Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Prediction


I'm optimistic.

Presidential Election:

Obama 332
Romney 206

But that depends on shenanigans being kept to a minimum in Florida and....

The Senate

Maine - Angus King +1 Dem
Massachusetts - Elizabeth Warren +1 Dem
Connecticut - Chris Murphy
Pennsylvania - Bob Casey
Ohio - Sherrod Brown
Indiana - Joe Donnelly +1 Dem
Virginia - Tim Kaine
Missouri - Claire McCaskill
Wisconsin - Tammy Baldwin
North Dakota - Rick Berg Rep +1
Montana - Jon Tester
New Mexico - Martin Heinrich
Arizona - Jeff Flake
Nevada - Shelly Berkeley Dem +1

The last is my upset pick of the night.  If Harry "I'm not a pornstar" Reid can mobilize his machine, Berkeley pulls off the upset

Democrats pick up three seats.  But Baldwin could lose and Heitkamp could win, so it could be a net of zero to a gain of five.  Arizona isn't out of the equation, either.

(Also note that I'm assuming Angus King caucuses with the Democrats, and I resisted the urge to list Murphy as a Democrat pick up with the ouster of Joe Lieberman.)

The House

Who the hell knows?  I say the Democrats pick up 5-10 seats.

Comparison

Look at the NRO four years ago.
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/226223/predicting-tonight/nro-symposium#

I'll take Nate Silver...

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