Too Much Horribleness To Process

The firehose of shit coming through the American political system in the Age of Trump is impossible to properly process.

But here's an attempt: Roy Moore doesn't believe that women should run for office, and he's really not so sure about the whole women voting thing.

Nevertheless, Roy Moore will win a majority of white women's votes in Alabama.  Because Baby Jeebus.

Deck Chairs

Rumors swirl that there will be a shakeup in the Trump National Security team.  Tillerson is out.  Pompeo moves from CIA to State.  Tom Cotton moves to CIA.

Two things I notice. 

First, essentially replacing Tillerson with Cotton makes for a lot more Iran Hawks in the NatSec team.  I'm coming to worry that Trump will start a war to boost his flagging ratings.  I hope (?) that enough voices like McMaster, Mattis and Kelly have impressed upon him the dangers of attacking North Korea.  The dead would top a million human souls.  Given Trump's bellicose anti-Islamic bigotry, strikes against Iran makes "sense" in the narrow meaning of "likely to happen."  Of course, any conflict with Iran will be a disaster.  It will legitimize the rule of men like Khamenei and delegitimatize the reformist politics of men like Rouhani.  It will spike oil prices as the Straits of Hormuz will be closed.  It will reignite sectarian warfare across the Middle East.  Still, replacing Tillerson with Cotton makes it all more likely.

Second, Tillerson went from a "respected" CEO of one of the largest corporations in the world to becoming a whipping boy for a "moron."  He is a Republican in the sense that he is a rich, old white guy who doesn't like it when the gubmint says he can't dump pollutants in the groundwater.  He is not, however, a partisan creature.

I look forward to his tell-all tour. 

No Confidence

Ezra Klein makes the case that impeachment is whatever Congress says it should be - that's what the Framers intended.  I think he's right.  The necessity for a 2/3rds vote in the Senate necessitates that it's not a simple vote of no-confidence.  It has to be manifest that the President should be removed from office.

What is unquestionably clear is that Trump has absolutely zero business being President.  It was clear before the election, but the Republican electorate decided that beating Hillary was more important than having a president who wasn't mentally, emotionally and temperamentally unfit to hold the office.

I think Klein is right up and down the argument.

I also think not enough Congressional Republicans have the spine God gave an earthworm.

Normalizing Predation

Paradoxically, I think that all the allegations that are coming out against various male members of the media and Congress are actually increasing the odds that Roy Moore becomes a United States Senator.

Every time a new report comes out that Matt Lauer or Garrison Keillor or whomever was a creepy perv who used power for sexual exploitation, it actually tends to normalize that behavior.  I'm not saying that this is a reason not to come forward with these allegations, but if you are being told, "Don't vote for Roy Moore, he preys on young women." Well, who isn't preying on young women?  Now, obviously, what Roy Moore did is categorically worse than anything these other guys did.  He was preying on under-aged girls.  That's a category difference. 

But, if you're a Republican from Alabama, and you were wavering in your support for Moore, because he was an awful human being...well, who are we to judge?  Aren't we all sinners?  Isn't the continued presence of Al Franken and John Conyers just proof that what Roy Moore did isn't disqualifying?  Again, that's bullshit logic.  Moore preyed on a 14 year old.  But it doesn't have to make sense to work. 

I was really hopeful that Republican women in the suburbs of Birmingham, Mobile, Montgomery and Hunstville would gag on Moore.  That they would turn away from a guy who would molest children.  But the drumbeat of revelations - and what is more, revelations that target media and Democrats - will allow them to sigh regretfully and vote for the predator.

Just like they did last November.

Meltdown

Trump has been even more unhinged than usual on Twitter recently.  He's also apparently divorced from reality.  This morning, he retweeted a video from a British hate group.  His response to Matt Lauer's firing is to change the subject to the fact that NBC runs stories he doesn't like ("fake news").

I think Donald Trump is a profoundly stupid man, because he thinks he's smart.  One of the first things a smart person realizes is how much she doesn't know.  But I also think he's a compendium of psychological maladies, and the stress of the presidency seems to be exacerbating them.

Thanks, Republicans.  Hope you enjoy your tax cuts for billionaires.

Silver Lining

If the Kick America In The Nuts Act of 2017 actually passes, I really like this take.  Glass half full, bishes.

Read This

Where does racism come from?  Segregation.  Which causes more racism.

Keeping Score

So, in the last few days...

- Trump kind of endorsed a child predator for Alabama Senate.
- Kellyanne Conway violated the Hatch Act.
- Wall Street Watchdog CFPB is under assault.
- Rex Tillerson continues to dismantle the entire State Department.
- Trump dropped a racial slur about Native Americans at a ceremony to honor Native Americans.
- The Republicans continue to march bravely into the late 19th century with their tax bill.
- The NY Times is normalizing Nazis.

