We are flipping Iowa districts by 20 points from last November. Let's assume that this trend remains, though perhaps it is not so strong by the midterms. I can't find the Partisan Voting Index for the new Texas map, except this one. It suggests that the efforts to reduce the number of Democratic seats could actually imperil some Republican incumbents, as their districts may have gone from R+15 to R+7. If you get a ten point swing, then that district just came into play.
I would personally love it, if the efforts to gerrymander a Republican majority winds up costing them even more seats.
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