Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Tuesday, June 6, 2023

Who Blew Up The Dam?

 A major dam on the Dnipro River has been breached causing flooding in Kherson Oblast. Early indications are that it was Russia and - because busting open dams is usually considered a war crime - that's likely the case. Why - aside from an almost constant sociopathy - would Russia blow the dam? It will have a negative impact on Crimean war supplies, and Crimea is central to Russia's war goals.

My guess is that Russia is hoping that a flooding Dnipro will allow them to transfer units from Kherson further east to counter Ukrainian advances there. Russia troops - man for man - are worse than Ukrainian troops, but they have more of them. Moving troops from Kherson by using the floodwaters as a defensive fortification would suggest that Russian manpower is being tapped out.

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