Friday, May 4, 2012
"Healing Slower Than Paint Drying"
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2012/05/employment-report-healing-slower-than.html
A) The economy is getting better.
B) It is not happening fast enough.
A) The economy is getting better.
B) It is not happening fast enough.
The Stakes
To the battlements!
I think Booman is right here, in that there is a pretty plausible road to an Obama landslide. He looks to be solidly in the lead in VA and PA. While national polls are shaky, he's doing REALLY well in battleground states. I think he wins PA, OH and VA as things stand. I also think Romney is such a crappy politician and because his real vulnerabilities were only hinted at during the primary (Scrooge McDuck for President!) that momentum in the fall will tilt Obama's way.
Yes, the economy is soft - mainly, in my opinion - because of gas prices. But if the unemployment rate (as opposed to the actual number) keeps falling (and it has, even with today's Meh job's report), then Obama cruises, even with a relatively weak economy.
John Sides over at Nate Silver's place explains' the Obama is more popular than he should be. In this way more than any other, Obama mirrors Reagan. When we finished our study of Reagan, my students asked, "Why was this guy so popular?" And given the deficits and Iran Contra and divisive social issue politics, that's a legit question. The Teflon Presidency was ultimately about Reagan's likeability and his ability to make Americans feel good about being Americans. Obama has the first part nailed.
So absent a massive double dip, I think Obama's basic likeability and the fact that Metamorphamitt is a lousy politician means that Obama wins almost all the states he won last year. I think he probably loses Indiana and the Nebraska 2nd, but he might gain Arizona and Missouri.
Booman goes on to say that this outcome would necessitate a re-evaluation by the GOP. If Obama brings a wave along with him that wins the House and nets a seat or two in the Senate, then any sane political party would have to consider that pissing off women, young people and Hispanics is probably stoopud.
But honestly, is there anything sane about the GOP right now? And if the relatively sane members of the GOP say, "Hey, maybe waging a jihad on contraception, student loans and Medicare isn't a smart strategy" then that person immediately gets primaried by the Teahadists.
And even more significantly, the GOP base has their ready-made fall guy: Mitt Romney. If Romney gets buried, it will not be because people think Obama's cool and the Romneybot likes a functioning empathy chip. It will be because Romney was not sufficiently - or severely - conservative enough. Operating on the assumption that "conservatism never fails, it can only be failed" that made George W. Bush a liberal once his approval ratings his the 30s, any defeat in 2012 will be laid at the feet of Romney's insufficient conservatism.
Not to mention, should the Democrats do well in 2012, we can almost guarantee they will do poorly in 2014, given the prevalence of Democratic voting blocs to skip off year elections.
I'm calling it right now: Santorum will be the GOP nominee in 2016.
Thursday, May 3, 2012
The Problem Isn't Religion
And another thing God told me...
Click through:
http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2012/5/3/164714/1984
There are people in this country who refuse to believe anything that isn't in the Bible. The word for these people is not "religious" it is "idiots". These are the zealots and narrow minded prejudicial God botherers who refuse to acknowledge any advancements in human knowledge that weren't accounted for 2000 years ago.
I would love for God to appear in the heavens, wrap his arm around Charles Darwin and say, "My homey here is right, and the rest of you people... well, I clearly erred in giving you brains, since your never use them."
That would be an awesome God.
Meanwhile, the organized crime organization known as the Church of Rome has a problem in Ireland where it turns out the head prelate for Ireland knew about allegations against a sexually predatory priest and did nothing.
Any time you close yourself off to scrutiny and questioning, you're going to wind up seriously far astray.
F-ing Hypocrites
Funny, it seemed like only a year ago...
Remember how the GOP climbed onto the wahmbulance and complained that "EVEN JIMMY CARTER WOULD HAVE ORDERED THE RAID!!!!11!!"
Well, what does that make Donald Rumsfeld.
What's The Matter With Arizona?
Seriously. Is it sunstroke? Dehydration? Acute Old Man Yelling At Clouds Syndrome?
http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/03/extremists_go_to_war_in_the_arizona_desert.php
http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/01/neo_nazi_who_advocated_border_landmines_launches_run_for_sheriff_in_arizona.php
http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/05/jt_ready_arizona_massacre_border.php
Wednesday, May 2, 2012
The Blog's New Theme Song
We got a new motto from Abe Lincoln, time to get a theme song:
Well, no cannonballs did fly, no rifles cut us down
No bombs fell from the sky, no blood soaked the ground
No powder flash blinded the eye, no deathly thunder sounded
But just as sure as the hand of God, they brought death to my hometown
They brought death to my hometown, boys
No shells ripped the evening sky, no cities burning down
No army stormed the shores for which we'd die, no dictators were crowned
I awoke from a quiet night, I never heard a sound
The marauders raided in the dark and brought death to my hometown, boys
Death to my hometown
They destroyed our families, factories, and they took our homes
They left our bodies on the plains, the vultures picked our bones
So listen up, my sonny boy, be ready for when they come
For they'll be returning sure as the rising sun
Now get yourself a song to sing and sing it 'til you're done
Yeah, sing it hard and sing it well
Send the robber barons straight to hell
The greedy thieves who came around
And ate the flesh of everything they found
Whose crimes have gone unpunished now
Who walk the streets as free men now
Ah, they brought death to our hometown, boys
Death to our hometown, boys
Death to our hometown, boys
Death to our hometown, whoa!
