It is undeniably good news that Al Baghdadi is dead. Of course, Trump's press conference was the usual blend of narcissism, self-aggrandizement and blatant disregard for objective facts that we might expect.
It's striking, but unsurprising that he shared news of the raid with Russia and not Pelosi or Schiff. What's more interesting is how they found him and the timing. Why - with the Kurds in full retreat - was this the hour we were able to find him? Who gave us the information and most importantly, have they always known his location? Did the Kurds do it, trying to gain leverage in their bad situation? More ominously, did Russia, Syria or Turkey give Trump this information in order to boost his sagging fortunes within his own party in the wake of his disastrous policy blunders in Syria? It wouldn't surprise me if the Turks knew where he was all along and only shared it with us, because of the strain their ethnic cleansing has created and to help out Trump, who they know is much more friendly to Erdogan than any other American politician will be.
Worth looking in to.
Sunday, October 27, 2019
Friday, October 25, 2019
Cassandra
In Greek mythology, Cassandra was cursed with the gift of being able to tell the future but also having no one believe her prophecies.
This must be how Hillary Clinton feels every morning.
Obviously, Donald Trump has proven to be everything Clinton predicted he would be, but now we have an interesting example just this week. In some ways this is the perfect Hillary story.
Hillary Clinton went on a podcast and said that Republicans were grooming a Democrat for a third party run. The NY Times - who has never missed an opportunity to shit on the Clintons - WROTE THE WRONG THING and said that Clinton said the Russians were grooming this anonymous Democrat for the third party run. She instead was suggesting that Trump was a Russian asset, which he certainly appears to be.
Anyway, Tulsi Gabbard jumps up and screams, "How dare you call me a Russian asset!" Now, Clinton never mentioned Gabbard by name, but Gabbard knew she must have been talking about her, because she has a long history of affinity for Putin and others like Bashar al Assad.
Some Never Trump hangwringers like Tom Nichols who have a long history of hating Hillary blame her for the possibility that Gabbard might run third party. (Third party spoilers seem Trump's only hope of winning at this point.)
So, to recap: Hillary says that there's a Democrat being groomed by Republicans for a third party run, the Times screws up it's reporting, centrists blame Clinton for pointing out something that appears to be true.
Anyway, this morning Gabbard said she's not running for re-election. She's criticizing the impeachment proceedings on Fox with Fox News talking points.
She's a Republican. She has been a Republican. Hillary basically pointed out that Gabbard is an impostor Democrat, because that's exactly what Gabbard is and always has been. Clinton gets blamed for Gabbard doing the thing that she was always going to do.
I've worried that Elizabeth Warren will be treated the same way Hillary Clinton was, but there really is something especially pathological about the way Clinton has been treated over the past 30 years.
This must be how Hillary Clinton feels every morning.
Obviously, Donald Trump has proven to be everything Clinton predicted he would be, but now we have an interesting example just this week. In some ways this is the perfect Hillary story.
Hillary Clinton went on a podcast and said that Republicans were grooming a Democrat for a third party run. The NY Times - who has never missed an opportunity to shit on the Clintons - WROTE THE WRONG THING and said that Clinton said the Russians were grooming this anonymous Democrat for the third party run. She instead was suggesting that Trump was a Russian asset, which he certainly appears to be.
Anyway, Tulsi Gabbard jumps up and screams, "How dare you call me a Russian asset!" Now, Clinton never mentioned Gabbard by name, but Gabbard knew she must have been talking about her, because she has a long history of affinity for Putin and others like Bashar al Assad.
Some Never Trump hangwringers like Tom Nichols who have a long history of hating Hillary blame her for the possibility that Gabbard might run third party. (Third party spoilers seem Trump's only hope of winning at this point.)
So, to recap: Hillary says that there's a Democrat being groomed by Republicans for a third party run, the Times screws up it's reporting, centrists blame Clinton for pointing out something that appears to be true.
Anyway, this morning Gabbard said she's not running for re-election. She's criticizing the impeachment proceedings on Fox with Fox News talking points.
She's a Republican. She has been a Republican. Hillary basically pointed out that Gabbard is an impostor Democrat, because that's exactly what Gabbard is and always has been. Clinton gets blamed for Gabbard doing the thing that she was always going to do.
