Fox News has a poll showing men are split in support of the GOP 44-44. That's a "Holy Shit" number. The GOP has enjoyed large margins among men for decades, which has allowed them to overcome their poor performance with women. How does the poll measure women's support? Women prefer Democrats 53-34. That's a 19 point difference.
Democrats need two things to happen in November: They need angry suburban women to come out and vote Blue, and they need angry, white middle aged men to stay home. Hopefully, this one poll is a harbinger of things to come.
Thursday, August 30, 2018
Wednesday, August 29, 2018
Florida
If there is one state that I am not optimistic about as falling more into the Democratic column this November, it's Florida. I think there are really vulnerable Republicans in New England and the Northeast, California and suburban areas around the country. But Florida looks like the toughest nut to crack. And it comes down to demographics.
Trump and the GOP are most popular with older, white voters. Sound like Florida? Or for that matter Arizona, where Republicans got lucky with their nominee to replace Jeff Flake? But there are two critical statewide races in Florida this November. The Senate race has incumbent Bill Nelson facing outgoing governor Rick Scott, and last night the gubernatorial race was set as liberal Tallahassee mayor Andrew Gillum against Trump clone, Rep. Ron DeSantis. Nelson is in trouble in recent polling, in ways that Joe Manchin and Joe Donnelly aren't. Last night made a Democratic Senate much harder to get to. Arizona and Florida could represent a net of one seat for the GOP as opposed to vice versa. There was a result that had Arizona flipping Blue, but that's harder to see now, whereas Nelson is several points underwater to Scott.
Perhaps Gillum can energize African American voters in Florida, but the real margin to watch is Hispanic voters, perhaps especially Puerto Ricans. Tens of thousands of Puerto Ricans moved to Florida after Maria, and if they can be registered and mobilized to vote, they might be the difference in electing Gillum and returning Nelson to the Senate.
While Texas trends towards the Democrats, Florida seems to be moving away from them. That's troubling for this fall's election.
Trump and the GOP are most popular with older, white voters. Sound like Florida? Or for that matter Arizona, where Republicans got lucky with their nominee to replace Jeff Flake? But there are two critical statewide races in Florida this November. The Senate race has incumbent Bill Nelson facing outgoing governor Rick Scott, and last night the gubernatorial race was set as liberal Tallahassee mayor Andrew Gillum against Trump clone, Rep. Ron DeSantis. Nelson is in trouble in recent polling, in ways that Joe Manchin and Joe Donnelly aren't. Last night made a Democratic Senate much harder to get to. Arizona and Florida could represent a net of one seat for the GOP as opposed to vice versa. There was a result that had Arizona flipping Blue, but that's harder to see now, whereas Nelson is several points underwater to Scott.
Perhaps Gillum can energize African American voters in Florida, but the real margin to watch is Hispanic voters, perhaps especially Puerto Ricans. Tens of thousands of Puerto Ricans moved to Florida after Maria, and if they can be registered and mobilized to vote, they might be the difference in electing Gillum and returning Nelson to the Senate.
While Texas trends towards the Democrats, Florida seems to be moving away from them. That's troubling for this fall's election.
Tuesday, August 28, 2018
Principled Conservatism
Trump, aching to regain the spotlight that he lost to John McCain, has launched a war on Google. His basic complaint, that searching for Trump News returns a bunch of unfavorable results, is rooted in his deep-seated narcissism. Any story about Trump that is negative must be fake and pushed by Fake News and Big Tech with their left-wing agenda. The number of logical fallacies present in his assumption and statements would take longer to catalog than I wish to spend.
By raising the specter of somehow censoring or censuring one of the largest companies in the world, Trump has - once again - highlighted the moral emptiness of "conservative principles." Let's skip ahead a bit and see where this story might be headed. As with much of Trump's verbal emesis, this story could disappear in a few days, as the McCain funeral recedes into the past. Or, just as likely, Trump forces this bit of unconstitutional nonsense onto the GOP Congress. Personally, I kind of hope he does. Since the GOP Congress is the most craven group of cowards I've ever seen, they will dutifully begin attacking a sector of the economy that is already left-leaning. Full of their own narcissistic libertarians, the Bay Area will starting bankrolling Democratic candidates for Congress, helping to offset the Billionaire Boys Club that props up odious GOP creatures like Scott Walker and Rick Scott.