Well, no cannonballs did fly, no rifles cut us down
No bombs fell from the sky, no blood soaked the ground
No powder flash blinded the eye, no deathly thunder sounded
But just as sure as the hand of God, they brought death to my hometown
They brought death to my hometown, boys
No shells ripped the evening sky, no cities burning down
No army stormed the shores for which we'd die, no dictators were crowned
I awoke from a quiet night, I never heard a sound
The marauders raided in the dark and brought death to my hometown, boys
Death to my hometown
They destroyed our families, factories, and they took our homes
They left our bodies on the plains, the vultures picked our bones
So listen up, my sonny boy, be ready for when they come
For they'll be returning sure as the rising sun
Now get yourself a song to sing and sing it 'til you're done
Yeah, sing it hard and sing it well
Send the robber barons straight to hell
The greedy thieves who came around
And ate the flesh of everything they found
Whose crimes have gone unpunished now
Who walk the streets as free men now
Ah, they brought death to our hometown, boys
Death to our hometown, boys
Death to our hometown, boys
Death to our hometown, whoa!
I Can Almost Forgive Fox News All Its Sins Just For Giving Us This
Almost...
This may be the greatest thing in the history of cable news.
This may be the greatest thing in the history of cable news.
Stephen King Is A Monster Under The Koch Brothers Bed
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/04/30/stephen-king-tax-me-for-f-s-sake.html
Nut graph:
What charitable 1 percenters can’t do is assume responsibility—America’s
national responsibilities: the care of its sick and its poor, the
education of its young, the repair of its failing infrastructure, the
repayment of its staggering war debts. Charity from the rich can’t fix
global warming or lower the price of gasoline by one single red penny.
That kind of salvation does not come from Mark Zuckerberg or Steve
Ballmer saying, “OK, I’ll write a $2 million bonus check to the IRS.”
That annoying responsibility stuff comes from three words that are
anathema to the Tea Partiers: United American citizenry.
Stephen King really is a helluva writer.
Unpresidential Is What I Say It Is
The stampede to the fainting couch is threatening to trample some journalists. Led by the atrocious Mara Laisson on Nice Polite Republicans, we are being told not so subtly that it is just beyond the pale for Obama to politicize what is arguably his greatest accomplishment as President. And in the middle of an election year no less! So polarizing!
Look, Mitt Romney said what he said in 2007 and 2008. I have trouble blaming him, because this was the crappy position he inherited from George Bush: "Bin Laden isn't that important." As per usual, Romney - in being forced to toe the GOP line - has taken a position that is difficult to defend in the light of how reality played out. So he can either flounder to defend that line or he can abandon it. Good luck with that Mitt.
But the idea that a President would play politics with foreign policy?
I mean the fact that he might gloat over something?
That he might think about spiking the football?
Well, my dear, that simply isn't DONE!
Sorry to harsh your buzz, sorry to tread on your toes, sorry to rain on your parade.
But:
Look, Mitt Romney said what he said in 2007 and 2008. I have trouble blaming him, because this was the crappy position he inherited from George Bush: "Bin Laden isn't that important." As per usual, Romney - in being forced to toe the GOP line - has taken a position that is difficult to defend in the light of how reality played out. So he can either flounder to defend that line or he can abandon it. Good luck with that Mitt.
But the idea that a President would play politics with foreign policy?
I mean the fact that he might gloat over something?
That he might think about spiking the football?
Well, my dear, that simply isn't DONE!
Sorry to harsh your buzz, sorry to tread on your toes, sorry to rain on your parade.
But:
Tuesday, May 1, 2012
Obama Is On His Game Right Now
Obama - or at least his campaign - is firing on all cylinders.
First, using the occasion of "Mission Accomplished Day" as a back drop, Obama is assailing Romney for his weakness on going after bin Laden - as stated by Romney himself back in 2008. Chait has a nice summary here. Josh Marshall says this (his unfortunate phrase) "bitch slap politics". Obama can rightfully point out that Romney publicly opposed in 2008, exactly what Obama ordered done in 2010. What's more, Romney's response was (predictably) weak. Jimmy Carter?
Wasn't Jimmy Carter the guy who ordered a cross border raid that ended disastrously because there weren't enough helicopters? And wasn't Obama the one who insisted on another helicopter which turned out to be pretty durned important?
