Lighting Money On Fire

 There are a lot of ways to oppose the actions of the Trump administration, because they are so indefensible. "They're wasting money" seems too mild considering the full bore assault on constitutional governance, but still...

Two examples of simply lighting money on fire:

- The idiotic move to change the name of the Department of Defense to the Department of War. This seems less than it appears (as so much of Trump's blather is) but it will still cost millions of dollars. If Congress approves it, it will cost billions.

- They are trying to kill a couple of satellites that report on climate change for the obvious reason that they don't want to report on climate change. This will basically flush away the millions of already spent money.

There are a thousand ways that Trump is causing problems with the national fiscal situation. His OBBB will explode the debt, which will require massive interest payments. His cratering the economy will then explode the debt even more.

Still, directly spending millions, even billions, on bullshit vanity culture war shit would seem to be a way to appeal to so-called fiscal conservatives.

He Can't Hide

 Trump may have fired the BLS head, but the bad news is still the bad news.

There is certainly the "vibes out there" of a poor labor market, especially for young college graduates. I've written ad nauseum about the demand constraints that Trump is imposing on the economy. If you A) put tariffs on lots of goods B) reduce the labor force via deportations C) introduce massive uncertainty in the economy D) hammer tourism as a sector by being an absolute prick to the rest of the world E) prioritize the rich over the working classes with your fiscal policy F) fire large numbers of public sector workers..

...then you should probably not be surprised by slackening overall demand leading to less hiring. 

Krugman noted something called Dornbusch's Law: The crisis takes longer to happen than you can possibly imagine, then happens quicker than you can possibly imagine."

Just saying.

Lethal Stupidity

 IRL friends or long time readers may know that I had a very serious case of Covid during the Delta wave. I was hospitalized, then went home, then re-hospitalized, then airlifted to Mass General, then nearly sent to the ICU before I spent three days laying prone to avoid being intubated. For whatever reason, when I got the Pfizer vaccine I did not have the typical reaction of feeling like shit for a few days as my immune system adapted. Since then, I've had a few cases that have responded well to Paxlovid, but today I got my booster because Covid sucks and because it has a serious impact on my colleagues when I'm out of work for a week.

When I went in, I had to have an "existing medical condition" in order to qualify, since I'm not 65. I guess luckily I have borderline high cholesterol, so they gave me the shot.

As we know, Florida has ended required vaccines for school children; RFK has crippled the CDC and attacked the idea of vaccines in general. All of this was, of course, predictable. RFK is a vaccine skeptic who lied to the Senate in his confirmation hearing and then did exactly what he always wanted to do: eviscerate arguably the most successful health measure in human history - rivalled only by antibiotics. 

(Let's pour one out for irony, as Florida is saying that people shouldn't have vaccine mandates because "their body, their choice" as they strip abortion rights away from people.)

This extends beyond Covid. Childhood vaccines - a literal health care miracle - will be reduced in uptake in red states like Florida. This will lead to a return in measles and many older people have declining immunity from their own childhood vaccines, so they will be vulnerable. Measles, mumps, rubella will all spread from Florida to other states as herd immunity declines. It would be just if this was simply a case of FAFO, but people who can't take vaccines or people with compromised immunity or people with reduced immunity because it's been decades since they were vaccinated are all at risk.

I'd like to believe that there will be consequences for people like RFK but the best I can hope for is that he dies of a treatable disease, because he won't face consequences in our corrupted court system.

Not Dead, But Not Well

 Trump is not dead. He appeared (late) to a press avail flanked by his minions in the Oval. Given his atypical disappearance, there was perhaps more parsing of his words and actions than usual. He was not drooling, but it was still deeply unhinged. Of course, most of his public utterances are just...nuts. He sounds like a fourth grader who was called on in class, but who didn't do the reading. The absolute blathering stupidity is just breathtaking for those with eyes to see. Trump's feral grip on his supporters and the presumption of expertise he has as a "business man" has hidden the fact that two-thirds of what he says is either false or bonkers or both.

