Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Saturday, August 31, 2024

Pennsylvania

 If the race is close, and the data are kind of all over the place at the moment, then Pennsylvania is likely the tipping point state. Harris and Democrats are polling pretty well in Wisconsin and Michigan right now, with PA being the weakest of the three Blue Wall states. Josh Marshall shares a correspondence from someone in Trump Country in PA that despairs about the state of the race there.

The writer notes that there seems to be waning enthusiasm for Trump, in the sense of fewer yard signs and flags. This goes to the argument that we've been living in Trumpistan for nine years now, with this guy dominating our discourse. Yet his act really is tired and repetitive. 

Which brings me to my point of optimism going back to when Biden was the candidate. Who has looked at America since November 2020 and decided that even though they voted for Biden in 2020, they want to vote for Trump in 2024? Who looks at January 6th and Dobbs and wants more of that? Who looks at the Arlington travesty and wants more of that?

I have no doubt that Cult 45 is still devoted to this asshole. The question is: Who wants to join that cult who isn't already in it? Where are the new Trump voters? Because there are new Harris voters.

The Harris decision to focus on "We're not going back" and "weird" is playing on exactly this dynamic. Harris needs to win every Biden vote and every Lean Republican voter who was sickened by January 6th. She needs to get the pro-choice voters in places like North Carolina and Florida to the polls. Her decision to campaign in rural Georgia is an interesting sign that she very much wants to soften Trump's support among groups that remain hostile to Putin and authoritarianism.

So, I do think Harris can and will mobilize voters in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh - and their suburbs - but also I do wonder if turnout in those exurban Trump strongholds might be depressed a bit. Even Biden did much better when "likely voter" screens were used. 

He's exhausting. Aren't we ready to move on?

Friday, August 30, 2024

State Of The Race

 Paul Campos dropped a "state of the race" post yesterday that incorporated a high quality poll that showed Harris up five points nationally. He than cautioned that Trump has always outperformed is polling, whereas Republicans in general have underperformed. It's weird, but we see it in a lot of Senate polling where Harris and Trump are effectively tied, as in Nevada and Arizona, but the Democratic Senate candidates are holding pretty comfortable leads.

However - and this maybe be hopium - but pollsters have been burned badly (2016) and mildly (2020) by underestimating Trump's support. They really, really don't want to do that again. 

The question becomes:

- Is Trump outperforming other Republicans by significant margins? 
- Are pollsters weighting pro-Trump numbers to avoid their previous mistakes?

I'm struggling to conceive of a Trump-Rosen voter in Nevada. Or a Trump-Gallego voter in Arizona. I know they exist, but in those numbers? 

Campos concludes by noting that Democratic get-out-the-vote efforts were hampered by the pandemic in 2020. That's not an issue this time, and the Democrats are heavily invested in GOTV efforts whereas Trump is siphoning off Republican fundraising for purposes that are probably illegal.

I'd rather be us than them.

Thursday, August 29, 2024

At Least Merrick Garland Is On the Case

 Trump's illegal campaign appearance at Arlington Cemetery is beginning to gather some heat. However, the issue as always with Trump is that he does so many damned things that are disqualifying that focusing on one event can be perilous. Still, this grotesque violation of Arlington is of a piece with his earlier comments - both on the record and recounted by others - that disparage veterans.

The problem at the moment is that the cemetery official is not pressing charges for the assault aspect, because she fears (not unreasonably) violent retaliation from Trumpist. That right there is its OWN story worth a million column inches. 

However, Trump's appearance in Arlington to cut an advertisement which he has already posted online seems like its own felony violation. That we have to wait on the sclerotic Merrick Garland to press charges - likely until after the election - is another way in which Trump demolishes the old guardrails. 

Wednesday, August 28, 2024

Does Anything Matter Anymore?

 The latest "Thing That Trump Did That Would End Any Other Politician" is filming a campaign video in freaking Arlington Cemetery. The Times, of course, does not currently have the story on their front page. The Post does. The video and pictures were taking in Section 60, which is off limits for political posturing. What's more, there are reports from NPR that Trump campaign officials were physical with officials at Arlington who were trying to enforce the...you know...law.

Here's a graph from the Post:

But Trump campaign communications director Steven Cheung said that “there was no physical altercation as described,” that the campaign was given permission to bring a photographer and that it is “prepared to release footage” to defend against “defamatory claims.”

Cheung also claimed, without providing evidence or details, that “an unnamed individual, clearly suffering from a mental health episode, decided to physically block members of President Trump’s team during a very solemn ceremony.”

