The Untethering

Balk like an Egyptian...

I announced to my class yesterday what I heard over the Intertubes, that Mubarak was stepping down.  A lot of "that's cool" and "great" and one student from China said, "It took long enough."

That last one is especially ironic.  Ole Deng Xiaopeng said as to what he thought of the French Revolution, "It's too soon to tell."  Add in the whole Chinese student impatient with the speed of democratic change thing and...

It's been a tad over two weeks since the protests broke out in Egypt.  Mubarak is toast, but he's holding on for reasons that can't be clear to anyone.

I think we're seeing a clear example of a central problem with authoritarian regimes.  Many have spoken about the Beltway Bubble that afflicts our elected officials, but the fact is American politicians absolutely have to keep an ear to the ground, a finger to the wind and a trite to the cliche.

Despots, like Mubarak, really have no freaking clue how legitimacy works.  Coercion works for a while, maybe a good long while.  But at some point, the illegitimacy of the despot trumps the people's fear of coercion.  Once that happens, once the people break free of the shackles of fear, there really is little hope for coercion to prevail.  At least against a majoritarian movement.

Sure there are counter examples, but take Tiananmen.  After the massacre, the Chinese regime moved to increase its legitimacy by bringing growth and increased standards of living to its urban elite.  The same urban elite who largely fueled the protests.

Iran in 2009 might be another example, but as Deng said, "Too soon to tell."

I think Mubarak's presence in the Presidential Palace can be measured in days, not weeks or months.  When the military stopped the Thug Riots, that was it.  Unless the military does an about face - and I don't think it will - Mubarak has no coercive resources left to him.  He's already promised to leave.  And there really is no one who wants him to stay at this point besides the Israeli leadership and his immediate family.

He's lost his grip on reality.

His grip on power is sure to follow.

UPDATE:  I think it's pretty clear that I was the guy who brought him down through the power of this blog.

Well, This Is Just Bizarre...

Valentine's Day, GOP style..

So, I get emails from the RNC.  I think this was my dad's idea of a joke.

I got one today where the GOP will send e-Valentine's cards.  Go take a look.

You click on a Valentine and you get a "joke" of some sort.  I mean, I guess some of them are meant to be funny.  Honestly, if this was the best they could have come up with, they should not have bothered.

And besides, as we know, all good Republicans use Craigslist for love.

Today Sucks, How Does Tomorrow Look?

It's official.  This winter is trying to kill me...

So, last night I heard something professionally that really upset my understanding of my mission as an educator.  But, damn, that is a weekly occurrence these days.

This morning, Thing One stumbled in as I was sleeping to announce that he threw up.  So, no school for him, which is ironic, because we are meeting with his teacher today to discuss why he hates school so much.  Maybe because it induces nausea.

Going downstairs, the Hound of the Basketcase - who had her babymaker removed yesterday - had chewed into her pain meds and gobbled down all the Deramaxx.  We know she's part labrador, I guess she's also part Sheen.

As I left to go teach, Most Sainted and Revered Wife of Wives was left waiting to hear from the vet whether or not she had to induce vomiting in the Hound of the Basketcase.  I imagine the house looking like this:

Oh, and with the bill for Christmas coming due this month, money is tight to the point where neither I not my wife can do any stress shopping.  She buys clothes, I buy Maestro Dobel.

The long range weather forecast suggests a coming thaw, but it seems to stay ten days away every time I frantically update AccuWeather.com.

One day, following regression to the mean theory, things will have to get better.  But I don't remember things being so great that the crap we're wading through now is balancing out any previous good times.

Time to buy lottery tickets in bulk, maybe.

Outsourcing This Blog

Things I am not doing: Writing about the House budget.

I was going to write about the stupid budget the GOP put out there, but Gin and Tacos does a much better job.

It's short and has pretty graphs.  Go read.

That Was Quick

Welcome to the Peep Show.

