America shouldn't have a voice.  And it certainly doesn't mean that Maduro is anything but a thug running a petrostate as a patrimonial crime syndicate.  Maybe some people are getting sucked into the "socialist" label that Maduro borrowed from Chavez, but using oil money to pay off supporters isn't socialism.  New flash.  The People's Republic of North Korea isn't a republic.  Just because Maduro calls himself a socialist doesn't mean that he is.

Venezuela is in a crisis because it is poorly governed.  The people of Venezuela realize this.  That's the point.  Yes, we shouldn't be taking active measures to depose Maduro, but we should be supporting those on the ground who want him gone.  We should be working towards free an fair election in Venezuela.

Try To Be Cool In A World Of Hot Takes

We are getting burned alive by hot takes.  The speed of the internet allows for everything to be felt and decided all at once.  This results in the Jussie Smollet travesty, the ridiculous overreaction to a heavily edited video of Diane Feinstein, and whatever will come out of the Mueller report.  We have a tendency to write headlines that create clickbait rather than reflect the content of the article. We leap so quickly to form judgments that we fail to allow proper vetting to take place.  As we move into the territory of digital deepfakes, we will see increasing incidents of people jumping to pre-conceived conclusions based on immediate readings of complicated events.  Confirmation bias will rein supreme, as everyone who is Extremely Online will stumble over themselves to be heard first on this very important issue that people will forget about in a week.

Democracy can't survive a culture of hot takes.  It requires reflection and contemplation.  You have to ruminate on important issues; that is in fact the point of representative government.  We elect people to take the time to understand an issue and come to a reasoned conclusion about how to address it.

Does anyone think that describes our current political climate?

Everyone is an expert, everyone has a statement to make, and what's worst, everyone has to make it first.  The rush to be the first to comment on an event leads to myriad bad conclusions bereft of all the evidence and the reasoned consideration of all angles.

This isn't about "both sides" or some sort of mushy centrism.  It's about finding your way to the best outcome.  It's about a public discourse that is rooted in fact, not feeling.  Feeling is the terrain of demagogues, and we should always be on guard against being swept away by feelings, when it comes to big complicated issues that we don't have personal experience in.

Socialism

Jon Chait has a long history of trolling the Left, but I think he's right about this.  Socialism has - as its endpoint - the state ownership of the means of production.  Democratic socialism wants to get there via elections.  Jeremy Corbyn is a Democratic socialist. 

The Democratic party is a social democratic party.  They want markets, but they want those markets controlled and regulated by the state to varying degrees.  Dysfunctional markets - like the US health care market - require more intervention, as do corrupt markets - the 2007-8 banking/real estate industry.  But the markets for food and basic commodities don't need regulating beyond safety and so forth. 

Chait is also right that the re-interjection of socialism into the debate allows the Democratic party to move left in meaningful ways, by playing off actual proposals to the rhetoric of its more leftward members.

What A Month This Week Has Been

And I still couldn't avoid this clusterfuck of a story.

Who Will Hit Sanders?

Bernie Sanders is a terribly vulnerable candidate. He has weak ties to the institutions of the Democratic Party and has excelled at being an asshole to important stakeholders.  There are still bitter feelings from 2016.  His best route to the nomination is that the field is so divided.

There is a ton of opposition research on Sanders. Clinton never used it, because she was trying to unify the party.  But it's there. 

Some candidate needs to kamikaze Sanders by going at him hard on his vulnerabilities.  It can't be Warren or Harris, because they are frontrunners.  It can't be Gillibrand, because she already has the Franken baggage.  In fact, it probably should be a make candidate.  Buttigieg doesn't seem like that type of politician. Klobuchar would be an interesting choice, but I think it will be someone like Hickenlooper or Sherrod Brown, if they run.

It needs to happen sooner rather than later.  Don't let that sense of inevitability sink in.

Small Town Journalism

It's important that small towns have vibrant voices that reflect the....wait...

WHAT?

How Are You Holding Up

during our national emergency?

History Doesn't Repeat

But it rhymes.

Never Forget

The real villain in America's on-going descent into crazy town is Mitch McConnell.

I presume that McConnell knows that the Courts will strike down this emergency stuff.

But what if they don't?

I hope President Warren is prioritizing a list of emergencies that she can declare...guns, climate change, wealth inequality, campaign finance...