So, first of all, the Trump campaign doesn't spin things, they outright lie. Here's a statement:

“Federal law prohibits political campaign or election-related activities within Army National Military Cemeteries, to include photographers, content creators or any other persons attending for purposes, or in direct support of a partisan political candidate’s campaign,” the cemetery’s statement said. “Arlington National Cemetery reinforced and widely shared this law and its prohibitions with all participants.”

This is pretty much backed up by the Trump campaigns own videos of the events. This is shortly after saying that Medal of Freedom recipients are better than Medal of Honor recipients, because they are better looking without wounds and shit.

I swear to Dog, in a sane world, Harris would not only be up in Texas and Florida, she'd be winning Idaho.

Tuesday, August 27, 2024

The Other Great Sorting

 The Great Sort is the sociological argument that Americans have largely separated themselves into different geographic camps. This - like so many arguments like it - is so grossly overstated as to be effectively meaningless. I live in Connecticut, an indigo blue state. My town is Trumpy as hell, but that means he will get 66% of the vote. What does that say about the third of residents who will vote for Harris? Do we not exist?

There is, however, another form of Great Sorting, which goes back to the 1980s and '90s. The two parties became more ideologically coherent. When LBJ passed the Voting Rights Act, he did some with real support from Republicans who thought it was an important bill. That sort of action is pretty rare these days. Biden was able to get a few bills through on infrastructure, but the idea that it would require great skill to shepherd an infrastructure bill through Congress would have struck Richard Nixon as insane. (All of this further augments the argument that Newt Gingrich and Mitch McConnell's Zero Sum approach to partisan politics is what has broken this country.)

What I think we are also seeing is another Great Sorting around principles: those who have them and those that don't. This isn't about voters, but political elites. Look no further than RFK, Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard. A credulous press will present them as Democrats-turned-Trumpists, but really they are just grifters who have some loosely held beliefs - RFK has some environmental beliefs, I guess, and Gabbard seems to love Hindutva. 

Their endorsements of Trump are - or at least ought to be - completely unsurprising. They have no real allegiance to the Democratic Party. Kennedy was born into it, and Gabbard was from Hawaii which is basically a one party state. They are (in Kennedy's case was) photogenic with the superficiality of those whose appeal is largely superficial. 

Trumpistan is a swamp of grifters, led by the Grifter in Chief himself. Trump hawks ugly sneakers, ridiculous merch and the ubiquitous flags. I drove across a Trumpy part of the state today and saw some flags (and RFK signs that were still up). Since when have candidates for office had flags? Why is that a thing? Clearly, it's to "pledge allegiance" to the figure. Plus, you can sell them.

In its purest expression, Trumpism is about the shallow salesman from Queens still trying to slap fake gold on a thing and call it awesome. The movement of people like Gabbard and Kennedy is a natural extension of that.

Now, if the Harris campaign had the ability, getting a video endorsement from George W. Bush might actually mean something.

Monday, August 26, 2024

Home Sweet Home

 Nothing like coming home from a long vacation and finding your ceiling collapsed from a water leak.

Saturday, August 24, 2024

RFK, Jr

 From the jump, it was apparent that Kennedy's vanity campaign was being underwritten by GOP ratfuckers. Money and infrastructure are some of what keep third party campaigns on the margins - mostly it's the fact that they are vanity campaigns or ratfucking, but whatever. Kennedy relied on GOP Daddies to fund him and keep him relevant. The fact that this guy is a brain damaged freak saw his margins sink. Harris's emergence made him further irrelevant. 

His decision to drop out and endorse Trump is not likely to make a huge difference, but it's not nothing. Kennedy was a refuge for Never Trump Boomers and nihilistic Edgelords. The idea that his endorsement could matter with that group of malcontents seems dubious. What's more, the never ending drip of outright sociopathic behavior by Kennedy alienated a lot of people - except for those Edgelords.

It has been pretty clear that Kennedy was hurting Trump more than Harris - that's why he dropped out and endorsed Trump. He was always Trump-adjacent. Are there a bunch of voters who are going to become Trumpists because he dropped out? I'm skeptical.

However, it remains a close election, and if some of those Kennedy voters decide to hold their noses and vote for Trump that could matter. On the other hand, the Kennedy-Down Ticket Republican voter might just stay home. 

We can hope.

It's just foolish to make assumptions based on past elections, given the nature of this topsy-turvy race.

Friday, August 23, 2024

The Challenger

 Both Jon Chait and Josh Marshall note that perhaps the singular accomplishment of the Harris campaign over the last month has been to frame Donald Trump as the incumbent and herself as the challenger. This is smart in myriad ways. First, there has been a lot of anti-incumbent mood across the developed democracies since Covid. That sucked and people have been punishing the party in charge during that period. Of course, Trump was in charge for the worst of it, but people had largely memory-holed that, blaming Biden for the slow reopening of 2021 and the global inflation that followed.

