When he says things like this it makes my brain hurt.
The President of the United States doesn't need to be a supergenius, but he needs to be essentially intelligent.
Trump is demonstrably not.
Sunday, June 30, 2019
Saturday, June 29, 2019
Democrats In Dissarray
The voting on the border bill was a fustercluck. What was really at play was a tactical failure to anticipate Mitch McConnell would do the most cynical thing possible and the different dynamics of the two chambers. Online outrage tended to focus on McConnell, but the institutional constraints are just as important.
If nothing else, the imperative of winning back control of the Senate should be clearer than ever.
UPDATE: Martin Longman makes his usual astute point that the politics of immigration don't favor Democrats. The terms of debate should be making the process at the border more humane, instead Democrats have fallen over themselves to get as close to "open borders" as possible. That's a loser.
If nothing else, the imperative of winning back control of the Senate should be clearer than ever.
UPDATE: Martin Longman makes his usual astute point that the politics of immigration don't favor Democrats. The terms of debate should be making the process at the border more humane, instead Democrats have fallen over themselves to get as close to "open borders" as possible. That's a loser.
Friday, June 28, 2019
Debates
Yeah, I don't watch them. They are rarely informative, basically dueling press conferences. Interviews are better, providing they aren't superficial.
But the perception of debates is important. And clearly Harris revived her campaign. Also, Biden demonstrated his two main flaws: He's a not a very good campaigner and he's very old. Will it matter? If not, why do we do these things?
But the perception of debates is important. And clearly Harris revived her campaign. Also, Biden demonstrated his two main flaws: He's a not a very good campaigner and he's very old. Will it matter? If not, why do we do these things?
Thursday, June 27, 2019
Wednesday, June 26, 2019
Priority One
If the Democrats are able to control both Houses of Congress and the White House (and are able to work around the filibuster) they first order of business needs to be protecting the right to vote and increasing access to the ballot.
Tuesday, June 25, 2019
Free College
Everyone seems to be talking about competing plans for free college.
It strikes me that offering free college at STATE institutions, we would create a two-tiered post-secondary world. Rich elites would dominate private institutions - even more so than they do now. A degree from Harvard always opened doors, but now Hamilton or Pomona might also work as a signifier in certain quarters.
I can't claim any great in-depth policy insight - except perhaps my experience working with teenagers, and that has led me to be very gun shy about giving them free tuition. But the following strike me as plausible:
- Free two year degrees. Community and junior colleges do an excellent job with two year professional degrees. These are increasingly needed in our economy. They should be free and paid for by universal federal taxes.
- College costs need addressing. I have yet to see any real reason why college is so expensive. We know it's not paying the teachers, because of the move to temporary adjuncts. Why does college cost so much is a question I haven't seen adequately answered.
- College debt for four year degrees should probably exist under the following conditions:
+ All student loans should be issued by the government directly, not private lenders.
+ All student loans should be interest free with the term of the loan determined by the borrowers net worth and income. If you have little wealth and not a lot of income, you get longer to pay off the loan (again with no interest). If you are raking in six figures, pay it back sooner. Foregoing the interest in how the public subsidizes four year degrees.
+ Finally, student debt should be able to be forgiven by bankruptcy proceedings. The fact that this is currently not true is criminal.
+ There should be a generous expansion of Pell Grants to help lower income students bridge the gap between being able to pay off interest-free loans and simply not having a base of wealth in the first place.
I don't know if that's workable, but that's my plan.
It strikes me that offering free college at STATE institutions, we would create a two-tiered post-secondary world. Rich elites would dominate private institutions - even more so than they do now. A degree from Harvard always opened doors, but now Hamilton or Pomona might also work as a signifier in certain quarters.
I can't claim any great in-depth policy insight - except perhaps my experience working with teenagers, and that has led me to be very gun shy about giving them free tuition. But the following strike me as plausible:
- Free two year degrees. Community and junior colleges do an excellent job with two year professional degrees. These are increasingly needed in our economy. They should be free and paid for by universal federal taxes.
- College costs need addressing. I have yet to see any real reason why college is so expensive. We know it's not paying the teachers, because of the move to temporary adjuncts. Why does college cost so much is a question I haven't seen adequately answered.
- College debt for four year degrees should probably exist under the following conditions:
+ All student loans should be issued by the government directly, not private lenders.