On policy, we already have one state compact on vaccines on the Pacific Coast (and I hope soon in the Northeast). Richardson notes the fact that Courts are starting to be heard on a lot of his lawless actions and it's going poorly for Stephen Miller's plans for a fully fascist America. Epstein stuff exploded in the House today.

I try to live in a guarded hope for the future. My gut and experience tells me that there is a reckoning coming for the corruption and incompetence. I was watching the Spike Lee documentary on Hurricane Katrina, and it just feels like we are ripe for some catastrophe that will be made worse by the idiots running our government.

What seems especially clear is that Trump's diminished physically and cognitively. Maybe the media won't report on it, but it sure seems apparent to the naked eye. As that happens, it empowers people like Miller and Russell Vought. And they truly are odious creatures whose ideas are toxic. This past week suggests that Trump - whose one skill is "dominating the discourse" - could be losing that ability as he declines. 

Oh, Look. Corruption

 One of the funniest things I know is that Martha Stewart has spent more time in jail than her BFF Snoop Dogg. The reason was because she engaged in insider trading. We had an insider trading scandal with members of Congress during Covid. Most- but not all - of the apparently guilty were Republicans, but the idea that someone like Nancy Pelosi may have used some insider information about the economy in general to make investment decisions was treated as a scandal. It probably helped sink Kelly Loeffler in her Georgia Senate campaign.

We are getting some REALLY juicy insider trading stories running below the surface. This one is crazy.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick used to run Cantor Fitzgerald, a notably mercenary Wall Street law firm. His crotch spawn "runs" it while he's in government "service." Now we have news that Cantor Fitzgerald has been buying tariff refund futures. Basically, if DynaCorps paid $40 million in tariffs and the tariffs are ruled illegal, the government would have to refund that money. Cantor is going in and buying that future refund at about 20% of its' worth. They pay $8 million today against $40 million if the tariffs are illegal.

The tariffs are illegal.

Still, the bullying nature of the Trump Administration means that companies cannot be sure about retribution or simply ignoring the Supreme Court if it rules according to the letter of the law. This presumes the corrupt SCOTUS still cares about the letter of the law.

As hedges go this seems normal. The fact that it's Lutnick is just brazenly corrupt. It might not be the most corrupt thing to happen this week, but it would be the most corrupt thing to happen under almost every American president.

Something Is Up With Trump

 It's been about six days since he spoke in public. He's still at the White House, as there was a photograph from distance of him getting into the limo. What's more, the White House has released photos of him golfing and meeting people that are recycled pictures. Rather than quell the growing rumors, they have not had Trump speak with the press. As Scott Lemieux and Garrett Graff note, the media silence on this is baffling. 

Graff helpfully runs down the litany of strange health portents. Trump's bizarrely bruised and then covered up hand. The break in his rituals. The assumption of lies, perhaps particularly about his health. The even more garbled syntax and the constant falling asleep in meetings (even his trial from over a year ago). The swollen ankles. 

All of this, of course, takes place within the context of the media's absolute shitstorm over Biden's age and health. The silence is really something, and perhaps it's yet another example of no media company wanting to anger the White House. Which AGAIN is a really, really troubling development. The press SHOULD be angering the White House. That's entirely the point of a free press.

Still, Trump can't shut the fuck up for 14 years, pushing his bloated, orange face into our TV and laptops at every moment and suddenly he's media shy? We obviously can't trust the White House to be honest and we can't rely on the media to press the matter. 

This is when conspiracy theories bloom.

So put me down for a transient ischemic attack or perhaps an actual stroke.

If it is, in fact, neurological but not fatal, we are in a perilous place, as Trump and his Cabinet are not about to reach for the 25th Amendment even for temporary incapacity. The Cult Leader cannot be ill, it's not possible. 

Maybe Melania will smother him with a pillow.