How the hell will our system of government survive another three years of this shitshow?

I mean, we barely survived Obama wearing a tan suit.

Happy Christmas Season

This came on the Twitter:

Carlos A. Rodríguez@HappySonship

Christmas is about believing what a woman said about her sex life.

Christmas is about a family finding safety as refugees.

Christmas is about a child in need receiving support from the wealthy.

Christmas is about God identifying himself with the marginalized not the powerful.

Whip Counts 2.0

Jesus.  Does anyone actually support the Kick America in the Nuts Act of 2017?

The Week Of Whip Counts

The Kick America In The Nuts Act of 2017 could come to a vote as soon as this week.  Turns out this bill will immisserate the poor even more than we thought.  Somewhere, Paul Ryan just became semi-erect.

Since it is a truly atrocious bill - a Democratic attack ad in legislative form - all 48 Democrats are opposed.  That means three Republicans need to flip to stop this from happening.  So who should we keep an eye on?

First there are the "Moderates."  Susan Collins is a likely no vote.  Lisa Murkowski remains in play.  In their avarice to slash taxes on the rich, the Republicans have also found a way to cripple Obamacare's premium structures.  However, that could put Murkowski in the "No" column.

Second, we have the "Senatorial Mandarins."  John McCain has been railing against the destruction of Senatorial norms, including "regular order."  This bill didn't go through regular order, so he might give it a literal thumbs down.  The Mandarins also overlap with the next group: The Deficit Hawks.

The Deficit Hawks are the most interesting group.  For the most part, the GOP doesn't give two shits about deficits, when it comes to cutting taxes on rich people.  They care about them only when it comes time for Democrats to enact social spending.  However, this bill is a fiscal nightmare, to the degree that some quite conservative members have a problem with it. Koch entity Ron Johnson is currently opposed, and Jerry Moran of Kansas has expressed real doubts, since his state has seen the traumatic effects of rampant tax cutting.  Kansas is a complete disaster because of precisely the sort of bill the GOP is proposing. Steve Daines or Montana has registered his disapproval. Who knows where Rand Paul stands, but presumably it's not next to a riding mower.

Finally, we have the Retirees.  McCain likely fits into this group, but so do Jeff Flake and Bob Corker, who share concerns with the Mandarins and the Deficit Hawks.  This really is a shitty bill, and if those two really cared about the legacy of this Congress, passing a completely terrible bill just to say that you've passed SOMETHING, might be too much for them.

Of course, if they make the plan palatable to Murkowski, Moran, Daines and Corker, with McCain and Collins voting against it and Pence breaking the tie, that still means it has to be reconciled with the House, and if it doesn't punish the poor enough, you could lose votes there, too.

The solution, of course, is to pass a much narrower band of tax cuts that mostly go to the working and middle classes, bypasses the poor and then gifts money to corporations through a corporate tax cut.  The estate tax and pass through corporations don't get any cuts, and you don't cut taxes on the 1% by much at all.  That bill - while also damaging to the country's fiscal situation - would by much more popular and easier to pass.

The Republican party has almost come to believe Trump's insane Twitter boasts.  They think Mr. 47% of the popular vote and their gerrymandered districts constitute some mandate to do something drastic.

The great punchline of 2017 is that Trump voters are motivated by "economic anxiety" when they are really motivated by racial and status anxiety.  However, the bill that the GOP is proposing could be used as a cudgel by Democrats in 2018 and 2020.  It's amazing that they want to go through with it.

UPDATE: Add James Lankford to the Deficit Hawks.  I'm skeptical that they will actually hold the line, but...anything that gets the Good Guys to 51.

The Curtis Manifesto

Curtis Blow levels the wood on Trump.

If Only It Would Make A Difference

Martin Longman has flagged a basic confession about what Russia was trying to do in the 2016 election (and other elections elsewhere).  This was written, apparently, a few days after the election last year.  It's a Russian propagandist spiking the football about Russia's involvement in the campaign.

I do think small but solid majorities of Americans believe that Russia had a hand in electing Trump.  That's one of many reasons why his approval ratings are historically low.

The problem - as always - is not the reasonable people.  It's the Republicans.

Not the various mouthbreathing MAGA types who are rolling coal and stockpiling guns for the coming race war, but the average everyday Republicans who voted for Trump because he wasn't Hillary.  They got played.  They don't won't to hear that they got played.