+ All student loans should be interest free with the term of the loan determined by the borrowers net worth and income. If you have little wealth and not a lot of income, you get longer to pay off the loan (again with no interest). If you are raking in six figures, pay it back sooner. Foregoing the interest in how the public subsidizes four year degrees.
+ Finally, student debt should be able to be forgiven by bankruptcy proceedings. The fact that this is currently not true is criminal.
+ There should be a generous expansion of Pell Grants to help lower income students bridge the gap between being able to pay off interest-free loans and simply not having a base of wealth in the first place.
I don't know if that's workable, but that's my plan.
Monday, June 24, 2019
The Coming Fire
I was driving through suburban Connecticut when I passed a truck with a "Concealed Carry Defense League" sticker. I see a lot of them in my part of the state, one of the few red areas in an overwhelmingly Democratic polity. But it got me thinking about what is going on in Oregon. Basically, the Oregon legislature is considering far reaching climate change legislation. Republicans are incensed because reasons.
So they boycotted to deprive the Oregon Senate of a quorum. OK. Not great, but as a protest for a few days, fine.
It's where some of these "lawmakers" have aligned themselves with the militia movement and literally threatened the life of law enforcement officers. Sen. Brian Boquist said that police should send only bachelors and come "heavily armed." Now, you just know that these same self-styled patriots have "Back the Blue" sticked on their pickup trucks, but whatever. Oregon, you may remember, was where those militia yahoos holed up in a wildlife sanctuary for weeks, before one them committed suicide by cop as they were being arrested.
Let's flash forward to November 2020, and Donald Trump has just lost the election by 10%. Nevertheless, his aggrieved caterwauling awakens these self-same yahoos who are threatening police with violence (something BLM has not done to the best of my knowledge). Now, I don't imagine many of them will do more than post angry social media memes and fulminate online.
But how many Oklahoma City bombings are too many?
So they boycotted to deprive the Oregon Senate of a quorum. OK. Not great, but as a protest for a few days, fine.
It's where some of these "lawmakers" have aligned themselves with the militia movement and literally threatened the life of law enforcement officers. Sen. Brian Boquist said that police should send only bachelors and come "heavily armed." Now, you just know that these same self-styled patriots have "Back the Blue" sticked on their pickup trucks, but whatever. Oregon, you may remember, was where those militia yahoos holed up in a wildlife sanctuary for weeks, before one them committed suicide by cop as they were being arrested.
Let's flash forward to November 2020, and Donald Trump has just lost the election by 10%. Nevertheless, his aggrieved caterwauling awakens these self-same yahoos who are threatening police with violence (something BLM has not done to the best of my knowledge). Now, I don't imagine many of them will do more than post angry social media memes and fulminate online.
But how many Oklahoma City bombings are too many?
Sunday, June 23, 2019
Iran
I have no idea what we are doing in Iran. I've been skeptical that Iran has been engaged in the attacks in the Gulf, just because it makes more sense for Saudi Arabia or the UAE to provoke a war between Iran and the US than for Iran to provoke a war. While war with Iran will go poorly for the US, it would be a catastrophe for Iran.
Meanwhile, Trump seems to be flailing all over the place. We know Bolton wants to get his war on, but Trump does seem to instinctively understand that a lot of his supporters are tired of the Endless War. Then again, he also has the mental focus of a fruit fly.
Honestly no clue.
Meanwhile, Trump seems to be flailing all over the place. We know Bolton wants to get his war on, but Trump does seem to instinctively understand that a lot of his supporters are tired of the Endless War. Then again, he also has the mental focus of a fruit fly.
Honestly no clue.
Saturday, June 22, 2019
The President of The United States Is A Rapist
One of the truisms of #MeToo is that there is never just one accusation against sexual predators. I don't think Al Franken's sins were criminal, but there were a lot of them. The single accusation against, for instance, Aziz Ansari matters, because that was a single instance of a bad date. Sexual predators are predators; they prey on women. Plural.
We have yet another accusation against Trump. That makes roughly 21 women who have accused Trump.
He's a rapist. OK, accused rapist. Whatever.
People have noted that this will not have any impact on his base. They are, after all, deplorable.
But I think this is why about 55% of Americans say they will never vote for him. Still, for 45% of Americans, being a rapist isn't apparently disqualifying. That's just appalling.
We have yet another accusation against Trump. That makes roughly 21 women who have accused Trump.