I've worried that Elizabeth Warren will be treated the same way Hillary Clinton was, but there really is something especially pathological about the way Clinton has been treated over the past 30 years.
Thursday, October 24, 2019
The Party of Fox
Yesterday's illegal and ill-considered storming of a secure facility in the Capitol achieved very little in any meaningful terms. The witness was finally allowed to testify, they beclowned themselves and there is a possibility of serious repercussions. At the very least, they should lose their security clearances.
Why did they do it? To play something on Fox about impeachment that wasn't directly damaging to the president. Trump knew about it. Cameras were there (including those on their phones, which - again - illegal) and it was entirely pitched to maximize the visuals. They clearly expected to be arrested so they could make the risible comparison of themselves to MLK.
Also yesterday, Almost A Real Boy Mark Zuckerberg was dragged back and forth across another House hearing room by Katie Porter and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez over Facebook's brazen stands on spreading lies and how they treat their workers. The two are clearly linked as the Right builds up an information ecosystem that is divorced from reality. Shep Smith is gone from Fox and whatever attempt they made to report real news is likely right behind him.
Trump's idiocy was on display last night when he promised to "build that wall" in Colorado. The crowd cheered. This is the level of rank stupidity and ignorance that we are dealing with, and it will get worse as the Right retreats into their informational safe spaces where Trump is a uniquely successful president in getting stuff done. They honestly believe his agenda has matched people like FDR or LBJ or even Reagan. Trump has passed a massive, regressive, unpopular tax cut and stuffed unqualified, reactionary judges on the bench. As far as "positive" accomplishments, that's pretty much it. But in the informational biome of Fox News, he's Caesar Augustus combined with Christ.
We know part of how this will end. Trump will leave office in disgrace, either by election or impeachment and removal (the latter is no longer impossible), at which point Fox and RW Wurlitzer will turn on him, then ignore him.
These people are high on their own bullshit and they are taking the country with them.
Why did they do it? To play something on Fox about impeachment that wasn't directly damaging to the president. Trump knew about it. Cameras were there (including those on their phones, which - again - illegal) and it was entirely pitched to maximize the visuals. They clearly expected to be arrested so they could make the risible comparison of themselves to MLK.
Also yesterday, Almost A Real Boy Mark Zuckerberg was dragged back and forth across another House hearing room by Katie Porter and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez over Facebook's brazen stands on spreading lies and how they treat their workers. The two are clearly linked as the Right builds up an information ecosystem that is divorced from reality. Shep Smith is gone from Fox and whatever attempt they made to report real news is likely right behind him.
Trump's idiocy was on display last night when he promised to "build that wall" in Colorado. The crowd cheered. This is the level of rank stupidity and ignorance that we are dealing with, and it will get worse as the Right retreats into their informational safe spaces where Trump is a uniquely successful president in getting stuff done. They honestly believe his agenda has matched people like FDR or LBJ or even Reagan. Trump has passed a massive, regressive, unpopular tax cut and stuffed unqualified, reactionary judges on the bench. As far as "positive" accomplishments, that's pretty much it. But in the informational biome of Fox News, he's Caesar Augustus combined with Christ.
We know part of how this will end. Trump will leave office in disgrace, either by election or impeachment and removal (the latter is no longer impossible), at which point Fox and RW Wurlitzer will turn on him, then ignore him.
These people are high on their own bullshit and they are taking the country with them.
Wednesday, October 23, 2019
Good Germans
Republicans are nothing if not "good Germans." They know how to follow orders. When they get their ludicrous talking points, they know how to stick with them. Yesterday, Stupid Watergate found its John Dean in Ambassador Bill Taylor, who told us what we already know, but did so with a level of detail that makes a lot of Trump's prefered defenses crumble.
Since the President's conduct has become less and less defensible, Republicans are falling back on a bullshit process argument. Their argument seems to be...well, I think it is simply to repeat the word process over and over again for Fox News cultists. This will eventually leak into your Facebook feeds, so get ready for it.
Their argument, if we can dignify it with that term, is that Trump hasn't had a chance to defend himself, and that most of testimony is behind closed doors. Of course, what we are seeing now is effectively the Grand Jury phase, where prosecutors meet behind those closed doors and present evidence. Eventually, they will present this evidence to the House and the President can defend himself in the Senate. That's the process, and it's completely normal to the degree that anything is normal about this. In fact, unlike a Grand Jury, Trump has people inside the room seeing the evidence against him.
