He's struggling to get past 60% as the de facto incumbent in the GOP primary. As Marshall notes, 60% is a great showing in a general election; it is quite weak as an incumbent in a primary. In fact, LBJ dropped out over something much less profound.
Of course, I don't know if that 40% who refuse to vote for Trump will vote for Biden or simply not vote in November. We can hope that there's some significant erosion, especially as his legal woes mount.
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