As Josh Marshall lays out here, the Israeli attack into Lebanon is simply qualitatively different than the invasion of Gaza. One thing he doesn't mention as a complication is that Hezbollah isn't really popular among many Lebanese and Syrians, as they have been part of the brutal Syrian civil war. Nasrallah's death was cheered amongst Syrian refugees.
The broader point is this:
Again, this is a hopelessly complicated issue which I’ve tried to lay out here in overview terms. The relevant point is that this is categorically different from the situation in Gaza. In Gaza, Palestinians live under Israeli military occupation. Lebanese citizens and Hezbollah do not. Hezbollah opened a new front against Israel starting on October 8th, 2023, in support of the October 7th massacres. Everybody who is expressing worry about this escalating into a broader regional war and the inevitable rising death toll of these actions is right to be worried. But it’s Hezbollah’s decision to open that northern front that gets us here.
Of course, the longer the generalized war goes on, the longer Netanyahu can cling to power. A potential crushing victory against Hezbollah would not only weaken Iran's Axis of Resistance but improve his odds of surviving the next election.
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