We also have a novel argument being advanced by Matt Whitaker, toilet salesman for people who large genitalia and former acting AG. His argument was that "abuse of power was not a crime." This goes back to the argument that there is no crime called "collusion" but rather conspiracy. Of course, while Trump HAS committed crimes in the Ukraine scandal (campaign finance crimes especially, emoluments more generally), abuse of power is not listed in the US criminal code. As counterargument: who cares? Abuse of power is EXACTLY what impeachment is for.
The target date for wrapping up the impeachment process was Thanksgiving. This was likely done to prevent the Senate trial from bleeding over into an election year. If the next month is as bad for the president and the GOP as this past month has been, I don't know how much longer they can keep moving the goalposts to protect him.
Since the President's conduct has become less and less defensible, Republicans are falling back on a bullshit process argument. Their argument seems to be...well, I think it is simply to repeat the word process over and over again for Fox News cultists. This will eventually leak into your Facebook feeds, so get ready for it.
Their argument, if we can dignify it with that term, is that Trump hasn't had a chance to defend himself, and that most of testimony is behind closed doors. Of course, what we are seeing now is effectively the Grand Jury phase, where prosecutors meet behind those closed doors and present evidence. Eventually, they will present this evidence to the House and the President can defend himself in the Senate. That's the process, and it's completely normal to the degree that anything is normal about this. In fact, unlike a Grand Jury, Trump has people inside the room seeing the evidence against him.
We also have a novel argument being advanced by Matt Whitaker, toilet salesman for people who large genitalia and former acting AG. His argument was that "abuse of power was not a crime." This goes back to the argument that there is no crime called "collusion" but rather conspiracy. Of course, while Trump HAS committed crimes in the Ukraine scandal (campaign finance crimes especially, emoluments more generally), abuse of power is not listed in the US criminal code. As counterargument: who cares? Abuse of power is EXACTLY what impeachment is for.
The target date for wrapping up the impeachment process was Thanksgiving. This was likely done to prevent the Senate trial from bleeding over into an election year. If the next month is as bad for the president and the GOP as this past month has been, I don't know how much longer they can keep moving the goalposts to protect him.
Tuesday, October 22, 2019
Corruption All The Way Down
This summary of the latest revelations about Giuliani's complete skeeviness when it comes to representing bad actors is pretty damning. Basically, Giuliani (and therefore Trump) were involved with all sorts of shady criminals coming out of the former Soviet Union.
The problem is that the deeper the corruption goes, the harder it is to follow. I consider myself a reasonably capable person, when it comes to understanding complicated stories, but after a certain point, the details bleed into each other and make it hard to understand exactly which oligarch extracted what favor from which Trump official. This complexity is the wedge that Fox News will be able to use to cast doubts on the charges and impugn the investigation.
That's why the "quid pro quo" is so important. It's simple. The tangled web of Trump's connections with Ukraine and Russia is complicated. It would be really nice if we could hear some tapes of Trump's conversations with some of these people.
The problem is that the deeper the corruption goes, the harder it is to follow. I consider myself a reasonably capable person, when it comes to understanding complicated stories, but after a certain point, the details bleed into each other and make it hard to understand exactly which oligarch extracted what favor from which Trump official. This complexity is the wedge that Fox News will be able to use to cast doubts on the charges and impugn the investigation.
That's why the "quid pro quo" is so important. It's simple. The tangled web of Trump's connections with Ukraine and Russia is complicated. It would be really nice if we could hear some tapes of Trump's conversations with some of these people.
Monday, October 21, 2019
Sunday, October 20, 2019
"You're Fired!"
While I am not supporting Biden at all in the primaries, I thought he had one of the better attack lines back in 2016. In talking about how Trump got famous through reality TV, Biden wondered how anyone could gleefully express the line "You're fired."
Trump has, sadly, governed very much as his reality TV character. The louche vulgarian has churned through staff at a truly astonishing rate. The only remaining members of his original Cabinet are two people too confused to know what's going on (Carson and DeVos), Mnuchin and Sonny Perdue. Dunno, maybe I'm missing someone who has held on, but I think we are the Nat Sec adviser #4, Chief of Staff #3 and God knows who else. Is there even a White House Press Secretary anymore?