Meanwhile, Romney can't use his new foreign policy attack dog, because this particular attack dog likes to hump other boy dogs and we can't have that now, can we Precious. So Romney by the end of the day has caved to anti-gay bigots and fired Richard Grennell and eventually caved on congratulating Obama for ordering bin Laden's death.
That's what Marshall means by "bitch slap politics". Ever since Reagan, we've been conditioned to think of the GOP as the manly national defense party. Carter's disastrous Eagle Claw saw to that. Before that it was Wilson, FDR, Truman and Johnson who led us into the nation's 20th century wars. But Obama made Romney look weak.
If he can continue to keep Romney looking weak, this thing won't be close.
Second, Obama decides to drop into Afghanistan (I hear Kandahar is lovely during the spring when the snow melts and the landmines spontaneously explode in the thawing earth) and announce a clear withdrawal plan. Romney will HAVE to say, "No, we should stay." Just like in 2008 he HAD to say, "Bin Laden isn't important." That's the GOP position and Romney of all people can't deviate from it.
So Obama just reassured the American people that we will be leaving Afghanistan in 2014 and troop drawdowns will continue apace as we shift away from combat missions. Most Americans want to be gone yesterday.
But their choice is between a guy who wants to leave in two years and a guy who doesn't want to (or can't say that we should) leave.
Obama seems to have some clear positions he can stake out that Romney just can't angle himself into a good position to rebut.
Etch-A-Sketch or not, Romney has tied himself to so many different positions that Obama can fence him into any of them he wants to.
On a final note, can we stop being offended that the President is committing politics during an election year? Bush politicized the hell out of 9/11. He held the 2004 convention in New York. Remember the "Wolves" ad? Obama has every right to beat the living crap out of his opponent. Please, Mara Liasson, just shut up.
First, using the occasion of "Mission Accomplished Day" as a back drop, Obama is assailing Romney for his weakness on going after bin Laden - as stated by Romney himself back in 2008. Chait has a nice summary here. Josh Marshall says this (his unfortunate phrase) "bitch slap politics". Obama can rightfully point out that Romney publicly opposed in 2008, exactly what Obama ordered done in 2010. What's more, Romney's response was (predictably) weak. Jimmy Carter?
Wasn't Jimmy Carter the guy who ordered a cross border raid that ended disastrously because there weren't enough helicopters? And wasn't Obama the one who insisted on another helicopter which turned out to be pretty durned important?
Meanwhile, Romney can't use his new foreign policy attack dog, because this particular attack dog likes to hump other boy dogs and we can't have that now, can we Precious. So Romney by the end of the day has caved to anti-gay bigots and fired Richard Grennell and eventually caved on congratulating Obama for ordering bin Laden's death.
That's what Marshall means by "bitch slap politics". Ever since Reagan, we've been conditioned to think of the GOP as the manly national defense party. Carter's disastrous Eagle Claw saw to that. Before that it was Wilson, FDR, Truman and Johnson who led us into the nation's 20th century wars. But Obama made Romney look weak.
If he can continue to keep Romney looking weak, this thing won't be close.
Second, Obama decides to drop into Afghanistan (I hear Kandahar is lovely during the spring when the snow melts and the landmines spontaneously explode in the thawing earth) and announce a clear withdrawal plan. Romney will HAVE to say, "No, we should stay." Just like in 2008 he HAD to say, "Bin Laden isn't important." That's the GOP position and Romney of all people can't deviate from it.
So Obama just reassured the American people that we will be leaving Afghanistan in 2014 and troop drawdowns will continue apace as we shift away from combat missions. Most Americans want to be gone yesterday.
But their choice is between a guy who wants to leave in two years and a guy who doesn't want to (or can't say that we should) leave.
Obama seems to have some clear positions he can stake out that Romney just can't angle himself into a good position to rebut.
Etch-A-Sketch or not, Romney has tied himself to so many different positions that Obama can fence him into any of them he wants to.
On a final note, can we stop being offended that the President is committing politics during an election year? Bush politicized the hell out of 9/11. He held the 2004 convention in New York. Remember the "Wolves" ad? Obama has every right to beat the living crap out of his opponent. Please, Mara Liasson, just shut up.
#OWS Is Back
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/04/occupy-wall-streets-debt-to-melville/256482/
My old friend Jon Greenberg wrote a piece for the Atlantic noting similarities to Melville's Bartleby the Scrivener.
Jon acknowledges that Occupy's amorphous demands actually became a political asset. Occupy, like the Tea Party, changed the conversation. Since Occupy began, we are having a much saner discussion about our nation's priorities than deciding whether or not to default on our debt obligations.
Reading the comments makes me sad. The privilege and obtuseness of the "get a job" attack is that this is the precise point: young people today can't get jobs. That the crushing debt they accrue through their education leaves them with fewer options to pursue once they graduate.
