Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Sunday, April 3, 2022

It's Going To Get Worse

 To the surprise of no one who knows the history of the Russian military this century, it appears that war crimes have been committed in Ukraine. Given the way Russia behaved in Chechnya and Syria, this can hardly be a surprise. Of course, the question - as always - is: what now?

Ukrainian forces are pushing Russian forces away from Kyiv, but they will need more counterattacks in the south of the country to solidify things. Meanwhile, Russia is withdrawing from Kyiv to focus their forces in Eastern Ukraine. Attacking is harder than defending, so the burden will shift to Ukrainian forces.

Still, there is a decent enough chance that Ukraine can continue to pummel Russia enough to outright win the war to at least a status quo antebellum. In the face of these atrocities, can Ukraine stomach the permanent loss of Crimea and the Donbas? And what of the rest of the world? Even if Russia withdrew to their February positions, there is no way we could lift the sanctions. There is also no way we can keep imposing the burdens those sanctions impose on our economies. Most of the Westernized Russians have likely fled the country.

The DC press considered it a huge gaffe when Biden said that "For God's sake, this man cannot remain in power." As usual in these moments, the DC press was wrong.

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