So, even though we have a Russian basically laying out the early process of how they started helping Trump, including the role of Cambridge Analytical, it simply won't make a difference for the fact averse, GOP universe.

And I don't know how we correct that, because if 40-50% of the population simply doesn't care about objective facts...How does democracy work?

Well, This Is Interesting

There is some evidence that Michael Flynn has started cooperating with Robert Mueller.  Flynn has always been the linchpin to the whole sordid Russia story.  I was surprised when Mueller didn't ask for indictments of Flynn when he got the Grand Jury to indict Manafort.  Apparently, he was simply squeezing Flynn, especially with threats to indict Flynn's son.

As a side note, it's very, very unlikely that Mueller concludes his investigations without uncovering a shitload of dirt on Trump.  Trump's business model in NY real estate is crooked as hell.  

What's sad is that we could've been spared the worst president since Andrew Johnson if only we had the legal resources and political desire to prosecute wealthy people for their crimes with the same vigor we go after guys selling dime bags of weed on the corner.

ADDED: It's a pretty good sign that Trump has gotten bad news, if he starts attacking black athletes in his Twitter feed.

Let's Stop Pretending

That Trump is anything but a bog standard racist.

Trumpism In A Nutshell

This article shows the lengths that the Trumpenproletariat will go to "piss off libtards."  In fact, I would argue that "piss off libtards" is the entire ideology of the Trumpenproletariat.  It's not about tax cuts or health insurance or the wall; it's about pissing people off.  It's about the destruction of our common polity.

Things Are Getting Bad

I mean, that headline is kind of redundant here in Trumpistan, but I'm suddenly getting queasy.

I have presumed that the GOP tax cuts were in jeopardy, because there was no way to reconcile the desires of the Nihilist wing of the GOP with the Byrd Rule.  Then, they came out with a tax plan so cartoonishly evil that I figured it was DOA.  Treating graduate school tuition remission as income?  That's...I mean that's just evil.  Killing the SALT deduction?  Political suicide.

This tax plan is an attack ad written specifically for Democrats.

The GOP then doubled down by trying to remove the individual mandate from Obamacare.  I thought that might peel off Collins and Murkowski, but now Murkowski says she's fine with that. 

Right now, the only hope of killing this monstrosity of a giveaway to the 1% is to try and run out the clock, hope Doug Jones wins in Alabama (I'm feeling less certain about that recently) and then hope Collins and maybe Corker kill it on the merits.  I'm not convinced Johnson and Paul will vote against it because it's not evil enough. I think they will accept that it's just evil enough for them.

From net neutrality to elephant trophies to crushing grad students to giving away hundreds of billions to those who already have it...We really are being ruled by the worst people.

The Further Adventures Of Economic Anxiety

Adam Serwer has a long piece at the Atlantic over the fallacy that "economic anxiety" gave Trump his votes.  For the most part, I think he's right.  However, I also think that anxiety of any kind - economic or status anxiety - can trigger self-interest.  There is a segment of American society that would never identify themselves as racists, but as soon as they feel threatened by circumstances, they activate a prejudice against people different than them.

Serwer begins by looking at David Duke (Pat Buchanan would be another harbinger of Trump), but it's less about people who admire Duke and more about people who - the moment things get dicey - want to throw off anyone who isn't just like them.  Give the country broadbased prosperity, and I would wager support for minorities would grow.

I don't think it's a deep seated racism that created Trump, necessarily, as a a situationally activated racism.

So, is it race or economics?  It's both.

There Is Never Only One

Another accusation against Al Franken.  He's marking time.  Any more shoes drop, and I don't think he can survive.  Time for Mark Dayton to get Lori Swanson on speed-dial.

Tax Politics

Democrats should feel pretty good about the politics of this latest legislative monstrosity: The American Kick In The Nuts Act of 2017.  Republicans have written a too slick tax cut bill that allows Democrats to bend the truth a bit about how taxes will rise on lower income families.  Republicans are likely anticipating that those tax increases - designed to get around the Byrd Rule - will be nuked when they come due.  Maybe, sure.  But that's not the bill the GOP will be voting for.  The bill they are voting for will do a lot of terrible, terrible things.

Heh, Funny

Trump will pardon a turkey....the jokes write themselves.

What Next?

Ruth Marcus writes a piece that, frankly, a man couldn't write. She talks about what we should do next with allegations of sexual misconduct, against transgressions ranging from Al Franken's to Roy Moore's.  It's a nuanced bit of thinking about how we are apt to overcorrect to horrible events, and in the process trample the atrocious along with the merely boorish.  Few have mentioned the rights of the accused in these incidents, because few of the cases fall under criminal law (or in Moore's case, outside the statutes of limitations), but not every accusation is proof of guilt.

