Florida

If there is one state that I am not optimistic about as falling more into the Democratic column this November, it's Florida.  I think there are really vulnerable Republicans in New England and the Northeast, California and suburban areas around the country.  But Florida looks like the toughest nut to crack.  And it comes down to demographics.

Trump and the GOP are most popular with older, white voters.  Sound like Florida?  Or for that matter Arizona, where Republicans got lucky with their nominee to replace Jeff Flake?  But there are two critical statewide races in Florida this November.  The Senate race has incumbent Bill Nelson facing outgoing governor Rick Scott, and last night the gubernatorial race was set as liberal Tallahassee mayor Andrew Gillum against Trump clone, Rep. Ron DeSantis.  Nelson is in trouble in recent polling, in ways that Joe Manchin and Joe Donnelly aren't.  Last night made a Democratic Senate much harder to get to.  Arizona and Florida could represent a net of one seat for the GOP as opposed to vice versa.  There was a result that had Arizona flipping Blue, but that's harder to see now, whereas Nelson is several points underwater to Scott.

Perhaps Gillum can energize African American voters in Florida, but the real margin to watch is Hispanic voters, perhaps especially Puerto Ricans.  Tens of thousands of Puerto Ricans moved to Florida after Maria, and if they can be registered and mobilized to vote, they might be the difference in electing Gillum and returning Nelson to the Senate.

While Texas trends towards the Democrats, Florida seems to be moving away from them.  That's troubling for this fall's election.