Longman and Marshall: Who The Hell Knows?

As usual, Martin Longman says smart things on the Internet.  On the idea that Trump can be trusted to follow through on what may or may not be a DREAM Act, he begins with this rock solid analysis:

It’s admittedly hard to read a man like Donald Trump. He isn’t consistent. His word is not good. His comprehension of some of the basics of our system of government is shockingly low. His understanding of history, both recent and distant, is horribly flawed. His grasp of what is easy and difficult doesn’t appear to exist. He beat all his political opponents without seeming to have a realistic and overarching strategy, but more through a series of tactical battles that involved as many big losses as big wins. He lives in the moment and doesn’t follow even a basic script. He’s driven by lower emotions and is blinded to larger concerns.

Tough to argue with any of that, and it is why trying to predict some aspects of Trump's actions is a fool's game.  However, Trump is also very predictable, as Josh Marshall points out:

Trump remains the same narcissist and predator he’s always been. He will never change. But Trump is also profoundly needy. He craves attention, affirmation and praise. He rails at the “failing New York Times” but there may literally be no public institution whose approval and attention he’s craved more in his whole life. If Democrats can leverage his desire for praise and “wins” to save 800,000 Dreamers they should grab the chance. And I think they can and will do so with eyes wide open.

Again, that's solid analysis of Trump's motivations.  I think Trump feels he got some good press for keeping the lights on until Christmas, keeping the US out of default and providing hurricane relief.  The Presidency benefits from showing an ability to govern.

Since Trump is primarily a person of appetites and neuroses, good press is more important than ideological consistency.  In fact, Trump has no discernible ideology in any traditional sense.

As Longman notes:

He’s recently learned through hard experience that he can’t rely on the Republicans in Congress to unite behind must-pass legislation, and now he’s relying on them to pass the DREAM Act. What if they can’t, or won’t?

Again, this is a solid read on both the reality in Washington and in Trump's head.  The Republicans have given him nothing but defeats.  Working with the Democrats gave him his first victory since the Gorsuch nomination.  If Democrats and enough Republicans can pass a DREAM Act, why not take a victory?

Trump's very narcissism and ignorance about government may actually be able to result in some good legislation.

The question will be this:  What if Trump and a bipartisan coalition pass a DREAM Act, an infrastructure bill and some tepid tax reform?  Do his followers and the Hard Core MAGA types fall in line? Or do they brand him a RINO/Hidden Democrat and launch a civil war?