As always, we are making progress, but that progress is slow and frustrating.  That shouldn't dissuade us from trudging onwards.

If Franken Does Resign

I found his replacement.

Mark Penn Is Wrong; Mark Penn Is Right

Notoriously bad campaign strategist Mark Penn has an op-ed piece out that has some bad advice and some good advice. 

He advances some good ideas to reform the Democratic Party:

- Get rid of caucuses and superdelegates.
- Pick the order of the first 12 primaries out of a hat.
- Adopt transparency principles at the DNC.
- Reforming the finances of the DNC, so it doesn't become a shell for donors.

He also suggests a "jungle primary" but that's a stupid idea for a single party.  It's literally nonsensical.

However, he also comes to his pre-conceived, pre-packaged in 1994 idea that Democrats must nominate "moderates," whatever the hell that actually means.

The point of his reforms is to open up the nominating process and party apparatus.  That's good.  If it produces moderates?  Fine.  If it produces leftists?  Fine.

But don't enter the process with the idea that you are creating more democracy for the purpose of getting what you want.

Al Franken

The photo of him "groping" Leann Tweeden doesn't look like he's touching her.  It's sophomoric and wrong, though.  The kiss is certainly not OK.

However, when someone harasses women, they never do it just once.  That's the important lesson of Weinstein, Ailes, Clinton, O'Reilly, Toback, Packwood, Wiesenthaler and on and on and on.

Another woman comes forward, and he should resign.  Given his time at SNL, there probably will be another woman.

Economically Anxious

Can the GOP do anything right?  They managed to craft a regressive tax package that hurts the average American to benefit the wealthy at a time when populism is on the march around the globe.

Of course, the journalists who go on their next "Cleetus Safari" looking for Trump voters over 60 who still love them some Donald will be surprised when the regressive tax cut that objectively hurts them doesn't erode their support for Trump.

Maybe they WILL turn against the GOP Congress.  Frankly, they will do whatever Fox News tells them to do. 

Also, Democrats will rail against this upwards redistribution of wealth and call for tax measures that raise taxes on the rich.  And then we will get reports that Democrats don't have a message for 2018.

Moore Women, Moore Problems

The GOP is increasingly running out of options on the Roy Moore front.  Despite floating some potential machinations, there really is no way of keeping Moore off the ballot aside from him stepping down.  Roy Moore is not stepping down.  His entire career is about not stepping down.

So, the next Senator from Alabama will either be a pedophile or Doug Jones.  A guy who tries to date little girls or a guy who put their murderers behind bars.  Rumor has it that the GOP has a poll that shows Jones is crushing Moore now.  The race was already very close, but late deciders would've likely broken back to the GOP, like we saw with Trump last year.  Now, they will likely continue to break for Jones (or against Moore). 

There has been a lot of discussion about the "permission effect."  I think Moore's (alleged) child predation cancels that out and give people, in fact, "permission" to vote for a Democrat this one time.

I could be wrong. This could be another Trump surprise.  Without knowing what is going on in Alabama, I'm shooting blanks in the dark here.  But I just don't think there are enough women's votes to get Roy Moore elected. 

#19thAmendmentSolutions

The Big Dog

The recent revelations that have cascaded about sexual harassment has led to a critical re-evaluations of Bill Clinton.  I think that's a good thing, and perhaps overdue.

One of the issues is, of course, Monica Lewinsky.  The problem I have is that the affair between Lewinsky and Clinton doesn't feel like harassment to me.  She initiated the relationship (famously flashing her thong at him), and she claims it was consensual to this day.  If there was no Paula Jones lawsuit, then his behavior was inherently skeevy, but not harassment.

No, the problem with Clinton isn't that he had a brief affair with Lewinsky.  But there are real problems.

First, and least disputably, the conduct of the damage control team that sought to protect Clinton was objectively bad.  They trashed Lewinsky.  That is not OK.  This is a "blame the woman" approach that typified the maximalist tactics of the Clinton political machine.

Second, there is Kathleen Willey and Paula Jones.  I'm not sure how we look at those incidents as NOT being sexual harassment.  Maybe the Jones thing was consensual, but Clinton initiated that.  Maybe Jones was flirting with him, but I doubt it.  She worked for the state of Arkansas and he pressured her into sex.  He groped Willey. 

But the most serious allegations that we have to come to terms with is Juanita Broderick.  Her allegations are that Clinton out-and-out raped her.  There are corroborating witnesses to the aftermath.  To paraphrase Mitch McConnell, "I believe the woman."  What I find curious is the focus that Yglesias and others are putting on the Lewinksy affair.  I don't think that's the right focus.  The focus should be on Jones, Willey and, above all, Broderick. 