By raising the specter of somehow censoring or censuring one of the largest companies in the world, Trump has - once again - highlighted the moral emptiness of "conservative principles." Let's skip ahead a bit and see where this story might be headed. As with much of Trump's verbal emesis, this story could disappear in a few days, as the McCain funeral recedes into the past. Or, just as likely, Trump forces this bit of unconstitutional nonsense onto the GOP Congress. Personally, I kind of hope he does. Since the GOP Congress is the most craven group of cowards I've ever seen, they will dutifully begin attacking a sector of the economy that is already left-leaning. Full of their own narcissistic libertarians, the Bay Area will starting bankrolling Democratic candidates for Congress, helping to offset the Billionaire Boys Club that props up odious GOP creatures like Scott Walker and Rick Scott.
Monday, August 27, 2018
Sunday, August 26, 2018
The Passing
A lot has been written on the passing of John McCain. I think the Washington Post editors perhaps did it best. They note things in his past that are troublesome - his reluctance to vote to make MLK Day a holiday, his admitted craven stance on the Confederate flag in South Carolina - while noting that what made McCain almost unique among politicians was his frank assessment when he had screwed up. Politicians are salesmen, and McCain was no exception. But he also refused to shy away from expressing his disappointment in his own political calculations.
I don't think, for instance, that John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin led to Donald Trump. The GOP was headed in that direction anyway. His selection of Palin was representative of that change rather than a driving factor. His vote against MLK Day is less understandable, beyond the sort of footsie that the GOP has played with racism since Nixon's day. What's interesting, is that McCain would've likely agreed with that, especially late in his career.
As I wrote on Facebook and Twitter last night, my father and I argued about politics for 30 years, and rarely more heatedly over whether John McCain was really a "maverick" or not. I don't think I'm wrong in saying that "maverick" was a carefully cultivated media personage, pinned to a few instance when McCain bucked his own party, notably on campaign finance reform. Just as often, he would fall in line, as he did with MLK Day, the Confederate Flag and regressive tax cuts.
But the week of my father's funeral, McCain strode into the well of the Senate and killed ACA repeal. I don't know to what degree that was because it violated regular rule of order or because he realized that the ACA was a net positive for Americans. Regardless, he was one of the few Senators in the GOP who put the welfare of his fellow citizens above party loyalty.
McCain has been described as a patriot over and over again. That really is his best epitaph. I probably disagreed with him 90% of the time, but unlike most Republican politicians, he would act on that 10%. Unlike the profiles of cowardice like Jeff Flake, Ben Sasse and Bob Corker, McCain put his country first. His vision and mine differed, but I rarely had cause to think that he would sacrifice his principles to political expediency, and if he did, he sincerely regretted it.
Regret. What a rare commodity in a powerful man. How commendable.
I don't think, for instance, that John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin led to Donald Trump. The GOP was headed in that direction anyway. His selection of Palin was representative of that change rather than a driving factor. His vote against MLK Day is less understandable, beyond the sort of footsie that the GOP has played with racism since Nixon's day. What's interesting, is that McCain would've likely agreed with that, especially late in his career.
As I wrote on Facebook and Twitter last night, my father and I argued about politics for 30 years, and rarely more heatedly over whether John McCain was really a "maverick" or not. I don't think I'm wrong in saying that "maverick" was a carefully cultivated media personage, pinned to a few instance when McCain bucked his own party, notably on campaign finance reform. Just as often, he would fall in line, as he did with MLK Day, the Confederate Flag and regressive tax cuts.
But the week of my father's funeral, McCain strode into the well of the Senate and killed ACA repeal. I don't know to what degree that was because it violated regular rule of order or because he realized that the ACA was a net positive for Americans. Regardless, he was one of the few Senators in the GOP who put the welfare of his fellow citizens above party loyalty.
McCain has been described as a patriot over and over again. That really is his best epitaph. I probably disagreed with him 90% of the time, but unlike most Republican politicians, he would act on that 10%. Unlike the profiles of cowardice like Jeff Flake, Ben Sasse and Bob Corker, McCain put his country first. His vision and mine differed, but I rarely had cause to think that he would sacrifice his principles to political expediency, and if he did, he sincerely regretted it.