He's a rapist. OK, accused rapist. Whatever.
People have noted that this will not have any impact on his base. They are, after all, deplorable.
But I think this is why about 55% of Americans say they will never vote for him. Still, for 45% of Americans, being a rapist isn't apparently disqualifying. That's just appalling.
Thursday, June 20, 2019
Words Fail
Jon Chait picks up an idea I expressed a few days ago. There is no appropriate language to describe the current rise of far right nationalism. We can use fascism, but that tends to backfire, even when applied appropriately. AOC's description of the internment camps along our southern border as concentration camps is technically accurate, but allows Republicans to whine "But it's not Auschwitz!" which...not the point, dude.
As Chait picks up, Trump hasn't been a full on fascist - in fact his current reticence to attack Iran is not something a fascist would do. "War is a force that gives us meaning," said Mussolini, and fascism is militaristic by definition. Totalitarianism doesn't quite work.
In some ways, white supremacist works, but that fails to capture the entire political nature of what Trump and others like him are doing.
As I said, we don't have a word for this.
As Chait picks up, Trump hasn't been a full on fascist - in fact his current reticence to attack Iran is not something a fascist would do. "War is a force that gives us meaning," said Mussolini, and fascism is militaristic by definition. Totalitarianism doesn't quite work.
In some ways, white supremacist works, but that fails to capture the entire political nature of what Trump and others like him are doing.
As I said, we don't have a word for this.
Wednesday, June 19, 2019
Dude...What?
Joe Biden has been a lazy campaigner, not doing any of the various town halls or rallies that other candidates have been doing. Why should he? He's ahead.
Or maybe it's because Joe Biden's single political talent is stepping on his own dick. And guess what kids? He did it again.
I'll let Jon Chait and Martin Longman explain precisely why Biden's gaffe was so bad, but there's a key bit buried at the end of Chait's piece: Biden is 76 years old. He suffers from all the foibles of the Boomers, including diminished mental flexibility. What's scarier? That Biden is just bullshitting about being able to convince Mitch McConnell to work with him? Or that he actually believes it?
Or maybe it's because Joe Biden's single political talent is stepping on his own dick. And guess what kids? He did it again.
I'll let Jon Chait and Martin Longman explain precisely why Biden's gaffe was so bad, but there's a key bit buried at the end of Chait's piece: Biden is 76 years old. He suffers from all the foibles of the Boomers, including diminished mental flexibility. What's scarier? That Biden is just bullshitting about being able to convince Mitch McConnell to work with him? Or that he actually believes it?
Monday, June 17, 2019
The Future Is History
I've been mercifully offline for the most part for the past few days as the missus and I have been on Puerto Rico. It's a magical place and I'm not sure I've met friendlier people. Which was weird because I was simultaneously reading Masha Gellen's The Future Is History, which tells the story of the return of totalitarianism to Russia by following individual's stories.
It's a sobering book in any number of ways. First, the aggressive anger in Russia is scary. Russia is a country in the grips of a psychic, narcissistic wound stemming from the collapse of the Soviet Union. I've always described Russia as a country that's justifiably paranoid. They are obsessed with threats, both internal and external, but history has borne our many of these fears. There is no greater historical moment for contemporary Russia than World War II. By any objective standards what Russia did in WWII was both impressive and appalling. Stalin's purging of the military led to abysmal performances by Russian commanders until someone like Zhukov arose. Russian tactics showed almost no concern for casualties and millions died because of it. And yet Stalin remains one of the most respected figure in Russia.
Gessen's book precedes from the thesis that Russia's lack of adequate humanities and social science left it without a language to speak with itself about its own past and therefore it's future. Russians don't really understand themselves and certainly don't understand the outside world. This has left them afraid, and fear is usually compensated with by a rising anger.
The parallels from Putin to any of the emerging right wing movements around the world are terrifying. I've alway presumed that Putin helped Trump win because he had Kompromat on him. That's probably true. But the links with Putin's political style and the modern "conservative" movement are striking.
- Racism and anti-immigrant politics. Russians are obsessed with their national/racial identity. They are demonstratively racist in their politics. Trump's "wall" would be perfect for Putin.
- Homophobia. Russian homophobia is chilling, violent and held by super-majorities of Russians. It's based on Orthodox Christianity, of which Putin has closely allied himself. Russians worked closely with American anti-gay groups in creating their policies and were praised by evangelical Americans.
