Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Sunday, June 9, 2019

Trump's Road Map For 2020

Trump was arguably the biggest "minority" president since John Quincy Adams. Quite a few presidents have won the White House without winning a majority of the popular vote. Fewer have lost the popular vote and won the White House - Hayes, Dubya Bush and Trump.

Trump won by eeking out narrow victories in the Rust Belt, but there is pretty clear evidence that Pennsylvania is slipping away from him in ways that he won't be able to repair.  Michigan is similarly looking grim.  A lot of that is the defection of suburban independents who leaned hard Republican.

The next two states are Wisconsin and Arizona. Depending on the Democratic nominee, Georgia, Florida and Texas all enter into the equation.

Unless the Democrats nominate a train wreck, it's tough to see how Trump wins.

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