This Fucking Guy

 I guess we still need to talk about Trump.

The GOP leadership, I think, is staring at two realities.

The first is that Trump commands the loyalty of a significant part of the Republican electorate in ways that they simply don't.

The second is that Trump is largely toxic in creating a national governing coalition.

I don't think the first point requires much elucidation, as we all know it to be true. The second point is one that I think is important. Biden's approval rating is solidly and consistently around 55%. Trump never sniffed that level of support. A lot of Trump's fear mongering about "socialism" and "American carnage" has not and will not come to pass. Trump's unexpectedly strong showing with Hispanic and African American men would likely erode if he ran in 2024. College educated whites will continue to be repelled by him in the wake of 1/6. 

Trump would still likely win between 40-45% of the national vote in a two way race. But would a John Kasich run as a Center Right spoiled and keep his numbers around 35-40%? 

Let's take that out across multiple races. The real worry for Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy is not necessarily that Trump wins the nomination in 2024, though I think he would do very poorly compared to his previous two runs. The real worry is that Trump creates his own party and fractures the Right. 

Imagine a scenario in 2022 where the Florida Senate race consists of Marco Rubio, Val Demmings and an indicted but a not yet convicted Matt Gaetz. In 2018, Voldemort impersonator Rick Scott won 50.5% and Bill Nelson won 49.93%. Let's drop Demmings to 47%, but let's give Gaetz that Trumpist vote, which we will peg around 15%. That leaves Rubio with around 38%. Voila, Dems pick up a key battleground seat.

In a scenario like that one, Mississippi, Louisiana, South Carolina, Kentucky, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Iowa, Indiana, Alaska, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Ohio and Kansas could all be in play or switch. That's six years of a Democratic Senator from Mississippi.

THAT is the nightmare that keeps Republican leadership kotwowing to Trump's splenetic whining. And it it's not going to end any time soon.