We are having an accountability moment as a culture.  I supported Clinton in the Lewinsky scandal, so maybe my feeling that the actual sexual contact isn't a problem is tainted by that.  But I also think that sexual contact happens.  It happens in the workplace.  It happens between people who do not have equal power relationships.  And it is not always harassment when it does. 

Where I have to change my mind - and have - is that the Clinton White House abused Lewinksy in the press after the fact.  I think he harassed Willey and almost certainly harassed Jones.  I think it is at least possible, if not probable, that he raped Juanita Broderick.

What that means for future evaluations of Bill Clinton and his legacy is complicated.  I do think there is room for complexity in our understanding of past figures in light of current moral standards.  I think Sally Hemmings had no autonomy in her relationship with Jefferson, but she may very well have had agency.  I don't know, and we will never know.  Judging the past is difficult when using a modern lens.

Clinton's behavior was not 200 years ago, though.  It occurred as we began to acknowledge, at least in the broadest of strokes, that sexual harassment was wrong.  How we evaluate Bill Clinton in light of the fact that we are being overwhelmed with the evidence that wrong-doing against women is much more prevalent than - some - men believed?  I think focusing just on the fact that the President carried on an affair with an intern is missing the bigger, more troubling allegations.  Clinton shows the signs of being a sexual predator, using his power to satisfy himself sexually.

I wonder if we will have more revelations about him, the way we have floodgates opening on other public figures.  If so, we should welcome and believe those accusations so that we can move forward into a culture where that is unlikely to happen again.

The Straight Line From Trump To Moore

We - we coastal elites sipping our godless lattes - are struggling to understand how Evangelicals can support Roy Moore.  It's actually not terribly difficult once you understand who Evangelicals are.

Evangelicals aren't "the most devout Christians," they are the most ardent culture warriors.  This has nothing to do with theology or doctrinal disputes over the role of the church in public life.  This is about the aggrieved, old white people who wrap themselves in the cloth of faith in order to hate on people they don't like.

This is how they rallied around Donald Trump last fall after the tape came out where he boasted of sexually assaulting women.  Didn't matter.  Trump was willing to hate the same people the Evangelicals hate.  He was willing to pick fights with the uppity Negroes of the NFL; feminists; LGBTQ activists; scientists; bureaucrats; reason; compassion...all the enemies of the narrow minded bigots who cloak themselves in the Blood of the Lamb.  That mattered more than any actual behavior.

Trump's victory is, of course, why Moore is very unlikely to drop out of the race.  If accusations of sexual assault weren't enough to deny Trump the presidency for 46% of the general population, why should it be enough to deny Moore a seat in deep red Alabama?

I honestly don't know if Moore or Jones will win.  Any substantial write-in campaign for Jeff Sessions or Luther Strange could tip the balance to Jones.  While Evangelicals make up a substantial part of the GOP, I don't think they make up a majority of Alabamans.  

Keep an eye on the women of Alabama.  Most of the people rushing to defend Roy Moore have been male.  Republican women swallowed their pride and scruples to vote for Trump last year.  But child molestation is, honestly, the worst thing out there.  It's the crime even prison populations consider beyond the pale.

In prison, murderers get a certain respect, but child molesters are pariahs.  Do Alabama Republicans have the moral scruples of felons?

Seems Like A Nice Man

Roy Moore, ladies and gentlemen.

More and more Republicans are breaking with him.  Interesting to see how this plays out.  Three or four years ago, Moore would have been pressured out, but in the age of Trump and Bannon and Fox News I don't think so.

What's The Play?

Mitch McConnell has called on Roy Moore to step aside.  This adds to a growing list of Republican Senators who have un-endorsed him or called on him to step aside.

What is the play here?

Moore ran AGAINST Mitch McConnell as much as anyone else.  His entire persona is wrapped up in sticking his finger in whoever's eye happens to be handy.  Why in the world would Moore listen to McConnell?  And McConnell has to know that.

The smart guess going around is that Moore is now losing to Jones AND Moore is hurting the Republican party overall.  While a concerted blitz might save Moore's election chances, it would cripple the GOP in precisely those suburban districts that flipped so hard in Virginia last week. 

It looks like the GOP has decided that losing the Alabama Senate seat is necessary to save the national party, even if it makes things like the tax cuts even harder to pull off.  If so, that would demonstrate that perhaps, just perhaps, being a creepy pedophile really IS a deal breaker for the GOP in certain parts of the country.

However, and this is really amazing, being a pedophile is NOT a deal breaker for the so-called "values voters" among evangelical Christians.

