Monday, April 26, 2021

The Census

 We have the winners and losers of Congressional seats (and therefore Electoral College votes).

Given that Democrats tend to cluster in cities, there is a natural gerrymander in favor of Republicans, and in several states they have control of redistricting, which should exacerbate these trends. Still, here are my best guesses.

Democrats could gain a seat:
Colorado, Montana, Oregon
These Western states have seen some "urban" growth and Colorado, in particular seems ripe to add a Blue seat.

Republicans could gain a seat:
Texas (at least one, Texas gets two), North Carolina (from gerrymandering), Florida (gerrymandering)

States that are losing a seat:
California, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia.

I would think that Ohio will be a lost Republican seat and West Virginia HAS to be a lost GOP seat. Given the urban populations of PA and IL, the lost seats could come from rural areas.

It will be interesting to see...

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