Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Thursday, November 21, 2024

Whither Libertarians

 Trump is signaling that he is going to be exactly who he promised he was going to be, if anyone was paying attention. All the grimness headed our way should surprise exactly no one, but the ill informed or willfully misinformed voters who elected Captain Tariff to bring down retail prices are likely going to be surprised when the leopards eat their face.

Just today, Trump came out against a bill that would protect press freedoms, especially their sources from government retribution. Hunh, the principled guardians of free speech like Melon Husk have no comment on this.

Martin Longman wonders if noted crank Rand Paul could become a thorn in Trump's side. Paul has long been a troublesome priest within the GOP caucus, picking weird fights with leadership. Libertarian principles are largely bad, but they are at least principles. Here's where the math becomes interesting. 

The Pennsylvania Senate race has yet to be called. If, against all odds, Casey can pull out a win, that gives the GOP a two seat majority. Murkowski and Collins are not completely useless, just mostly useless. On extreme measures - like killing ACA - they stepped up. They are delighted to cut taxes and appoint deregulatory judges, but I don't think they are on board with every Trumpist wet dream. 

The immediate impact after January 20th will be the deportations and Trump's plan to use the military to assist in that effort. Even before a single person is detained, using troops in American cities is exactly the sort of things that libertarians lay away at night fearing. (I had a Trump adjacent colleague say that the government warning social media companies to take down false health information during Covid was worse than January 6th.) If this really does happen, will Paul - as Chair of Homeland Security - take a stand?

The House presents a similar dynamic. Right now, the GOP has 219 seats out of the 218 you need for control. Gaetz has already resigned his seat, so they are back to 218. Democrats hold 213 with two California races unbelievably close both are under 400 votes apart, with each party holding the edge on one seat. Let's say they win both of those, which could happen given the outstanding ballots. That makes it 215-218 with a recount in Iowa 1st. If Stefanik goes to the UN and Waltz to National Security, that creates a 216-215 GOP majority. At best right now it's 217-214. 

Is there a single credible consistent libertarian in the House to gum things up for Hair Furor?

The institutional GOP has been a complete lapdog for Trump, but true libertarians might be the sort of odd bedfellow we need to stop the slide into a corrupt authoritarianism.

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