Regret. What a rare commodity in a powerful man. How commendable.
Saturday, August 25, 2018
Scandalous
Philip Bump lays out what we currently know about illegal efforts by Donald Trump to win the election in 2016. We know that he broke campaign finance laws in his efforts to squash stories about Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougall. We know that Russians hacked into the DNC to obtain whatever embarrassing information they could. We know Russians roiled the internet with fake news spread by fake Americans. The question of "collusion" is simply whether we can prove that Trump and his campaign coordinated with Russia on the last two. It is hard to believe that they didn't.
Bump hedges his bets at the end, by noting that we can never know if it made a difference one way or another, while also noting that the election was decided by a tiny fraction of the votes cast. We know that Clinton was well ahead of Trump before the Comey letter came out. If Trump benefitted from this illegal activity it wouldn't need to make much difference to make all the difference.
Let's take a moment to observe that this is only the corruption involved in the election. Trump has undoubtably violated the emoluments clause of the Constitution, he has enriched himself off public office and his Cabinet is full of a variety of crooks and charlatans. Wilbur Ross, in particular, remains a cesspool of illegal dealing.
However, the troubling fact remains that Trump used illegal methods to tip a very close election (made closer than necessary by the Comey letter). That casts every action of his presidency under a cloud of illegitimacy. Some of the damage - to the budget, to the environment - is more or less permanent. The appointments to the Supreme Court will do years and years of damage.
Thanks, Republicans.
Bump hedges his bets at the end, by noting that we can never know if it made a difference one way or another, while also noting that the election was decided by a tiny fraction of the votes cast. We know that Clinton was well ahead of Trump before the Comey letter came out. If Trump benefitted from this illegal activity it wouldn't need to make much difference to make all the difference.
Let's take a moment to observe that this is only the corruption involved in the election. Trump has undoubtably violated the emoluments clause of the Constitution, he has enriched himself off public office and his Cabinet is full of a variety of crooks and charlatans. Wilbur Ross, in particular, remains a cesspool of illegal dealing.
However, the troubling fact remains that Trump used illegal methods to tip a very close election (made closer than necessary by the Comey letter). That casts every action of his presidency under a cloud of illegitimacy. Some of the damage - to the budget, to the environment - is more or less permanent. The appointments to the Supreme Court will do years and years of damage.
Thanks, Republicans.
Friday, August 24, 2018
Abandoning Democracy
There was an article from a prominent never-Trumper - David Frum - who argued that "If Conservatives become convinced that they cannot win democratically, they will not abandon conservatism. They will reject democracy."
This is, perhaps, the most chilling possible legacy for Trumpism. Trump has already dragged white nationalists into the political discussion, he has undermined our ideas of the Rule of Law and he has degraded America's standing in the world, especially with our allies.
But the real threat is quite possibly that Trump will see the final break of the institutional Republican Party with the idea of democracy. There has been for decades the obsession with the nebulous idea of "voter fraud," a crime of vanishingly small occurence. Dubya Bush, a terrible president who embraced horrible policies but now seems tame by comparision, was the first to push this idea. It came to little besides the scandal attendent to firing a bunch of USAGs and the end of Alberto Gonzalez's career. The point is that Republicans have been pushing the idea that the only way Democrats continues to win majorities of the national popular vote is because of all the fraud.
Once you accept the lie that Democrats engage in illegal voting fraud to win, that frees you to do whatever illegal shit you want to do. They started in 2010 with the extreme gerrymanders in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas and elsewhere. This - combined with their natural advantage that being the Rural Party gives them - gave them their existing House majorities.
Trump and the apparent interference of the Russians in the 2016 election has given them another potential weapon to fight off the fact - and it is a fact - that Republican policies are profoundly unpopular. Racial and cultural anger gets their voters to the polls, but tax cuts for the rich and more pollution, guns and corruption doesn't sell well, even to their own voters. Russian and other external efforts to undermine our election are "very troubling" to the GOP, because - again - they know how it must sell.
But then you have this. A conservative Republican Senator offers a bill to help secure elections and as importantly help Americans feel secure about their elections. It has broad, bipartisan support. And the White House apparently killed it. They offer some bullshit about "having the resources" to safeguard elections, but given the stakes, why not have more resources? Unless you don't want to safeguard elections? If your job was to, say, safeguard American borders from illegal immigrants, and Congress offered you more resources, would they say, no?