- Militarized, toxic masculinity. Russian machismo is everywhere. This has led to Nazi-style hate groups. Russia was one of the leading sponsors of the NRA in the US. That's not a tactical decision on their part. It's a confluence of beliefs.
- Anti-Muslim bigotry. Muslims are considered sub-human by most Russians. They consider Islam a cult and de facto terrorism.
- An obsessive nationalism. Russians are convinced the rest of the world is decadent trash. If it's not Russian, they aren't interested.
Of course, Putin's Russia represents the Deplorables here in America, not the whole of the Republican Party. Just like Le Pen in France or Farage in Britain, they can really only lay claim to about 30% of popular support. That, in and of itself, is terrifying. They should be a fringe movement polling in the single digits. But so far, the West has resisted the nasty, divisive, fear-based politics of Russia. So far.
But Putin exploited - either by design or more likely by chance - Russia's disorientation after the turmoil of the '90s. Russia's economy isn't strong; Putin is making decisions like in Ukraine that are making things worse; Putin has no real plan to improve the life of the average Russian. It just doesn't matter. Putin is the Strong Man. He's the guy who takes no shit from any of those soft bleeding hearts. He's an instinctual leader. This is pretty much how the Deplorables see Trump.
Trump will use fear leading up to 2020 in every possible way. Fear is really the only thing he has to offer his followers. His followers - like Russians - have seen the world change around them and they are simply incapable of assimilating that change. Stuck in an imagined past, they cling to a sense of national greatness. Again, I don't think Trump did these consciously; he has just been steeping in it with Fox and Friends every morning.
Russia is broken. It's long term future looks bleak. But right now, Putin has outfoxed America by helping to install a certifiable moron with sympathies towards him and his politics. His tentacles reach into every Alt-Right movement around the world. This wave of reactionary political movements isn't limited to Russia, but Russia is its home base. From Bolsonaro to Duterte to Trump, the politics of reaction have gripped the world in a repudiation of its history.
That history is the history of Nazism, but Nazism, even fascism is a limiting way of describing those links. Putin isn't a Nazi. He isn't really a fascist. We need a new word to describe this new/old form of politics. Reactionary isn't, perhaps, descriptive enough, but it gets at the basic gist of it. There was a mythic past where part of "our country" was great, but then the Others came and destroyed it, and the only way to recover from this calamity is to trust in a strong man to lead us back to the great way that things were. That's Bolsonaro and Putin, Trump and Conte as much as it is Hitler and Mussolini. That's a demagogue making the people into sheep by telling them they are wolves.
When we throw around the word Nazi, with its inconceivable excesses and the mind-numbing horrors of the Holocaust, we lose the ability to make comparisons. Auschwitz wasn't the gulag. But it also was. The difference is in extent and not kind. Americans are committing human rights abuses on our Southern border. We are putting people in life threatening conditions and splitting up small children from their parents. That's not Treblinka. That's not Bergen-Belsen. It's not even a Siberian work camp. Not in scale. But by looking at the industrial scale of the horror of the Holocaust or Stalin's Terror or the Great Leap Forward, we lose the similarities in processes between the cataclysms of the mid-20th century and Putin's pograms against LGBT people and Trump's performative cruelty towards refugees.
Hitler is incomparable; it's facile to try and compare him to anyone else. The challenge is to actually divorce the scale of horrors in Nazi Germany, Stalinist USSR, Putin's Russia and now Trump's visions for America. The scale isn't the same, but the politics are scarily similar.
It's a sobering book in any number of ways. First, the aggressive anger in Russia is scary. Russia is a country in the grips of a psychic, narcissistic wound stemming from the collapse of the Soviet Union. I've always described Russia as a country that's justifiably paranoid. They are obsessed with threats, both internal and external, but history has borne our many of these fears. There is no greater historical moment for contemporary Russia than World War II. By any objective standards what Russia did in WWII was both impressive and appalling. Stalin's purging of the military led to abysmal performances by Russian commanders until someone like Zhukov arose. Russian tactics showed almost no concern for casualties and millions died because of it. And yet Stalin remains one of the most respected figure in Russia.
Gessen's book precedes from the thesis that Russia's lack of adequate humanities and social science left it without a language to speak with itself about its own past and therefore it's future. Russians don't really understand themselves and certainly don't understand the outside world. This has left them afraid, and fear is usually compensated with by a rising anger.