I Just....

Let's revel in the "argument" that we should support the death penalty, because Jesus was executed.

What, Exactly, Are They Waiting For?

I find it interesting that the House hasn't already subpoenaed Trump's tax returns. We know that Trump has committed years of tax crimes thanks to the Times.

What are they waiting for?  Presumably, they want to get the government open for a longer period of time, and hopefully that will happen now. After that, maybe we can start opening up the vaults full of criminality that is Trump, Inc.

Where Are You Going With This?

Every two weeks or so, Jon Chait decides to troll the Left.  I'm not sure why he feels compelled to do this. Some of his points have merit.  The broad outlines of the "Green New Deal" are fuzzy and overlapping and some of them are counterproductive or inefficient.  Kind of like the first New Deal.

He seems to want to pick an online fight with Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, which is really a form of digital suicide.  Yet, he feels compelled at times to waddle into the threshing blades.

There's an argument to be made that the GND is a flawed proposal that needs tweaking, but Chait's tactics aren't designed to get there.  He's dismissive and even petulant in his criticisms.

Why?

Rank Stupidity

Look, we know Donald Trump is a moron.  Don't believe me?  Just listen to every word he says.

But there has to be a limit on the stupidity of the GOP Congress. 

If we shut the government down again, that will be an exercise is complete stupidity.  It does sound like Democrats are staking a position that is justifiable on policy grounds, but could muddy the waters politically.  Trying to use the CR to curtail the abuses by ICE is laudable, but that strikes me as something that should happen through the budgetary process.  You just know the press are salivating over the chance to pillory the Democrats for the next shutdown.  You know fairandbalancedbothsides.

Calvinball

The old comic strip, Calvin and Hobbes, had a game called Calvinball, which was an anarchic exercise in chaos where the rules changed to suit whatever Calvin or Hobbes thought they should be at any given moment.

We are living in a prolonged game of Calvinball.

The various scandals coming out of Virginia are a case in point.  The photo on Northam's page is racist, but it's confusing exactly what Northam's relationship is to that photo.  What is not confusing is his terrible, terrible response to the crisis.  The allegations against Justin Fairfax are unarguably worse, as he is currently being accused of out and out rape.  Attorney General Mark Herring, on the other hand, looks like he just showed some bad judgment at a costume party.  Yet, the current climate means that he looks just as bad as Northam, which I don't exactly buy.

Meanwhile, Trump is in the White House.

It's as if Democrats are playing a game by one set of rules, and Republicans are off playing by an entirely different set.  This first came to light over a year ago with Roy Moore and Al Franken.  Moore was credibly accused to statutory rape.  Franken was credibly accused of groping women.  One is a crime, one is creepy and wrong, but in the context of most of the accusations, not a crime.  Yet it was Franken who resigned and Moore who stayed on the ballot (luckily going down to defeat).

Meanwhile, Kristin Gillibrand is the one who is paying the price - unbelievably - for Franken's ouster. 

Trump has boasted of sexual assault on tape.  He has pursued racist policies as president and as a landlord and business man.  While he is very unpopular, he retains the support of the Republican party.

Democrats, in short, are working to live up to the principles of racial justice and sexual equality that they profess, and it is extracting a price.  Republicans are apparently unconcerned with any principles, and perhaps it is extracting a price as well.

But it's Calvinball, and we have no idea what the score might be.

Bezos Exposes Pecker

This story is just bonkers.  Of course, it's not surprising.  The links between AMI and Trump should surprise no one.  And at least it's amusing.

Trump's ability to turn everything he touches to shit is going to lay waste to large swathes of the conservative ecosystem.

Getting From Here To There

Josh Marshall lays out a strong case for why much of the sloganeering around Medicare-For-All needs to be tempered with some sense of reality.  Yes, we need to take the next step on health care, but getting rid of private insurance would be a political nightmare.  Perhaps it would be worth it.  Or perhaps we need to keep pushing the envelope of what the government offers in a methodical, practice way.

The first issue is the idea of "Medicare-For-All."  Medicare is currently a patchwork system of public and private insurance, so it doesn't work to create something like Britain's NHS.  If you want the government and the government alone to offer something, try Medicaid. But Medicaid is run through the states, and we've seen how perilous that can be, with large states like Texas and Georgia refusing the Medicaid expansion under ACA.  One reform would be to re-center Medicaid in the federal government, and then use that as a program for everyone under age 18.  You're born, you're on Medicaid.  The reason is that Medicaid is a more comprehensive health insurance with more experience covering children and things like pre-natal care.  There aren't a lot of people on Medicare having babies.

