We are one-eighth of the way through Trump's second Reign of Error and Terror. Hopefully at the halfway point, we will have control of one or both houses of Congress and can more effectively fight back.
What is clear is that Trump's chaos and criminality are beginning to sink in with even the casually engaged American electorate. Here are some numbers via Simon Rosenberg:
Trump has become remarkably unpopular. In the new CBS poll Trump has dropped from 53%-47% (+6) in early February to 42%-58% (-16) today. That’s a 22 point drop!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Most major independent polls show a similar crash:
41% - 54% (-13) Quinnipiac
41% - 54% (-13) Ipsos/Reuters
41% - 55% (-14) Civiqs
41% - 55% (-14) Econ/YouGov
42%- 58% (-16) CNN
42%- 58% (-16) CBS
40%- 58% (-18) AP/NORC
There remains this assumption that Trump is immune to the basic thermostatic swings in American politics or that nothing every really touches the guy. That just seems obviously wrong.
Trump motivates a specific type of voter, usually of lower educational attainment and not terribly plugged into the nuances of the political process. For them, the system is broken and Trump has told them "he alone can fix it." Trump is therefore part of the broad populist revolt against the trends of the 21st century, where experts are held in contempt and only a "strongman" can fix things.
One reason the Epstein thing is so threatening to him, is because the basic narrative about Epstein is that it is a prime example of elite impunity. His crimes were discovered in 2008 and he got a sweet plea deal. It was only subsequent reporting that brought his second arrest in 2019. Preying on young women is considered in the QAnon and QAnon-adjacent spaces to be a telltale trait of the "elite."
Trump's base has nowhere to go if they finally realize that their chosen savior is, in fact, part of the problem. My guess is that they will simply stay home, disillusioned by having been duped by a career con artist. JD Vance is not motivating these voters.
The damage that Trump is doing to America and the world is real, but I don't want to overstate its permanence. Much of what Trump is trying to return us to is a world we left behind in the '60s and '70s. Few people actually want that. They wanted inflation to go down, they were gullible about Trump's business acumen and ascribed to him credit for the economy of 2017-19 that he didn't really deserve.
There is damage still to be done. Putting a fascist good like Emil Bove on the Federal bench is one example, the gutting of American education is another, the economic hit from crushing immigration is a third.
It's been bad. It will get worse, especially if the lights on the economy go from blinking yellow to flashing red (which I think they will). Stupid, evil people have their hands on the levers of power and if we have a real crisis, then we are really screwed.
It's a grim landmark, but it's behind us. We have more storms ahead.
No comments:
Post a Comment