Rumors swirl that there will be a shakeup in the Trump National Security team. Tillerson is out. Pompeo moves from CIA to State. Tom Cotton moves to CIA.
Two things I notice.
First, essentially replacing Tillerson with Cotton makes for a lot more Iran Hawks in the NatSec team. I'm coming to worry that Trump will start a war to boost his flagging ratings. I hope (?) that enough voices like McMaster, Mattis and Kelly have impressed upon him the dangers of attacking North Korea. The dead would top a million human souls. Given Trump's bellicose anti-Islamic bigotry, strikes against Iran makes "sense" in the narrow meaning of "likely to happen." Of course, any conflict with Iran will be a disaster. It will legitimize the rule of men like Khamenei and delegitimatize the reformist politics of men like Rouhani. It will spike oil prices as the Straits of Hormuz will be closed. It will reignite sectarian warfare across the Middle East. Still, replacing Tillerson with Cotton makes it all more likely.
Second, Tillerson went from a "respected" CEO of one of the largest corporations in the world to becoming a whipping boy for a "moron." He is a Republican in the sense that he is a rich, old white guy who doesn't like it when the gubmint says he can't dump pollutants in the groundwater. He is not, however, a partisan creature.
I look forward to his tell-all tour.
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