The second step would be allowing for an extremely robust public option.  Anyone and everyone should be able to buy into Medicaid (or Medicare, if you insist).  That means individuals can buy in on the exchanges, but it also means Exxon could buy a public plan for their employees.  So could school districts and police departments.  So could a mom and pop business. 

If, as we believe, public health insurance is more efficient and cost-effective, any entity with a budget would want to insure through the public option.  In 5-10 years, 90% of the population would wind up on Medicaid, and then it becomes the task of making it tax-based rather than as a benefit through work or Obamacare.

That lacks the sexy sizzle of Bernie's "Medicare-For-All," but as always, Sanders' strength is making a complex plan simple.  M4A is so simple it can fit on an index card, but as the president* noted, "Who knew health care was so complicated?"  But policy is, by definition, complicated.  That's why Sanders has never written a major piece of legislation; he's a big picture guy.  That's fine, but it's not a recipe for success when mucking about with a major part of the economy.

Reclaim Medicaid for the states; insure all children; most robust public option.  That would get us much further down the road to something along the lines of single payer.

Pretty Words That Come To Nothing

Apparently, Trump was allowed by Nancy (or as some call her, Nancy) to give his speech in the House last night.  Apparently, he gave a speech that was part anodyne SOTU and part Trumpian wail against brown people and Democrats, all while saying he liked brown people and Democrats. 

Conor Friedsdorf was on the Twitter saying that if Trump had given this address at his inauguration, we would be evaluating his presidency differently.

This is bullshit.

Or not.  On the one hand, if Trump had adopted the usual rhetoric of politicians, he probably wouldn't be so polarizing.  Trump's saving "grace" is that he's incapable of getting out of his own way on these issues.  And make no mistake, so many of our pundits live in some fantasy world where "The West Wing," or "Dave" or "Mr. Smith Goes To Washington" is a blueprint for governing, rather than airy fantasies more in line with Harry Potter or Lord of the Rings.  They think these speeches matter, and perhaps they might have, had he been giving them.  Trump has said the quiet parts of the GOP out loud, and that has made him an easy target.  But what happens when the next Trumpist candidate comes forth.  What happens when we have some slick mofo like Tom Cotton who knows how to play the dogwhistle to mobilize the racists without alienating the Nice Polite Republicans?

But the fact is, Trump is Trump. If he had given nice speeches, he would not be Trump.  Trumpism requires the "American Carnage" theme.  Trumpism can't exist debating the margins of policy, it must be confrontational. Trumpism is political bloodsport.  It is the natural language of a political movement that will literally vote to hurt themselves as long as it pisses of "the libtards."  You have farmers who are getting killed on Trump's BS trade wars, but they still sing his praises.  People whose economic position is stagnant or declining who cheer on tax cuts for billionaires, because something something socialism.

The consistent insistence from some quarters that Trump be someone other than Trump has to be pushed back against at every moment.  That is the idea of normalizing Trump.  He must be marginalized.  Trump has to become a millstone around the neck of every Republican running for every office in this country.

A Glimmer

Could the Republicans be ready to break with Trump?  Also, the one concrete thing Trump accomplished - his massive, regressive tax cut -  is apparently coming back to bite a bunch of people in the ass.  Be interesting to watch that, as right now it's just whispers.

What A Month This Weekend Has Been

Without divulging too much, Real Life just kicked the living shit out of me this weekend, despite this being my weekend off to relax and recuperate before the long, dismal march to spring break.

So... the Patriots suck, Ralph Northam sucks, Dana Perino's queso sucks.

I think we are caught up.

If Your Mom Is Still With Us

Give her a hug.

Or a phone call to tell her you love her.

Getting My Hopes Up

I really shouldn't do this, but I'm anticipating an interesting news cycle or twelve.

First, Roger Stone's career of being a criminal ratfucker goes back to Nixon.  Wonder what the FBI will find on his hard drives.

Second, Mueller just dropped a bunch more sealed indictments.  Is it time for Don, Jr. to call his lawyer?