So, we have our first casualty of Congressional scandal.  GOP Rep Chris Lee of NY got caught posting sexy-time pictures of himself on Craigslist (Facebook For Pervs!).  He then immediately resigned.

No hiking the Appalachian trail, no "I did not have sex with that woman...", no tear stained confessionals.

I have to say I'm very disappointed in this lack of consideration for his wife for scandal mongers.  John Vitter visited a prostitute who diapered him and he WON RE-ELECTION.  John Ensign isn't going anywhere.

Somewhere, Jon Stewart is weeping.

Your Wednesday Morning Takedown

I'll just let the straight news speak for itself:

Sarah Palin’s request to trademark her name was denied after the former Alaska governor failed to properly complete her application. Sky News has the story: “According to official records the bid, filed by her lawyer, was rejected on the grounds that she failed to personally sign the application. The records also show that two examples she had given supporting her application were ‘not acceptable’. Her application specimens were a story from Fox News saying she had been hired as a contributor for the network and postings about herself on Facebook. According to the official record the specimens ‘are not acceptable because they do not show use of the applied-for mark in connection with any of the services specified in the application’.” But there’s still hope: “The Trademark Office has sent a letter setting a deadline of the end of May for Mrs Palin to provide more information before the application is abandoned.

Yes, Virginia. There Is A Stupid Claus.

So, there's a bunch of polls out about the federal budget.  TPM has a wrap up.

Here's the gist of it: Americans don't know anything about the federal budget.  They think foreign aid makes up 27% of the budget.  So, naturally, they want to slash it to about 13%.  Problem is, it makes up less than 1% of the budget.  So, you know, facts and stuff...

A majority of Americans don't want to cut defense spending.  But a solid plurality thinks spending more than three times more than any other country is overkill.  Needless to say, we spend way more than three times any other country of defense.

This struck me because of something I was reading about Reagan.  Mark Summer over at Kos makes the point that Reagan's presidency represented the triumph of fiction over fact. The famous welfare queen of Reagan's mythologizing never existed.  It was a classic case of Colbert's "truthiness" in action.  Same goes for foreign aid.

Obama made a decision to punt the fight over taxes until 2012.  Part of that was because the Congressional leadership punted on it before the midterms.  Whatever.

Obama has to begin educating people - those fickle moderate voters - about where the money really goes.  Everyone wants to cut spending that does not benefit them.  I'm sure voters in Florida are incensed about LIHEAP, just as I'm incensed about corn subsidies.  But the fact is, most government programs actually enjoy wide support, so cutting them isn't really an option.

Just look at the contortions and floundering we have seen from the GOP leadership as they try and stuff the Tea Party genie back in its bottle over spending caps and austerity measures.

Ultimately, we will have to raise taxes.  We will have to get rid of the payroll tax cap for Social Security.  We will have to raise taxes on people earning more than $250,000K.  And we will also likely have to raise some taxes on people making less than that.

Tax burdens are the lowest they have been in 60 years.  Since 1950.  And then we launched the military-industrial complex and the interstate highway system and all sorts of other programs.  By 1960, the top marginal tax rate was 93%.  Eisenhower was at least a real conservative, in the sense he cared about a balanced budget.  Nowadays, being a "conservative" means opposing tax increases on anyone, even the super-rich.

Now, there is no evidence that increasing taxes on the super-rich does one damned thing to hurt the economy.

But that's just a fact.  And we live in Reagan's America.

Facts don't mean squat.

Another Day Older...

Yeah, I got nothing, but Vader is everywhere...

Quarter grades being due tomorrow, I spent the day alternately grading and driving to the train station to pick up returning students from long weekend.  After spending some time talking to a nice lady in Bangalore about why our new router won't talk to our Apple products ("Bad racist router!"), I just wanted to watch some schlocky TV.  I couldn't even find that.  And the shows I wanted to watch from F/X don't show up on Hulu.

Eventually, I think we will move to internet based television, but I wonder how fast it will be if shows like "Justified" or "The Walking Dead" aren't available via GoogleTV or whatever.

