Jennifer Rubin has noted Pelosi's strategy for dealing with Dobbs. It's a very interesting one and signals that Pelosi understands that finding popular positions and making the GOP vote against them is good politics. Here is her plan:
1) Hold a vote on a bill to prohibit prosecutors from searching women's health apps. There is a broad worry that some theocratic fascist like Ken Paxton will target apps that track women's menstrual cycles in order to find women who've had abortions. It also plays into our fears both of governmental overreach and Big Tech's ability to spy on us.
2) Hold a vote on a bill guaranteeing freedom of movement. States like Missouri are threatening to prohibit people from leaving the state for abortions. Personally, I think this is so blatantly unconstitutional that even the Guardian Council Supreme Court would strike it down, but again, let's see who votes against it.
3) Hold a vote on enshrining Roe. This has already failed on a party line vote in the Senate, so I'm not sure what the point of it is, aside from political. That's not a reason not to do it, but I think there's a slim chance the previous two could actually succeed, this one is DOA.
4) Additional votes codifying Obergfell, Griswold and Lawrence. This is really smart. (For the record, Obergfell=marriage equality; Griswold=right to contraception information; Lawrence=right to sexual privacy) I remains somewhat skeptical that there are votes even now for overturning these rights, as only the real fringes of American politics want to get rid of Griswold. But the recent decisions of the Court have made it abundantly clear that "they probably won't do that" is a terrible strategy.
In this retreat to Gilead, I've been monitoring my conservative cousin in Texas on Facebook. She is very conflicted about Dobbs and trying to rationalize that it's not "that bad" without looking at the trajectory of these laws in places like Missouri. Her friends - presumably also in Texas - seem more upset. A strategy that forces Republicans to choose between their theocratic base and potentially persuadable swing voters.
Right now, people are pissed. Between Dobbs and the January 6th hearings, they are furious at Republicans. The "generic ballot" between a "Democrat" and a "Republican" has swung about 10 points in Democrats' favor. That, however, could fade by November.
Keep the heat on.
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