The parallels from Putin to any of the emerging right wing movements around the world are terrifying. I've alway presumed that Putin helped Trump win because he had Kompromat on him. That's probably true. But the links with Putin's political style and the modern "conservative" movement are striking.
- Racism and anti-immigrant politics. Russians are obsessed with their national/racial identity. They are demonstratively racist in their politics. Trump's "wall" would be perfect for Putin.
- Homophobia. Russian homophobia is chilling, violent and held by super-majorities of Russians. It's based on Orthodox Christianity, of which Putin has closely allied himself. Russians worked closely with American anti-gay groups in creating their policies and were praised by evangelical Americans.
- Militarized, toxic masculinity. Russian machismo is everywhere. This has led to Nazi-style hate groups. Russia was one of the leading sponsors of the NRA in the US. That's not a tactical decision on their part. It's a confluence of beliefs.
- Anti-Muslim bigotry. Muslims are considered sub-human by most Russians. They consider Islam a cult and de facto terrorism.
- An obsessive nationalism. Russians are convinced the rest of the world is decadent trash. If it's not Russian, they aren't interested.
Of course, Putin's Russia represents the Deplorables here in America, not the whole of the Republican Party. Just like Le Pen in France or Farage in Britain, they can really only lay claim to about 30% of popular support. That, in and of itself, is terrifying. They should be a fringe movement polling in the single digits. But so far, the West has resisted the nasty, divisive, fear-based politics of Russia. So far.
But Putin exploited - either by design or more likely by chance - Russia's disorientation after the turmoil of the '90s. Russia's economy isn't strong; Putin is making decisions like in Ukraine that are making things worse; Putin has no real plan to improve the life of the average Russian. It just doesn't matter. Putin is the Strong Man. He's the guy who takes no shit from any of those soft bleeding hearts. He's an instinctual leader. This is pretty much how the Deplorables see Trump.
Trump will use fear leading up to 2020 in every possible way. Fear is really the only thing he has to offer his followers. His followers - like Russians - have seen the world change around them and they are simply incapable of assimilating that change. Stuck in an imagined past, they cling to a sense of national greatness. Again, I don't think Trump did these consciously; he has just been steeping in it with Fox and Friends every morning.
Russia is broken. It's long term future looks bleak. But right now, Putin has outfoxed America by helping to install a certifiable moron with sympathies towards him and his politics. His tentacles reach into every Alt-Right movement around the world. This wave of reactionary political movements isn't limited to Russia, but Russia is its home base. From Bolsonaro to Duterte to Trump, the politics of reaction have gripped the world in a repudiation of its history.
That history is the history of Nazism, but Nazism, even fascism is a limiting way of describing those links. Putin isn't a Nazi. He isn't really a fascist. We need a new word to describe this new/old form of politics. Reactionary isn't, perhaps, descriptive enough, but it gets at the basic gist of it. There was a mythic past where part of "our country" was great, but then the Others came and destroyed it, and the only way to recover from this calamity is to trust in a strong man to lead us back to the great way that things were. That's Bolsonaro and Putin, Trump and Conte as much as it is Hitler and Mussolini. That's a demagogue making the people into sheep by telling them they are wolves.
When we throw around the word Nazi, with its inconceivable excesses and the mind-numbing horrors of the Holocaust, we lose the ability to make comparisons. Auschwitz wasn't the gulag. But it also was. The difference is in extent and not kind. Americans are committing human rights abuses on our Southern border. We are putting people in life threatening conditions and splitting up small children from their parents. That's not Treblinka. That's not Bergen-Belsen. It's not even a Siberian work camp. Not in scale. But by looking at the industrial scale of the horror of the Holocaust or Stalin's Terror or the Great Leap Forward, we lose the similarities in processes between the cataclysms of the mid-20th century and Putin's pograms against LGBT people and Trump's performative cruelty towards refugees.
Hitler is incomparable; it's facile to try and compare him to anyone else. The challenge is to actually divorce the scale of horrors in Nazi Germany, Stalinist USSR, Putin's Russia and now Trump's visions for America. The scale isn't the same, but the politics are scarily similar.