In November, Democrats should take control of the House. Hopefully the Senate as well. But what if they don't? And what if there are credible allegations of vote-count tampering? Or large numbers of minority voters purged from voting rolls? To this point, protests against Trump and Trumpism have been largely peaceful, presumably because people are waiting until November, 2018.
If Trump actively undermines election security to his advantage, all while embroiled in massive allegations of corruption and criminality...I fear for the civic fabric of our country.
This is, perhaps, the most chilling possible legacy for Trumpism. Trump has already dragged white nationalists into the political discussion, he has undermined our ideas of the Rule of Law and he has degraded America's standing in the world, especially with our allies.
But the real threat is quite possibly that Trump will see the final break of the institutional Republican Party with the idea of democracy. There has been for decades the obsession with the nebulous idea of "voter fraud," a crime of vanishingly small occurence. Dubya Bush, a terrible president who embraced horrible policies but now seems tame by comparision, was the first to push this idea. It came to little besides the scandal attendent to firing a bunch of USAGs and the end of Alberto Gonzalez's career. The point is that Republicans have been pushing the idea that the only way Democrats continues to win majorities of the national popular vote is because of all the fraud.
Once you accept the lie that Democrats engage in illegal voting fraud to win, that frees you to do whatever illegal shit you want to do. They started in 2010 with the extreme gerrymanders in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas and elsewhere. This - combined with their natural advantage that being the Rural Party gives them - gave them their existing House majorities.
Trump and the apparent interference of the Russians in the 2016 election has given them another potential weapon to fight off the fact - and it is a fact - that Republican policies are profoundly unpopular. Racial and cultural anger gets their voters to the polls, but tax cuts for the rich and more pollution, guns and corruption doesn't sell well, even to their own voters. Russian and other external efforts to undermine our election are "very troubling" to the GOP, because - again - they know how it must sell.
But then you have this. A conservative Republican Senator offers a bill to help secure elections and as importantly help Americans feel secure about their elections. It has broad, bipartisan support. And the White House apparently killed it. They offer some bullshit about "having the resources" to safeguard elections, but given the stakes, why not have more resources? Unless you don't want to safeguard elections? If your job was to, say, safeguard American borders from illegal immigrants, and Congress offered you more resources, would they say, no?
In November, Democrats should take control of the House. Hopefully the Senate as well. But what if they don't? And what if there are credible allegations of vote-count tampering? Or large numbers of minority voters purged from voting rolls? To this point, protests against Trump and Trumpism have been largely peaceful, presumably because people are waiting until November, 2018.
If Trump actively undermines election security to his advantage, all while embroiled in massive allegations of corruption and criminality...I fear for the civic fabric of our country.
Thursday, August 23, 2018
Jury Of Your Peers
This expose by one of the Manafort jurors is really interesting. She is a Trump supporter (who did voir dire on her?), and spoke on Fox News. As I guessed, there was one juror who held out against a full conviction of all counts. The paper trail evidence is what convinced this juror, who said she didn't want Manafort to be guilty (WHO DID VOIR DIRE ON HER?).
Basically, as many have said, this was a favorable judge, a favorable jury and Manafort still got convicted.
Jury trial lay at the heart of our judicial system, but at the same time, there is something fundamentally broken about the fact that one willfully obstuse juror can screw everything up.
Basically, as many have said, this was a favorable judge, a favorable jury and Manafort still got convicted.
Jury trial lay at the heart of our judicial system, but at the same time, there is something fundamentally broken about the fact that one willfully obstuse juror can screw everything up.
Wednesday, August 22, 2018
Anything Happen Yesterday?
Well, that was certainly a news cycle to remember.
Many others have written about what this might mean for Trump. Perhaps more important is what this might mean for the GOP. If we continue to have a steady drumbeat of admitted and convicted law breaking from now to November...that could be enough to tip several otherwise close Congressional races from Red to Blue. I'm talking about seats like Mississippi or Nebraska Senate races.
