Doubling Down

Trump...ah, fuck.  I mean what the hell?  His trade war is a great example of Trump's political instincts dooming us all.  He's obsessed with never apologizing and never admitting he was wrong. As Emerson said, "Consistency is the hobgoblin of foolish minds."  It's what Hofstadter meant by the One-Hundred Percent mind. Dubya was the same way, but with Bush it was a war that killed at least a 100,000 people.  (The fascinating thing about Trump is that in many ways his presidency - so far - has not been as big a disaster as Bush's.)

No, Trump's crimes are largely rhetorical: his endorsement of white nationalist grievance, his violation of presidential norms and his consistent betrayal of our allies.  The G-7 is a great example, with Abe having to correct him on the new Japanese trade deal and Trump insisting that North Korea hasn't broken international agreements with its missile tests (it has) and Putin will be his guest at the G-7 next year. 

There was an article in the Atlantic arguing that Democrats shouldn't root for a recession. The article makes four points.  The first three are basically "recessions are bad, especially for groups Democrats purport to care about."  This is undoubtedly true. If, as I believe, any coming recession will be because Republican policies from the trade wars to tax cuts that exacerbate inequality and deregulation that creates bubbles, then the recession will be the creation of policy, not "the business cycle."  If, as I believe, the coming recession is a creation of policy, then policy changes could end it.  The Federal Reserve forced a crushing recession on the country from 1980-1982 in order to kill inflation.  Once inflation was dead and the Fed lowered rates, the economy perked back up. 

More broadly, a Trump Recession creates the third recession started on a Republican president's watch.  The Recession of 1991-93 was largely the end of the boom and a decline in defense spending.  The Recession of 2007-09 was created by monetary and regulatory policy. But they all came under Republican presidents.  Twelve years of Reagan Bush? Recession.  Eight years of Bush? Recession. Four years of Trump? Recession.  The argument of "Elect a Republican, get a recession" is exactly the sort of simple to understand message that can penetrate low engagement voters and depress identification and membership in the GOP.

If Republican policies are the problem - and from climate change to inequality to gun violence to voting and minority rights - they are, then discrediting the GOP completely is a necessary.  Yes, recessions are damaging to the poor, but so is continued GOP governance.

Ed Burmila, a few months ago, said, "It will get worse."  As Trump hears the rattle of a coming recession and and potential wipeout in 2020, he will become more unhinged.  God only knows where that will lead us.