Anyway, it turns out Trump was going to fire Mick Mulvaney who holds half the jobs in the White House. "Luckily" for Mulvaney, his role as a co-conspirator has saved his job.
These freaking people...
Trump has, sadly, governed very much as his reality TV character. The louche vulgarian has churned through staff at a truly astonishing rate. The only remaining members of his original Cabinet are two people too confused to know what's going on (Carson and DeVos), Mnuchin and Sonny Perdue. Dunno, maybe I'm missing someone who has held on, but I think we are the Nat Sec adviser #4, Chief of Staff #3 and God knows who else. Is there even a White House Press Secretary anymore?
Anyway, it turns out Trump was going to fire Mick Mulvaney who holds half the jobs in the White House. "Luckily" for Mulvaney, his role as a co-conspirator has saved his job.
These freaking people...
Saturday, October 19, 2019
In The Open
Jon Chait engages in a bit of "nut picking" when he singles out a Federalist essay supporting Trump's brazenly corrupt decision to host the G-7 at one of his resorts. The word "emolument" has been thrown around a lot since January 2017, because Trump has failed to do two things: divulge his financial records and divest from his business interests. The slogan "Jimmy Carter sold his peanut farm" is fundamentally about the usual standards presidents apply to the separation between their previous business interests and the interests of the American people as filtered through the office of the presidency.
The Federalist is a hack website, as Chait calls it "the Trumpiest of Trumpsites." But this is yet ANOTHER litmus test for Congressional Republicans. This decision is so brazenly corrupt that it requires a response. And there is plenty of time ahead of this decision to generate a response. Congress could easily pass a bill that upheld the idea that the President should not profit of his presidency and in a sane world it would pass with veto proof majorities. The fact that it won't is a sterling example of how the GOP has become a congregation of lickspittles kowtowing to Trump's most erratic impulses.
If Congressional Republicans are indeed sick of Trump's act, as whispers suggest, here is an example to curtail his lawless disregard for the office of the presidency. It does not involve impeachment. It simply stops an action that cannot be justified on any grounds based on precedent or law. But we all know that the GOP won't do shit.
The Federalist is a hack website, as Chait calls it "the Trumpiest of Trumpsites." But this is yet ANOTHER litmus test for Congressional Republicans. This decision is so brazenly corrupt that it requires a response. And there is plenty of time ahead of this decision to generate a response. Congress could easily pass a bill that upheld the idea that the President should not profit of his presidency and in a sane world it would pass with veto proof majorities. The fact that it won't is a sterling example of how the GOP has become a congregation of lickspittles kowtowing to Trump's most erratic impulses.
If Congressional Republicans are indeed sick of Trump's act, as whispers suggest, here is an example to curtail his lawless disregard for the office of the presidency. It does not involve impeachment. It simply stops an action that cannot be justified on any grounds based on precedent or law. But we all know that the GOP won't do shit.
Friday, October 18, 2019
In The End, Will They Care?
The rule of thumb in Trumpistan is that the scandal will unfold like this:
1) Trump is accused of doing something horrible.
2) Trump denies it.
3) The GOP expresses "concern."
4) The details come out and they are really bad.
5) Justifications are advanced that "everyone does this."
6) The GOP moves on and Democrats are left wondering what the hell is going on in America.
The Ukraine scandal is a little different, in that #1 was created by the whistleblower first, but most of this crap happens in public view.
The Turkey scandal feels a little different. Republicans have shown a repeated ability to be unconcerned with wrong-doing among their political allies. (see Kavanaugh, Brett) But Trump's behavior in Turkey does appear to be beyond the Pale. There is no "everyone does it" defense. This makes Munich look like the Battle of Thermopylae.
Everyone is waiting for the GOP Senate to break with this guy. Any normal presidency would have ended already.
I just don't know if anything makes a difference with the Republican party right now.
1) Trump is accused of doing something horrible.
2) Trump denies it.
3) The GOP expresses "concern."
4) The details come out and they are really bad.
5) Justifications are advanced that "everyone does this."
6) The GOP moves on and Democrats are left wondering what the hell is going on in America.
The Ukraine scandal is a little different, in that #1 was created by the whistleblower first, but most of this crap happens in public view.
The Turkey scandal feels a little different. Republicans have shown a repeated ability to be unconcerned with wrong-doing among their political allies. (see Kavanaugh, Brett) But Trump's behavior in Turkey does appear to be beyond the Pale. There is no "everyone does it" defense. This makes Munich look like the Battle of Thermopylae.
