"Affordability"

 A few months ago, the Democratic buzzword was "abundance," based on the book of the same name. Mamdani and other's victory this fall has shifted the lexicon to "affordability." Krugman has been doing a primer on Affordability as a concept, and he has another entry today (paywalled). He's noted that in general ways, wages have kept pace with prices, and so while people feel that price inflation was "done to them", wage inflation was something they earned. Still, wages and prices have generally jumped together. 

So why are people unhappy?

He mentions Adam Smith, and Smith's idea that prosperity if fundamentally cultural rather than absolute. The passage he quotes notes that in some places, it's OK for the poorer classes to be barefoot, but in other places, everyone who doesn't have shoes is considered desperately poor. In 21st century America, Krugman argues, homes are the equivalent of Smith's shoes. Even if the price of groceries has been matched by wage increases, it doesn't FEEL that way, and because everything is expensive, a home purchase feels like a fantasy.

His conclusion is most important, though. It's not just that people feel like housing is too expensive; it's who they blame for it. Generally, they blame the rich and powerful. In a Politico poll, Krugman relates the following:

(T)the poll asked respondents who found health care difficult to afford who they considered most responsible (they were allowed to choose more than one.) Some 48 percent named the Trump administration — clearly bad news for the G.O.P. But almost as many, 45 percent, named insurance companies — there’s a reason there’s so much sympathy for Luigi Mangione, who murdered the CEO of United Healthcare. Another 19 percent named “billionaires,” while 15 percent named “businesses.”

On high housing costs, 42 percent named the Trump administration, but 34 percent named landlords, 19 percent billionaires and 17 percent businesses.

That's bad news not only specifically for Trump, but more generally for Republicans, because Republicans are typically considered more friendly to the wealthy. The great political triumph of Trump was somehow convincing people who hate billionaires that he was their champion. His destruction of the East Wing, his current argument that affordability issues are a "hoax" and the coming surge in ACA costs...none of these are going to make him more popular, especially with certain segments of his voting base. As Elliott Morris notes, maybe a third of Trump voters are not committed, lifelong Republicans. They are perhaps younger, less politically informed and likely more fluid in their loyalty.

This CNN story looks at how we are in one of our eras of wild swings in who controls government. From 1930-1994, Democrats held the House for all but about 4 years. They held the Senate, too, for much of that period. That's no longer the case, as control of Congress swings wildly back and forth. There have been numerous - and wrong - predictions about "emerging, permanent majorities." 

However...if Trump continues to screw up as badly as he has screwed up so far...if we enter the Crypto/AI recession...if he continues to prioritize his ego over voters concerns...maybe this time, we will actually get a realigning election.