I will never claim to be a good Christian.  There are too many theological problems I have with most of the faith to feel comfortable saying that. 

But I am objectively and categorically anti-child molester.  If you're not....Jesus wept.

Drain That Swamp

Clearly, Donald Trump's supporters are motivated by economic anxiety and the need for economic opportunities, and not raging resentment because they can't people f** or n***** anymore.

Meanwhile In Congress

The Republican establishment has tolerated all sorts of moral turpitude in order to give the wealthy even more money.  Trump, Bannon, Moore...They keep swallowing these awful people in order to make sure billionaires have even more money.

The problem is that the GOP is really, really bad at legislating. 

The Byrd Rule - which Republicans have to follow, because they won't and haven't tried to get any Democratic votes - means that there are a great many restrictions on what can be in any tax bill.  It doesn't look like the Senate bill can even pass the Senate.  Plus, you have some fiscal conservatives actually behaving like fiscal conservatives. 

All of this is the backdrop for the Moore-Jones matchup in a few weeks.  If, somehow, enough Republicans and Independents can behave like moral human beings and not just Republican drones, maybe Democrats can completely upend this drive towards plutocracy.

Maybe.

Well, That Settles It

I guess Russia didn't interfere with the election last year.  I mean, they say they didn't, so it's all good.

Thanks, Republicans, for saddling us with this fucking moron.

It's The Suburbs

Reading the Alabama GOP's response to the Moore allegations is depressing as hell.  Improbably, Sarah Huckabee Sanders probably gave the "best" response by saying the usual, "Let's wait until we have all the facts."  That's perfectly plausible.

But Alabama Republicans have gone further saying that even if rock solid proof exists that Roy Moore molested underaged girls, they would still vote for him.

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2017 Republican Party.

They deserve to die as a party.  This is despicable. 

"Hey, King David Raped People, Too!"

Apparently the Bible says pedophilia is OK.  I don't know how persuasive that will be as a counter-argument to the revelations that Roy Moore is a pervy pedophile.  It will work with some of the people who will support Moore no matter what.

The "fake news" angle seems more promising, and you can make a case that it worked for Trump.  Hopefully Doug Jones isn't being investigated by Comey.  Moore can try and run against the Washington Post, and that should work a little bit.

I don't want to over-determine the Virginia results, but if Republican women in the Birmingham/Mobile/Montgomery/Huntsville suburbs turn hard against Moore, I think that could tip the balance to Jones.  He was within spitting distance.  This makes that race very, very close.

Oh, and this race could determine who controls the Senate in 2018.

It's Weinman and Spacey's World And We Are Just Living In It

Christianist and White Supremacist Roy Moore may be a pedophile.

Two things.

First, these reports seem credible and are backed up by contemporary witnesses.  If so, there are likely more allegations that will come out.  Guys who hit on three teenagers have hit on more than three teenagers.

Second, it might not make a difference anyway. Alabama is Republican as hell.

But it could.  The polls are tight.  Tuesday showed a wave was building. 

You might consider throwing Doug Jones a shekel or two.

Please Read This

Josh Marshall on last night's wave. 

TL;DR: The rules of political gravity still apply.

Gillepsie's Xenophobic Race-Baiting Worked

In starting to dissect the results from Virginia, the WaPo notes that Gillespie actually OUTPERFORMED Cuccinelli's run for governor  in rural Virginia.  He turned out and won Republicans in rural Virginia.

Worth remembering that Trump didn't come from nowhere.  He's a perfect avatar for a certain wing of the Republican Party.

Good News From Most Places

What was promised to be a tight Virginia gubernatorial race turned out to not be so tight after all.  Democrats flipped an astonishing 12 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates so far.  They won, as expected, in New Jersey's governor's race.  They look to be winning a ballot measure in Maine to expand Medicaid in that state under the ACA.   Bill De Blasio cruised to re-election.

It's too early to look hard at what happened in Virginia with any definitive stance.  Nate Cohn points to something that, if true, is critically important.  If his numbers are correct, Gillespie actually outperformed previous Republicans in the rural parts of the state. 

He got crushed in the suburbs.

Look, Democrats should run the best candidates possible in the most districts possible.  But if they flip the House a year from now, it will be in the suburbs. 

Meanwhile, here in Connecticut, the Lovely And Talented Wife ran as an Independent for Town Council.  Our town has a very strong Republican tilt and the Democrats are a feeble "Me Too!" party that has few ideas and little vision.  She became involved with these Independents - they are ferociously passionate about town politics - because she always wanted to run for office.  She took the loss well, but it is instructive of how elections work.