It's also important to note what this shows about Robert Mueller. He's been the sphinx at the middle of this riddle. I can't recall a more airtight operation. He is methodical, calm and steady in ways that Trump and his team simply are incapable of being. Mueller, for instance, almost certainly has Trump's tax returns. He almost certainly has hard evidence of Trump's tax evasion and money laundering in hand, right now. He has all of Michael Cohen's cooperative testimony, outlining Trump's violation of campaign finance law. I would guess that he has significant information from Gates about conspiratorial actions taken with Russia.
As I wrote yesterday (before all of this broke), Trump's Deplorables don't care. Their reaction to the news was: "collusion wasn't proven, not a crime." Cohen directly implicated Trump in a crime, and likely has evidence to prove it. It won't matter. "Everyone pays off their porn star mistresses before elections."
The Deplorables aren't the point. They have never been the point. The point is all the other people who may have voted for Trump because they hated Hillary or because they were life-long Republicans. Will they vote? And will they vote to continue to enable the criminal enterprise that is the modern GOP?
Many others have written about what this might mean for Trump. Perhaps more important is what this might mean for the GOP. If we continue to have a steady drumbeat of admitted and convicted law breaking from now to November...that could be enough to tip several otherwise close Congressional races from Red to Blue. I'm talking about seats like Mississippi or Nebraska Senate races.
It's also important to note what this shows about Robert Mueller. He's been the sphinx at the middle of this riddle. I can't recall a more airtight operation. He is methodical, calm and steady in ways that Trump and his team simply are incapable of being. Mueller, for instance, almost certainly has Trump's tax returns. He almost certainly has hard evidence of Trump's tax evasion and money laundering in hand, right now. He has all of Michael Cohen's cooperative testimony, outlining Trump's violation of campaign finance law. I would guess that he has significant information from Gates about conspiratorial actions taken with Russia.
As I wrote yesterday (before all of this broke), Trump's Deplorables don't care. Their reaction to the news was: "collusion wasn't proven, not a crime." Cohen directly implicated Trump in a crime, and likely has evidence to prove it. It won't matter. "Everyone pays off their porn star mistresses before elections."
The Deplorables aren't the point. They have never been the point. The point is all the other people who may have voted for Trump because they hated Hillary or because they were life-long Republicans. Will they vote? And will they vote to continue to enable the criminal enterprise that is the modern GOP?
Tuesday, August 21, 2018
The Delusion Caucuses
The paradox of our political age is that we access to more information than ever before, but we don't know what to do with it or how to read it.
Starting with the Bernie Bros, we can see that they believe - absent any empirical evidence - that Sanders is the future of American politics. They believe - again, falsely - that Sanders had more voter support than Clinton in the primaries. Sanders did capture the imagine of the Left, and he captured the votes of those who simply didn't like Clinton. Together, that probably doesn't add up to 50%+1 of the overall electorate.
This contagion is much more powerful of the Right. While the Left suffers from the Pauline Kael Problem, the Right suffers from Roger Ailes Syndrome. The Pauline Kael Problem refers to an anecdote from 1972, when New Yorker film critic Kael was shocked that Nixon won. "How did he win? No one I know voted for him." This is a form of geographic bias. Her Upper West Side friends were not voting for Nixon, so no one was. The recognition of this bias is what leads the leading news organizations to go on their continuous Cleetus Safaris to interview Trump supporters in decaying Rust Belt towns. They don't want to fall victim to the "Coastal Elite" blinkered viewpoint.
The Right has no such compunction. The Roger Ailes Syndrome is the epistemological closure brought about by Fox News, and now additional sites like Breitbart. While the Left doesn't want to fall into a closed information system, the Right depends on it. As this piece nicely lays out, the GOP has abandoned the idea of objective reality. This has been an ongoing process since 1981. Reagan sold pleasing lies with a smile, but there was a sense that at least the men around him knew they were lies. Politicians lie, the feeling went. As Fox News took off under Bill Clinton, who himself had a problem with honesty, the whole information ecosystem on the Right took on a Hot House quality. Any outside air would destroy it.
Every year, the GOP moved further from the sly truth bending or partisan subjectivity of William Safire or even William Buckley and towards the unhinged lunacy of Sean Hannity and Alex Jones. The end result was Donald Trump, a man congenitally incapable of recognizing the truth.