Wednesday, June 12, 2019
A Rout
Yesterday, the USWNT put an absolute beating on poor Thailand 13-0 in the World Cup. Sunday, the USMNT lost a dispirited, lackluster game to Venezuela 0-3 that was full of terrible mental errors and sloppy play.
Guess who gets paid more?
As this Vox piece points out, the US Soccer Federation is basically saying the men work harder and therefore deserve more pay. And while you can make a case that globally speaking, men's soccer makes a TON more revenue than women's soccer - either at the club or international level - that's not true in the US. The USWNT makes as much or more money for the US Soccer as the men do.
Because they're really, really good.
America likes soccer a lot more than chin wagging sports radio thinks it does. But more than anything, America likes winners. The men are a lost team right now, and could get bounced in the group stage of the Gold Cup, which would be a humiliation, especially as the women are favorites to win the World Cup.
Pay the ladies!
Guess who gets paid more?
As this Vox piece points out, the US Soccer Federation is basically saying the men work harder and therefore deserve more pay. And while you can make a case that globally speaking, men's soccer makes a TON more revenue than women's soccer - either at the club or international level - that's not true in the US. The USWNT makes as much or more money for the US Soccer as the men do.
Because they're really, really good.
America likes soccer a lot more than chin wagging sports radio thinks it does. But more than anything, America likes winners. The men are a lost team right now, and could get bounced in the group stage of the Gold Cup, which would be a humiliation, especially as the women are favorites to win the World Cup.
Pay the ladies!
Tuesday, June 11, 2019
Blind Squirrel
Richard Cohen is arguably America's worst center-left columnist. (Typically, he refers to 1992 in his column, because it's always Reagan's America for guys like Cohen.) However, he wrote that he has concerns about Biden's changed position on the Hyde Amendment. This comes with the standard pundit's bullshit about "flip-flopping" but this time it feels appropriate.
Cohen, again mired deeply in his imagined presence of the 1990s, sees a Democratic Party that has a sizable minority of abortion opponents. In fact, only 4% of Democrats want to overturn Roe, and I doubt they vote Democrat, instead holding on to a vestigial party identification. An additional 19% of Democrats want to see more restrictions on abortion, but that adds up to 25%. Interestingly, Democratic preferences on abortion line up rather closely with Independents.
That Biden couldn't see the Hyde trap coming is what is so worrisome, and Cohen notes that (after some obligatory tut-tutting over Democrats who use Roe as a litmus test). But mostly he's concerned that Biden is abandoning a deeply held principle in his changed position on Hyde. Does he really believe that Biden truly supported Hyde all these years? Biden is much more a compromise for the sake of compromise type of politician. That's one reason the activist base of the party is so deeply suspicious of him. His rhetoric about being able to work with Republicans after Trump leaves office is delusional. Supporting Hyde for all those years is part and parcel of the '80s and '90s Democratic Party that many want to see quietly sidelined.
Biden has been an extremely lazy candidate. He's not doing many fora or town halls. I can't recall him giving long interviews. He's coasting on his association with Obama.
This Hyde thing is simply the first time he's been openly challenged, and it won't be the last. Can a lifelong politician raised during the conservative ascendency of the '70s and '80s really become a fluid politician in the age of the internet?
I'm dubious.
Cohen, again mired deeply in his imagined presence of the 1990s, sees a Democratic Party that has a sizable minority of abortion opponents. In fact, only 4% of Democrats want to overturn Roe, and I doubt they vote Democrat, instead holding on to a vestigial party identification. An additional 19% of Democrats want to see more restrictions on abortion, but that adds up to 25%. Interestingly, Democratic preferences on abortion line up rather closely with Independents.
That Biden couldn't see the Hyde trap coming is what is so worrisome, and Cohen notes that (after some obligatory tut-tutting over Democrats who use Roe as a litmus test). But mostly he's concerned that Biden is abandoning a deeply held principle in his changed position on Hyde. Does he really believe that Biden truly supported Hyde all these years? Biden is much more a compromise for the sake of compromise type of politician. That's one reason the activist base of the party is so deeply suspicious of him. His rhetoric about being able to work with Republicans after Trump leaves office is delusional. Supporting Hyde for all those years is part and parcel of the '80s and '90s Democratic Party that many want to see quietly sidelined.
Biden has been an extremely lazy candidate. He's not doing many fora or town halls. I can't recall him giving long interviews. He's coasting on his association with Obama.