If you are in opposition, you have to concentrate your attack.  The Republicans are the Party of Power in our town.  You have to hold your nose and unite with your closest allies to take them down.

Northam won in Virginia by being decent, even bland.  He won over anti-Trumpist suburban independents and probably some soft Republicans.

Maybe it will require a firebrand to win in 2020.  I doubt it.  The finger pointing in Virginia going into the election ultimately didn't matter.  But Democrats will need to concentrate their opposition.  To Trump.  To the GOP.  To the whole corrupt gang.

Chait Hits Upon Something Here

Jon Chait notes that Ed Gillespie's vile race-baiting campaign represents "state-of-the-art" Trumpism.  Gillespie was - for decades - a K Street Republican who served as head of the RNC under Dubya.  He's about as "establishment" as you can get.

But Gillespie ran on a message that used fearmongering and racial appeals to whites to narrow what ought to have been a clear Democratic win into a tight race that could go either way.  Perhaps some of this is the debate over statues.  Historical accuracy and a sense of common decency are on the side of the Left here, but it's not a way to win votes in Virginia.  It might be a perfect microcosm of Leftist politics: right, but a loser at the polls.

Chait's best observation is the overlap between the governing philosophy of Trump and Putin. Both men are kleptocrats who want to co-opt or coerce the business elite into a reciprocal relationship with the state.  Putin built his power on two fronts: populist appeals to Russian greatness by demonizing the "Other" and enriching his cronies.

I think Trump is succeeding in enriching himself, and if the GOP tax plan succeeds, he and the very rich will succeed in enriching themselves. But I'm not sure the possibility exists to create the sort of interlocking power relationships that characterize Putin's Russia.  For one thing, Blue America is both hostile to Trump and Trumpism and has significantly more purchasing power than Red America.  We saw this with Trump's various business advisory boards that emptied out once consumer backlash hit.

I just don't think the capacity exists for the sort of Russian oligarchical kleptocracy that Russia has.

What is more important is looking at what a Gillespie win would mean for the Republican Party.  You can count on EVERY threatened Republican officeholder to double down on racist appeals and divisive rhetoric, just as Gillespie has done.  That will tear the country further and further apart.

It would also, hopefully, expose the lie that Trumpism has anything to do with economic populism.  The Republican party is about funneling wealth upwards.  If Gillespie wins and the Republican tax plan passes, and then Republicans hold on to the House in 2018... I think we can safely move beyond another fucking sympathetic portrait of the poor down-trodden coal miner who just knows Trump will bring the coal jobs back. Or the small business owner who just knows that it's good that a real business man is in the White House.

It's culture wars.  All the way down.

Oh, FFS

Virginia is a light blue state.  It has never been deep indigo like, say, Massachusetts, but it has generally voted for Democrats at the state level over the past few elections.  The suburbs of Northern Virginia have been very fertile vote wells for the Democratic party. 

However, typical Democratic bullshit is imperiling their chance of holding on to the governor's mansion.  Some of this piggybacks off of the ridiculous Donna Brazile claims, but at the moment when the Democratic party needs to be united and pulling in one direction, they seem intent on - as the piece above puts it - shitting the bed.

Hispanic activists are outraged that Northam has vowed to sign a non-existent bill that would hypothetically ban sanctuary cities in Virginia.  Cities that don't currently exist, nor are likely to.  DFA even went so far as to un-endorse Northam.

Ed Gillespie has waded deep into the sewers of white racist resentment.  He has covered himself in the slime of Trumpism.  If Northam isn't everything you want plus a pony, too goddamned bad!  He's not wallowing in the slime that Gillespie is.  He's not a mini-Trump.

Democrats should win this race comfortably.  There is a massive anti-Trump groundswell out there.  They are a lead-pipe cinch to pick up the New Jersey governor's mansion tomorrow.  But if a bunch of lefty types stay home in Virginia, or Latinos and African Americans stay home, because Northam isn't vocal enough on your particular slate of issues...Well, then we deserve the divided, racist politics that will hurt minorities the most.

Jesus, people, it's a binary choice.  And not voting out of pique is effectively a vote for the other guy. 

Did we learn NOTHING from last year?

My Question, Too

Martin Longman makes a good point: What if Michael Flynn is cooperating with Robert Mueller?

I was surprised when the indictments came down and Flynn wasn't one of them.  His instances of law breaking are pretty clear.  I'm not sure there is any question that Flynn broke various laws regarding registering as a foreign agent as a former military officer.  However, Flynn shares Trump's paleolithic world view and one would think a soldier would value loyalty. He might also value not spending the rest of his life in jail.  Or perhaps he sees the errors of his ways in consorting with Putin.

