Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Thursday, August 3, 2017


Some Dude at WaPo says we shouldn't count out Trump when his poll numbers are around 37%.  His argument is that Trump might be approaching his floor, since hardcore Republicans still support him.

This is flawed for two reasons.

First, if you're the Democrats, you shouldn't give two shits how Trump does among Republicans.  In the coming years, look at how many Republicans there are.  What I anticipate with Trump is more and more old school centrist Republicans becoming independents.  Some of those will cross party lines in 2018 and 2020 to muzzle Mango Mussolini.  As many have noted, Trump isn't an anomaly in the Republican party; he's an anomaly among Republican elites, but he is their base distilled, tinted orange and with a wig slapped on top.

Second, any president at the end of six months in office who is this far underwater with a relatively robust economy is in deep, deep trouble.  Trump drew two inside straights to become president.  This is what everyone seems to forget.  He needed to eek out marginal victories in either Wisconsin/Michigan or Pennsylvania.  He wound with both, but that was largely because he held the same sort of appeal to same sort of voters.  That appeal will largely dissipate with time.

Trump is guaranteed a strong primary challenger that the Establishment lines up behind.  Win or lose the primary, the GOP will be riven.  There is no greater predictor for an incumbent president losing an election than a strong primary challenge.  Ask Taft, Carter, or Bush 41.  LBJ went so far as to quit the race.

Yes, we are likely stuck with Trump for at least another year and a half or more, so in that sense, the article is right.

But that has nothing to do with the polls.

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