I read something on Twitter that was simultaneously true and ridiculous.
Imagine if Trump - back in March - had led an aggressive, science-based response to Covid-19. Imagine that the horrific days of the NYC-centered outbreak had still happened, but Trump had led a successful campaign to stop it there, implemented a massive bailout program for business and launched an airtight national shut down for two months that effectively suppressed the virus. Under those circumstances, you could see a plausible re-election strategy for Trump. He rose to the greatest challenge of his presidency and some waverers would return to the fold. His negatives are still high so it would be a close election, but one he could plausibly win.
If Trump has a "positive" character trait, it is likely consistency. Trump doesn't waver, he doubles down. Trump is - above all - Trump. Imagining a Trump who listened to science, put off short term gain for long term rewards and asked of himself and his country to sacrifice for the common good is to imagine a Trump that isn't Trump. Now, I could imagine a Trump imitator in the GOP who will almost inevitably come later - Tom Cotton or Tucker Carlson come to mind - who weds the sociopathic appeals to white grievance with a base level of competency. Trump's not that person.
His incapacity for change is what endears him to his crowd of sycophants and acolytes in Cult 45. His insistence on attacking and doubling down is what makes him a "fighter" in the eyes of his cult members. Expecting something different is folly.
Biden looks to be ahead by anywhere from 10-15 points. He has substantial leads in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and is within the margin of error in Georgia, Iowa, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas. Taking just the substantial leads (and the Clinton states) and he has 318 electoral votes. Add the margin of error states and it's 414 electoral votes.
That would be different if Trump wasn't Trump is a pretty weak argument.
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