Anyway, a technological quandry.

Oh, and we are currently very popular in Slovenia!  Go Slovenia!

Deep Thoughts On The Super Bowl

Sad Vader wishes the beer commercials had been funnier.

Not a terribly well played game, but entertaining.  Pittsburgh kept giving the ball away and Green Bay kept making stupid penalties and dropping passes.  But a decently entertaining game.

Which is good, because the peripherals, which are usually the best part, sucked.

The ads were largely forgettable with the exception of a few car spots, notably Volkswagen (sad Vader), BMW and Chrysler.  There was a funny Dorito's ad... Dunno, as I said, forgettable.

The half time show was excellent.  Because I switched over to F/X to watch Kung Fu Panda for the 342,865th time.  As the Most Splendid And Radiant Spouse To Ever Grace God's Green Earth said, "Does anyone sing anymore, or do they just dance?"  I'm trying to think of who I would like to see play the halftime show next year.  Maybe Ryan Adams, because there would be an excellent change he would show up drunk or stoned and throw something at the dancers before urinating off the side of the stage.

Now THAT'S ENTERTAINMENT!

Here is Mssr Adams:

And here is Sad Vader pitching Passats, because it's still awesome:

Seriously, that kid/midget deserves an Oscar or something.

The End O'The World

Now is no time to panic...

Some Guy over at Ezra Klein's place cites a piece by Matt Yglesias that say the Constitution will "cease to be operative at some point in our lifetimes."  He then mentions some guy in the Carter Administration who wanted a more Parliamentary system.  Friday night someone else I know was talking about how the American system was doomed.

I don't buy it.

Governments, to use the poli-sci language, are made up of people.  They come and go.

Regimes - and the Constitution constitutes a regime - are very hard to change.  And the longer they stay around, the harder they are to change.  Institutions are sticky, they aren't changed lightly.

The Guy over at Kleins and Yglesias seem to think a new Constitutional Convention would be easy.  Puh-lease.  The only reason to call an amendment convention would be to get around Congress.  So, for campaign finance reform it would make sense.  But add the stupidity that passes for public discourse this day and could you imagine the sort of nincompoops that would attend this thing?  It would not be the "demigods" of Philadelphia, it would be people who read all of Glenn Beck's books.

Look, parliamentary systems are very appealing in times of crisis.  They can act emphatically.  But there are appeals to the presidential system, too.  One being there inherent conservatism.  And there defense of the people's freedoms.

It's just too hard to look at what's happening today as being worse than the 1970s, with Vietnam, Watergate, stagflation and racial tension.  But some people are insistent in seeing the crisis of their day as being the WORSTEST CRISIS EVAH!

So, in a few years, when unemployment is at 6% and falling and almost everyone has health care and Obama is at a summit with the democratically elected president of Egypt (is Shakira eligible?), my guess is that the cries for a new constitution will seem quaint.

The Reagan Myth

As we near the Gipper's centennial, we will hear a bunch of crap - most of it false - about Reagan's legacy.

Read Will Bunch to see how wrong most of it is:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2011/02/04/ST2011020403674.html?hpid=topnews

The fact is that Reagan would be a moderate Republican if he were alive today.  And if Tim Pawlenty were alive today, he would be, too.  (Ba Dump Bump)  For all the incessant fluffing of Reagan by Limbaugh, Palin and every living member of the GOP's right wing, he was a rhetorical conservative, but a governing moderate-conservative.

Now, what he did do was change the acceptable parameters of debate about government.  But he didn't follow through, as Bunch notes, in shrinking anything about the federal government.  In fact, movement conservatives take almost the opposite lessons from Reagan than the historical record suggests.

Take abortion rights.  Via Bunch, Reagan signed legal abortion into law as governor of California, and while he spoke out against it, he didn't make it the centerpiece of his agenda.  Look at the House today.  In the presence of 9% unemployment, a declining infrastructure and faltering education, the House is obsessed with redefining rape to make it harder for victims to get abortions.