This Hyde thing is simply the first time he's been openly challenged, and it won't be the last. Can a lifelong politician raised during the conservative ascendency of the '70s and '80s really become a fluid politician in the age of the internet?
I'm dubious.
Monday, June 10, 2019
Unreasonable
When the Constitution was written, the primary malefactor towards human liberty was monarchical authoritarianism. If it wasn't a king, it was the specter of Bonaparte looming over discussions of freedom. Madison and others observed that chaos could lead to a strongman, so a system of government was made to allow government to function, but strictly limited what it was able to do.
After the Civil War, many reformers noted that corporations and trusts were limiting human freedom. This lead to the Progressive Era and the New Deal reforms that sought to balance their power with the state.
Today, we live in a New Gilded Age and we are increasingly ceding our liberty to corporations. We allow Google and Amazon to wiretap our homes and track our online selves. We give up privacy for the sake of convenience. And then some company loses our data and we scramble to adapt.
There's a coming catastrophe in privacy rights. Again, referring to Madison: Where the ability to do wrong exists, wrong will be done. Someone will take this too far.
Hopefully we will be awake enough to the dangers and hopefully we will have leadership that is awake enough to our demands.
Sunday, June 9, 2019
Trump's Road Map For 2020
Trump was arguably the biggest "minority" president since John Quincy Adams. Quite a few presidents have won the White House without winning a majority of the popular vote. Fewer have lost the popular vote and won the White House - Hayes, Dubya Bush and Trump.
Trump won by eeking out narrow victories in the Rust Belt, but there is pretty clear evidence that Pennsylvania is slipping away from him in ways that he won't be able to repair. Michigan is similarly looking grim. A lot of that is the defection of suburban independents who leaned hard Republican.
The next two states are Wisconsin and Arizona. Depending on the Democratic nominee, Georgia, Florida and Texas all enter into the equation.
Unless the Democrats nominate a train wreck, it's tough to see how Trump wins.
Trump won by eeking out narrow victories in the Rust Belt, but there is pretty clear evidence that Pennsylvania is slipping away from him in ways that he won't be able to repair. Michigan is similarly looking grim. A lot of that is the defection of suburban independents who leaned hard Republican.
The next two states are Wisconsin and Arizona. Depending on the Democratic nominee, Georgia, Florida and Texas all enter into the equation.
Unless the Democrats nominate a train wreck, it's tough to see how Trump wins.
Saturday, June 8, 2019
Neither Hyde Nor Hair
Joe Biden's decision to abandon the Hyde Amendment is an interesting one. Biden has positioned himself as the Clinton of the 2020 nomination. That would be Bill Clinton in 1992, not Hillary in 2016. He has decided that the road to the White House leads through the center of the electorate and that enough people will support him based on his relationship with Obama to carry him through the primaries.
The Hyde Amendment outrage caught him by surprise apparently. And that's odd. His revamped position makes perfect sense, but why did he need a backlash to get there? I've worried a lot about Biden. While I think he would have beaten Trump in 2016, I worry about what sort of president he would be in 2021. Democrats have the advantage of a supremely unpopular president and the potential to win back the Senate and hold the House. That could allow for major changes in infrastructure and the tax code. But larger changes - like immigration reform, abortion rights and climate policy - will likely require changing things like Senate filibuster rules.
Biden's staking out a claim in the center might win him an election, but if he can't read the temperature of the Democratic electorate, he could squander some of the mobilization that Trump has created left of center.
There's other concerns: his closeness to the banking industry, his age, his career as a poor presidential campaigner, but while he connects with many voters - especially African Americans - because of his connections with Obama, he seems to lack Obama's ability to read his base.
The Hyde Amendment outrage caught him by surprise apparently. And that's odd. His revamped position makes perfect sense, but why did he need a backlash to get there? I've worried a lot about Biden. While I think he would have beaten Trump in 2016, I worry about what sort of president he would be in 2021. Democrats have the advantage of a supremely unpopular president and the potential to win back the Senate and hold the House. That could allow for major changes in infrastructure and the tax code. But larger changes - like immigration reform, abortion rights and climate policy - will likely require changing things like Senate filibuster rules.
Biden's staking out a claim in the center might win him an election, but if he can't read the temperature of the Democratic electorate, he could squander some of the mobilization that Trump has created left of center.
