Saturday, September 13, 2025

Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc

 Kirk's assassination was immediately pinned on the Left by Republicans, because Republicans have moved so far from a deference to actual facts that waiting even a day or two is irrelevant. Why constrain yourself and wait, when you have a political movement that routinely and repeatedly lies about known events? 

The behavior by the media is more troubling. It's not just the weird hagiography you get from people like Ezra Klein, rather it was reporting falsehoods from a politicized FBI without waiting to check them. The early reports of "pro trans markings" on the bullets were either wildly wrong or a misinterpretation. Meanwhile, there are reports that Robinson himself has said he's part of the Groyper movement. As someone said, Kirk should be seen as a victim of gang violence between his faction and Fuentes's.

The logical fallacy of post hoc ergo propter hoc seems to have warped press coverage. Because Kirk was an important conservative voice his death must be a boon to liberals and the left, therefore the liberals and the left killed him. As some calmed voices pointed out, most political violence comes from the right. What's more, the sordid deep swamps of things like 4Chan and Groypers have all been quietly erased from coverage in fear of appearing "unbalanced" or Dog forbid "woke." 

The inevitable corrections that will follow - if Robinson's leaked confession is true and not another internet rumor - do not erase the first narrative that often defines these moments. The power of a logical fallacy is that it often overrides more reasoned reflection. This is something Trump has really seized on. If you can lie before the truth is established, then the lie will have grabbed hold and created the dynamic of competing truths rather than truth vs falsehood.

It is difficult to catalogue all the ways in which institutions are failing us and have failed us in the Trump Restoration and Vengeance Tour. The failures of the news media are high on the list.

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