Now, maybe if Reagan were a modern Republican, he'd hold the same positions as Jim DeMint or Michelle Bachmann.  Maybe his comparative moderation is a legacy of his being an old New Deal Democrat.  If he were born into Goldwater's Republican party instead of Dewey and Eisenhower's GOP, maybe he'd be a frothing wingnut, too.  But frankly, the contemporary equivalent of Reagan would be Boehner.  Speak Right, but understand that you have to govern.

This speaks to how the times shape attitudes and ideas.  The Right has spent two decades making Reagan into the litmus test of modern conservatism, but they have also shaped his legacy into something more attune with Michael Reagan's ideas than Nancy's.  In fact, the real Father of Modern Conservatism is not Reagan and his deal to save Social Security, but Newt Gingrich and his government shutdown.

And I don't mean to say that Reagan was some swell moderate centrist.  What he did was transfer the tax burden from the wealthy to the middle class and created the modern environment of deficits and stagnant wage growth for the overwhelming majority of Americans.  I think his ideas sucked, but they are not the ideas of the Tea Party Express.

In some ways, this is why history and historical accuracy is so important.  We currently have one of our two parties swearing fealty to the ideas of a man who never possessed those ideas.

Reagan is the Man Who Wasn't There.

How To Be A Citizen

I don't know how to format TED videos, so I'll just give you the link to where I saw it:

http://www.balloon-juice.com/2011/02/04/no-his-mind-is-not-for-rent/

It's a great piece of advice if you want to be important in the civic life of your area.

Snow, Snow, Go Away

There have been many drawbacks to the incessant snow.  First, my shoulders and back are aching from the shoveling, wrestling the snow blower and, today, hacking at six inches of ice with a hatchet.  On the other hand, I've lost about five pounds.

Second, and no less exhausting, is the fact that Thing One and Thing Two have been in school for about an hour and a half since December. On Monday, there was school, but Thing Two was sick and stayed home.

Both of which means you're always tired and can't do some of the things you NEED to do (grading most especially) much less what you WANT to do.

I have one very important ritual.  Every Wednesday after seeing the Things off to school, I go down to Susan's Country Kitchen for a sausage, egg and cheese on a hard roll, a toasted buttery muffin and several cups of perfectly adequate coffee.  The real attraction - besides a very good sausage, egg and cheese - is the book I take with me.

Some time in October or perhaps September, I started Daniel Walker Howe's What Hath God Wrought as part of my quixotic commitment to reading all of the Oxford Histories of the United States.  The book is long (about 850 pages), the chapters run about 40-50 pages, but each chapter is broken down into subsections that are quite manageable during a Wednesday morning breakfast break.

The book covers the period from 1815-1848.  I finished Gordon Wood's Empire of Liberty, the preceding volume in the Oxford series, and could hardly wait to read the next one.

I'm supposed to be a teacher, not a professor.  I'm not a scholar first.  Or at least, I'm not supposed to be.  Teaching and knowing aren't the same thing, and teaching is supposed to be the priority.

So, my Wednesday morning is my own attempt to be a "knower" as well as a "teacher".  And snow days are killing it.  We have a long weekend and I just spent an hour reading about Lowell mill girls and slaves participation in the market economy and agrarian revolt in upstate New York, while my car was having an oil change.

I have no idea whether that will make me a better "teacher" or even if it will stick in my head enough to improve me as a "knower".  But I figure I have to keep trying.

If only it would stop snowing long enough to have an intellectual moment...

Sorry For No Posts Today

So I leave you with this.  The best Super Bowl commercial this Sunday.

I can only assume that Vader was played by Thing One.

Also, too, because you deserve the best.... This...

Please, Please, Please, Read This

http://www.theonion.com/articles/republicans-vote-to-repeal-obamabacked-bill-that-w,19025/

It's the Onion.  That's all you need to know.