Everyone is waiting for the GOP Senate to break with this guy. Any normal presidency would have ended already.
I just don't know if anything makes a difference with the Republican party right now.
Thursday, October 17, 2019
Broken Free Of The Zookeepers
Trump's increasingly blundering moves, especially on PR stunts like the Erdogan letter, the Pelosi picture and ambushing grieving British parents, suggest that there were actually some people in the White House controlling his more erratic and crass impulses. They are quitting and we are only going to see more and more of this raging bullshit from the Oval Office.
Medicare For All
I agree with Martin Longman here. The politics of Warren and Sanders' plans for a quick move to single-payer aren't great. We've tried that time and time again, Teddy and Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman, Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton...they all swung for the fences on health care (well, during Nixon's tenure it was Teddy Kennedy who was swinging for the downs).
Lyndon Johnson and Barack Obama are the only two presidents to make significant headway on reforming our health insurance regimen. They did so by passing the best bill they could and then trying to implement it in a way that insured its popularity.
During the debate, Warren was pressed on whether her plan would raise taxes. That's a disingenuous line of attack, because it forces her into the following explanation: "Yes, your taxes go up, but your premiums go down, and if you have employer based insurance, your premiums are largely invisible to you. Plus, if there IS a difference between you premium and the new tax, your employer is likely to pocket it." An explanation like that is honest, but too nuanced for our Stupid Politics.
A better and more realistic question for both Bernie and Warren is this: Will you sign ANY bill that can pass the House and Senate, even if it doesn't achieve your stated goals? That will tell me more about them than a complicated explication of health care funding.
Lyndon Johnson and Barack Obama are the only two presidents to make significant headway on reforming our health insurance regimen. They did so by passing the best bill they could and then trying to implement it in a way that insured its popularity.
During the debate, Warren was pressed on whether her plan would raise taxes. That's a disingenuous line of attack, because it forces her into the following explanation: "Yes, your taxes go up, but your premiums go down, and if you have employer based insurance, your premiums are largely invisible to you. Plus, if there IS a difference between you premium and the new tax, your employer is likely to pocket it." An explanation like that is honest, but too nuanced for our Stupid Politics.
A better and more realistic question for both Bernie and Warren is this: Will you sign ANY bill that can pass the House and Senate, even if it doesn't achieve your stated goals? That will tell me more about them than a complicated explication of health care funding.
Wednesday, October 16, 2019
All Crimes, All The Time
The Trump tax return story has largely faded from view, as Trump has managed to delay the release of his tax returns through obstruction and law suits.
However, it looks like some documents are starting to leak out and SURPRISE! Trump was committing fraud.
However, it looks like some documents are starting to leak out and SURPRISE! Trump was committing fraud.
Tuesday, October 15, 2019
Bolton
There's been a lot of agita on Left Twitter about accepting John Bolton as an ally in the fight against Trump. For some reason, there are those who think we need only allies who are pure in their past and their motives. That is ridiculous.
There are a few Never Trumpers who mean it. And there were some Never Trumpers who moved back into his orbit but have since spun out again in the wake of the Ukraine scandal and the Syrian debacle. Yes, Bolton is not your friend. Neither is Kristol or Walsh or Kasich.
But the disagreements with those guys are primarily about what policies to enact. They are inherently ideological and political. Trump's rank corruption threatens the fabric of our constitutional democracy. Simply beating him in the next election is insufficient. He must be destroyed and his political brand with him. It's not enough to purge Trump from the Oval Office, we need to purge Trumpism from our politics.
And sometimes that means working with odious war criminals like John Bolton.
There are a few Never Trumpers who mean it. And there were some Never Trumpers who moved back into his orbit but have since spun out again in the wake of the Ukraine scandal and the Syrian debacle. Yes, Bolton is not your friend. Neither is Kristol or Walsh or Kasich.
But the disagreements with those guys are primarily about what policies to enact. They are inherently ideological and political. Trump's rank corruption threatens the fabric of our constitutional democracy. Simply beating him in the next election is insufficient. He must be destroyed and his political brand with him. It's not enough to purge Trump from the Oval Office, we need to purge Trumpism from our politics.
And sometimes that means working with odious war criminals like John Bolton.
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