Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Monday, September 29, 2025

Muscle Memory

 There has been some sniping (and by sniping I mean a full scale artillery barrage) directed at Democrats for their shutdown strategy. Because this is arguably the only leverage point that they have until and unless they get back control of one branch of the government, people want them to try and undo all aspects of Trumpism. 

That's not going to happen.

At least it appears that Democratic leadership is prepared to fight this time. The capitulation this spring was dispiriting, but this time people will be complaining about HOW they are fighting, as opposed to WHETHER they are fighting, which...progress, I guess.

The terrain that the Democrats have chosen is the expiring ACA subsidies. Krugman lays out how devastating the expiration of ACA subsidies will be. This graph shows what will happen in Ohio:


That's bad!

Note who gets really screwed: families and people nearing retirement. Now, the people in the exchanges are people who don't get insurance through work - independent shop owners, contractors, farmers, you know...Republicans.

I get my insurance through work, but I can expect the sky rocketing costs to shrink the number of insured people, which will lead back to the dynamic of using people who DO have insurance to help cover the costs of those who don't. 

Meanwhile, the Sundowner In Chief was posting AI slop videos about a QAnon conspiracy about "medbeds." Laser focused, Donny Boy.

There is an argument that Democrats win this war whether or not they lose this battle over keeping the government open. Health care is an issue people trust them on and the reduced salience of that issue has likely helped Republicans peel off Democratic votes. Arguing about insurance is a good way to remind people about the OBBB - which they hate. If Democrats win, they have "exerted dominance" over Trump. If they lose, people will be pissed about health care costs and know that Republicans are to blame.

Fighting this fight is the Democrats relying on muscle memory to get them out of a slump. 

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