There's other concerns: his closeness to the banking industry, his age, his career as a poor presidential campaigner, but while he connects with many voters - especially African Americans - because of his connections with Obama, he seems to lack Obama's ability to read his base.
Friday, June 7, 2019
Trump In Normandy
I'll leave these takes here.
One of the most profound experiences I had was travelling to Normandy a few years back. I'd waited my whole life to visit and it doesn't disappoint. Standing on Omaha beach just strikes you dumb. The cemetery leaves you mute.
Trump's malignant narcissism is actually one of his selling points to the Trumpenproletariat. It's about his contempt for their shared enemies. But every time he pulls shit like this - providing it's properly covered - he loses a few more people. Maybe they come back because "liberals argle bargle blah blah blah," but this has to have an effect.
Also, right now the best chance of Trump leaving office before January 2021 is in an ambulance. He looks and sounds profoundly unwell.
One of the most profound experiences I had was travelling to Normandy a few years back. I'd waited my whole life to visit and it doesn't disappoint. Standing on Omaha beach just strikes you dumb. The cemetery leaves you mute.
Trump's malignant narcissism is actually one of his selling points to the Trumpenproletariat. It's about his contempt for their shared enemies. But every time he pulls shit like this - providing it's properly covered - he loses a few more people. Maybe they come back because "liberals argle bargle blah blah blah," but this has to have an effect.
Also, right now the best chance of Trump leaving office before January 2021 is in an ambulance. He looks and sounds profoundly unwell.
Thursday, June 6, 2019
Casting Stones
During Pride Day, there were a handful of conservative Catholic clergy who were denouncing Pride activities and homosexuality in general. But at this point, it's hard to see the Catholic hierarchy as anything but an on-going criminal conspiracy.
I know that it's important for a working polity for each side to acknowledge that the "other side" is working in good faith from their own firmly held beliefs. I think the Laffer Curve and Supply Side economics has been proven to be fundamentally bullshit, but I guess I can acknowledge that people might still believe in it. The anti-gay bigotry is so often tied to hypocritical sexual behavior, though, that it's tough to see in them anything but the worst motives.
I know that it's important for a working polity for each side to acknowledge that the "other side" is working in good faith from their own firmly held beliefs. I think the Laffer Curve and Supply Side economics has been proven to be fundamentally bullshit, but I guess I can acknowledge that people might still believe in it. The anti-gay bigotry is so often tied to hypocritical sexual behavior, though, that it's tough to see in them anything but the worst motives.
Wednesday, June 5, 2019
The Two Front Trade War
This is an excellent summation of both why the China tariffs are - surprise! - a big giveaway to corporate interests and why the Mexico tariffs might be overturned in Congress.
TL;DR: Congressional Republicans are slaves to corporate America and corporate America wants a trade war with China and not with Mexico.
TL;DR: Congressional Republicans are slaves to corporate America and corporate America wants a trade war with China and not with Mexico.
Tuesday, June 4, 2019
Monday, June 3, 2019
The Special Relationship
Throughout the 19th century, the United States and United Kingdom had a fractious relationship. Partly a remnant of the Revolution and the War of 1812, it also had something to do with pacifying Irish voters.
As the 20th century dawned, Britain made a conscious effort to woo America as a counterweight to Germany (thus giving an example of extremely fortuitous long range planning), coming to a head under Winston Churchill's uniquely favorable standing among Americans. Since the end of World War II, Britain has seen itself as intricately tied to America, like an older cousin who has seen its relative outgrow them.
All of which makes this spectacle rather upsetting. Even more so, the MAGAts will still insist that Trump is feared and respect around the world. Dictators laugh at him behind his back and our staunchest allies are left to gape in despair and launch blimps in protest.
As the 20th century dawned, Britain made a conscious effort to woo America as a counterweight to Germany (thus giving an example of extremely fortuitous long range planning), coming to a head under Winston Churchill's uniquely favorable standing among Americans. Since the end of World War II, Britain has seen itself as intricately tied to America, like an older cousin who has seen its relative outgrow them.
All of which makes this spectacle rather upsetting. Even more so, the MAGAts will still insist that Trump is feared and respect around the world. Dictators laugh at him behind his back and our staunchest allies are left to gape in despair and launch blimps in protest.
Sunday, June 2, 2019
Impeachment
Honestly, I think Pelosi is just drawing this out so that everyone can offer their goddamned opinion...
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