As we get closer to these critical midterm elections, the polls will get more accurate. Right now, Five-Thirtyeight has the most likely outcome at a 34 seat gain in the House. The Hill sees a potential wipeout. Since the Trumpenproletariat thinks the polls were wrong in 2016, they don't trust the polls now. Of course, the polls were largely on target in 2016. Clinton was up about 6 points when the Comey letter came out, then she fell to about 2-3 points...which is where she finished.
But since the GOP has rejected any information outside their bubble, they won't be prepared for a Blue Wave. Trump is predicting a Red Wave, because he's stupid, narcissistic and brittle. A Blue Wave would be a rejection of him, and that can't enter his tiny brain. So the Deplorables will believe they are headed for a vindication of them and their Dear Leader.
Your job, I presume if you read this, is to make damned sure that everyone you know is registered to vote and votes. That's especially true in suburbs with GOP reps, but it's also true in states like Tennessee, Georgia, Arizona, Texas and even Mississippi who could elect Democrats to state-wide office.
Starting with the Bernie Bros, we can see that they believe - absent any empirical evidence - that Sanders is the future of American politics. They believe - again, falsely - that Sanders had more voter support than Clinton in the primaries. Sanders did capture the imagine of the Left, and he captured the votes of those who simply didn't like Clinton. Together, that probably doesn't add up to 50%+1 of the overall electorate.
This contagion is much more powerful of the Right. While the Left suffers from the Pauline Kael Problem, the Right suffers from Roger Ailes Syndrome. The Pauline Kael Problem refers to an anecdote from 1972, when New Yorker film critic Kael was shocked that Nixon won. "How did he win? No one I know voted for him." This is a form of geographic bias. Her Upper West Side friends were not voting for Nixon, so no one was. The recognition of this bias is what leads the leading news organizations to go on their continuous Cleetus Safaris to interview Trump supporters in decaying Rust Belt towns. They don't want to fall victim to the "Coastal Elite" blinkered viewpoint.
The Right has no such compunction. The Roger Ailes Syndrome is the epistemological closure brought about by Fox News, and now additional sites like Breitbart. While the Left doesn't want to fall into a closed information system, the Right depends on it. As this piece nicely lays out, the GOP has abandoned the idea of objective reality. This has been an ongoing process since 1981. Reagan sold pleasing lies with a smile, but there was a sense that at least the men around him knew they were lies. Politicians lie, the feeling went. As Fox News took off under Bill Clinton, who himself had a problem with honesty, the whole information ecosystem on the Right took on a Hot House quality. Any outside air would destroy it.
Every year, the GOP moved further from the sly truth bending or partisan subjectivity of William Safire or even William Buckley and towards the unhinged lunacy of Sean Hannity and Alex Jones. The end result was Donald Trump, a man congenitally incapable of recognizing the truth.
As we get closer to these critical midterm elections, the polls will get more accurate. Right now, Five-Thirtyeight has the most likely outcome at a 34 seat gain in the House. The Hill sees a potential wipeout. Since the Trumpenproletariat thinks the polls were wrong in 2016, they don't trust the polls now. Of course, the polls were largely on target in 2016. Clinton was up about 6 points when the Comey letter came out, then she fell to about 2-3 points...which is where she finished.
But since the GOP has rejected any information outside their bubble, they won't be prepared for a Blue Wave. Trump is predicting a Red Wave, because he's stupid, narcissistic and brittle. A Blue Wave would be a rejection of him, and that can't enter his tiny brain. So the Deplorables will believe they are headed for a vindication of them and their Dear Leader.
Your job, I presume if you read this, is to make damned sure that everyone you know is registered to vote and votes. That's especially true in suburbs with GOP reps, but it's also true in states like Tennessee, Georgia, Arizona, Texas and even Mississippi who could elect Democrats to state-wide office.
Monday, August 20, 2018
Is This Thing On?
Well, being unplugged was nice. But now it's time to start doing whatever this is again.
The best part of our trip was how infrequently we heard about Trump.
The best part of our trip was how infrequently we heard about Trump.
Thursday, August 9, 2018
Detox
We are travelling, away from easy WiFi and ignoring the hourly ebb and flow of the news cycle.
It's been blissful.
I plugged in to Twitter for a bit at dinner and immediately regreted it.
I think this is telling me something.
It's been blissful.
I plugged in to Twitter for a bit at dinner and immediately regreted it.
I think this is telling me something.
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