If Flynn HAS flipped, that's a treasure trove for Mueller, and as the previous exposure of Papadapoulos showed, Mueller can keep a secret.

Flynn can likely put Trump or Trump's sons in the room with Russians.  He's the critical piece.

Donna Brazile...WTF?

I haven't commented on Donna Brazile's inflammatory comments that the Clinton Campaign unduly influenced/rigged the primaries.  It certainly seems that many of her claims are falling apart under scrutiny.

If this is a big pile of bullshit, why in the world would she do that?  Why play with matches in a room full of gasoline and dynamite?

Not At All Innocents Abroad

Does anyone else think that Donald Trump on an overseas trip to some of the most fraught and contentious regions of the world will probably go horribly wrong?

Optimism

Cheryl Rofer at Balloon Juice gives a more optimistic take on Robert's Epistemic Crisis piece.  She compares the process to Watergate and the current Republican need for a tax cut bill, even if that tax cut bill is political suicide.

I suppose that's true.  But the central dynamic today is that Republicans are more afraid of their own voters than they are of the judgment of history. Ask Jeff Flake.  He's quitting because he can't win.

Any Republican who crosses Trump will likely lose their seat.  Waiting on Howard Baker is a fool's errand.

50 Votes

In order to pass the Plutocrat Enrichment Act of 2017, the Republicans need to get 50 votes in the Senate, so that Norman Bates Wannabe, Mike Pence, can cast the tie-breaking vote.

Which Senator from a state with a high income tax rate will likely balk?

If you guessed Susan Collins (ME-7.15% rate), give yourself a pat on the back.

Who else might be in play?  Interestingly, I might put Tim Scott on the list.  South Carolina has a 7% tax rate, but that might not apply to the retirees in Hilton Head.

Wisconsin has a 7.65% rate, but Ron Johnson is simply an ambulatory spread sheet from the Koch Brothers, so he probably won't crack.

The thing to remember is that you have to make a fair amount for it to be worth it for you to itemize, so Idaho (7.4%) and Montana (6.9%) probably won't qualify.  Still, if I'm a party that gives even a passing shit about wealth inequality, I might be thinking about running ads there.

Iowa has a high rate (8.98%) but low earners and Joni Ernst is a Tea Party nightmare.  Still, see above.  Democrats should go hard on the airwaves there.

Potential fertile ground is in Georgia.  The tax rate is 6%, but you probably have a lot of people in the metro Atlanta area who rely on that deduction.

Arkansas has the same tax rate at Connecticut (6.9%), so work on it there.

All you have to do is peel off three Senators (two if Collins is already lost) and they have to pull out the SALT deduction.  Do THAT, and you lose any shot of making these cuts permanent, because of te Byrd Rule.

Get busy people!

UPDATE: There are 14 GOP House members from California.  There are 9 from New York.  There are 5 from New Jersey.  If 23 votes switch sides, that kills the bill.

This Might Be The Most Important Thing You Can Read Right Now

What if Mueller proves his case - a slam dunk - and it just doesn't matter?

Color Me Shocked

Let's all get our best Captain Renaud shocked faces on.

The GOP tax plan favors the super rich!  Who could possibly have guessed this would come to pass?

The WaPo breaks it down.  TL;DR: super wealthy people about to die (the rich), big corporations, (the rich) people pay the alternative minimum tax (the rich) and people who own "pass through" corporations (the rich) all make out great.

Home builders (mostly middle class tradesmen), some small business owners (middle class),  and anyone in the upper middle class in a state with a high tax rate will see this tax bill either increase their taxes or hurt their business.  Meanwhile, the working poor get nothing and charities get hosed.

Remind me again how Trump voters are "economically anxious".  Remind me again that this isn't about white racial grievance or the toxic alternative universe created by right wing media.

I'm sure all those Trump voters who cared so much about "draining the swamp" are really going to hold those Republican congresspeople to account.  Any minute now....

Any minute...

GOP Can't Even GOP

Jon Chait and Matt Yglesias both arrive at where I've been heading for a few weeks now.  I don't see how the GOP comes close to passing the tax cut bill they want to. 

If anything has been salutary about the Trump Epoch, it has been to watch the fantasists in the GOP come up against the reality of governing.  Governing happens in the Congress, ruling happens in the Executive.  Right now the GOP can't actually govern, because governing requires interaction with reality.  Like math.

I Offer This Tweet

From Ben Wexler:

2016: we didn’t talk to russia

2017: we didn’t collude with russia

2018: what’s wrong with colluding?

2019: что случилось с россией?