Few countries put such economic burdens on their students.
The average cost for a year of four-year college in the US is about $32,000.
The average cost for a year of college in Britain is about $15,000.
The average cost for a year of college in Germany is about $660.
When OWS says, "I'd prefer not to", they are not saying they don't want to work, but rather they want to do work that is spiritually fulfilling and allows them to lead a comfortable life. Instead they see a system where you either have to be already wealthy to afford college or work into your child bearing years to pay it off.
That is if there were any jobs around in the first place.
I'm not sure why that's so hard to understand.
Maybe if Melville wrote about the Tea Party, he would have called it Moby Dickhead.
My old friend Jon Greenberg wrote a piece for the Atlantic noting similarities to Melville's Bartleby the Scrivener.
Jon acknowledges that Occupy's amorphous demands actually became a political asset. Occupy, like the Tea Party, changed the conversation. Since Occupy began, we are having a much saner discussion about our nation's priorities than deciding whether or not to default on our debt obligations.
Reading the comments makes me sad. The privilege and obtuseness of the "get a job" attack is that this is the precise point: young people today can't get jobs. That the crushing debt they accrue through their education leaves them with fewer options to pursue once they graduate.
Few countries put such economic burdens on their students.
The average cost for a year of four-year college in the US is about $32,000.
The average cost for a year of college in Britain is about $15,000.
The average cost for a year of college in Germany is about $660.
When OWS says, "I'd prefer not to", they are not saying they don't want to work, but rather they want to do work that is spiritually fulfilling and allows them to lead a comfortable life. Instead they see a system where you either have to be already wealthy to afford college or work into your child bearing years to pay it off.
That is if there were any jobs around in the first place.
I'm not sure why that's so hard to understand.
Maybe if Melville wrote about the Tea Party, he would have called it Moby Dickhead.
Yes, My Loaner Computer Sucks
Anyway, the Mann/Ormstein piece is dominating polite conversation, which is good. Their criticism - effectively what many bloggers and Krugzilla have been writing about - is being taken seriously because Brookings and AEI aren't bloggers or Nobel Prize winning economists. Or something.
This piece from USN&WR could have been written at Daily Kos, right down to the "Obama is too much of an accomodationist" line.
The problem I have with blaming Obama for pony hunting is that Clinton "fought back" as the piece noted, but that hardly worked any better.
I taught the Clinton Administration in class yesterday, and I was fascinated to note all the similarities between Clinton and Obama. Two things Obama learned from Clinton's mistakes are to A) Stay focused and B) Get Shit Done!
Clinton's rampaging intellect bounced from topic to topic and seemed to be at the mercy of the Fox News/talk radio attacks. He spent a huge amount of time counterpunching.
And to no effect.
Obama has decided to take the high road and not respond to everything by throwing haymakers. Sometimes, this leads to horrible results like Shirley Sherrod getting fired for no good reason. But I think that the idea that somehow Obama's accommodation to the right "emboldens" them is silly. Clinton fought back, Obama doesn't. Either way, the Right attacks.
So Clinton's first term is remembered for raising taxes, cutting spending and welfare reform. Obama's is known for ACA, stimulus, GM and Chrysler and the debt ceiling fight. (And shooting bin Laden in the face.)
By any objective measure, Obama's had more legislative success than Clinton enjoyed. I'm not blaming Clinton, Obama simply learned from his mistakes.
But as has been noted, Democratic Presidents are only appreciated after they leave office.
This piece from USN&WR could have been written at Daily Kos, right down to the "Obama is too much of an accomodationist" line.
The problem I have with blaming Obama for pony hunting is that Clinton "fought back" as the piece noted, but that hardly worked any better.
I taught the Clinton Administration in class yesterday, and I was fascinated to note all the similarities between Clinton and Obama. Two things Obama learned from Clinton's mistakes are to A) Stay focused and B) Get Shit Done!
Clinton's rampaging intellect bounced from topic to topic and seemed to be at the mercy of the Fox News/talk radio attacks. He spent a huge amount of time counterpunching.
And to no effect.
Obama has decided to take the high road and not respond to everything by throwing haymakers. Sometimes, this leads to horrible results like Shirley Sherrod getting fired for no good reason. But I think that the idea that somehow Obama's accommodation to the right "emboldens" them is silly. Clinton fought back, Obama doesn't. Either way, the Right attacks.
So Clinton's first term is remembered for raising taxes, cutting spending and welfare reform. Obama's is known for ACA, stimulus, GM and Chrysler and the debt ceiling fight. (And shooting bin Laden in the face.)
By any objective measure, Obama's had more legislative success than Clinton enjoyed. I'm not blaming Clinton, Obama simply learned from his mistakes.
But as has been noted, Democratic Presidents are only appreciated after they leave office.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)