Harris's ability to make Trump the incumbent - "We aren't going back" - both reminds people of how chaotic life was under Trump and allows her to focus on HIS decisions during Covid. The very fact that he had been president, was rejected and now wants to return does give him the stink of old news. Only Biden's own status as the incumbent and even older news shielded Trump from that reality. That's why he's apoplectic over Biden dropping out: running against Biden is his only shot at NOT being the incumbent.

Both Marshall and Chait, however, tend to gloss over a key dynamic, even deride it. It absolutely matters that the person setting herself up as the challenger is a woman of color. Most undecided voters are pretty damned shallow. They are not thoughtful people, at least when it comes to politics. If they were rigorous in their thinking, they wouldn't be undecided. Harris - as a woman, as a person of color, as the child of immigrants - is very much NOT an insider. Hillary Clinton was. Joe Biden is. And now Donald Trump is, too. Yes, Harris is Vice President, but precisely because she is not an Old White Dude, she feels like an outsider. That was actually a key to Obama winning states like Indiana in 2008. 

Because she is who she is, this allowed her to focus her campaign message around somewhat conservative tropes like patriotism and border security. Walz helps with this, and reflects that strategy, but she does not have to do the heavy lifting of distancing herself from some past precedents (unburdened by what has been). It's right there in her bio in ways that it wasn't for someone like Hillary Clinton. Wrapping herself in the flag becomes the message about inclusion, whereas when Trump does it, it feels like a shield he wraps around himself.

There is likely to be some weird assed polling about to drop. RFK, Jr. is taking his brain worm and his dead bear cub home with him, as he sulks about not being able to throw the election to Trump. The DNC was a smash hit. There should be a bounce. (There was a panel of those dipshit undecideds and 7 of 8 said they were now ready to vote for Harris.) Kennedy dropping out could help Trump. I saw one poll that had Harris up 8 nationally, another up 6 and another had it tied.

Now the next beat is the debate. I think Harris largely cleans the floor with Trump. She's a lawyer without a speech impediment. Trump's public appearances are a mix between low-energy whomp whomp and the usually whine whine.

There is a long way to go, but the Harris campaign has done it all right so far. I think America is ready to put this malevolent orange cancer behind us.

Excelsior!

She Nailed It

 Harris's acceptance speech last night was very good. Jake Tapper and Jon Chait - who have been skeptical of Harris - were comparing it to Obama's 2008 speech. A lot has been written about how she has escaped the various boxes that the 2020 election cycle seemed to force her into. It was a very clear and prosecutorial case against Trump and for her candidacy. The debate could be spicy!

The whole week was a great demonstration of the campaign's themes and the importance of the principles the Democratic Party adheres to. The "deep bench" means that the truism that "personnel is policy" is in good hands with Harris and Democrats. 

I've always been worried about the subconscious way we code leadership as male and that Harris would fall victim to the implicit sexism that lurks below the surface of men and women. Her incredibly strong section on foreign and defense policy was really good at addressing those concerns without being explicit about it. 

The concluding remarks did, I confess, give me some goosebumps. The patriotic tone she and others struck was perfect. 10 out of 10, not notes. She's ready, we're ready. Let's get'er done.

Thursday, August 22, 2024

I Absolutely Lost It

 I'm sitting here hours later with my eyes swollen from the ugly crying I did last night over Tim Walz's son, Gus. Gus has some learning differences that I've seen in young people before. Our son has some LD issues, and he went to a school with a lot of kids like Gus. When Gus teared up over his dad and said "That's my dad!" Shit, I'm tearing up again.

I admit to not knowing who this guy was 6 weeks ago. When Biden dropped out, Walz suddenly blossomed with the "weird" line of attack, but there was also something about him that just resonated with me. Having your 17 year old son weepily and proudly boast about you on national television is the single greatest endorsement of a politician I've ever seen. He's the real deal, because there's no faking it with kids like Gus Walz.

Wednesday, August 21, 2024

Is Obama Right?

 Jon Chait has been beating the drum against the illiberal left for a while now, so he naturally jumped at Obama's rhetoric last night that we need to stop "canceling" each other. The broader text of both Obama's speeches last night was not an embrace of Trumpists, but rather an argument that most of the people who vote for Trump are redeemable.

I think that's at least somewhat true, because tens of millions of people voted for him. There are many who have been mainlining the fabricated bile of Fox News and its less subtle progeny for years. They believe things that are demonstrably false. Presumably if there was no Fox News, then they might be open to reason and persuasion. Certainly there are a lot of former Republicans right now; several are speaking in Chicago this week.

However, it's worth noting that Fox News does exist. Of those tens of millions who support Trump, many of them drink deeply and with great relish from the river of hate and division that he spews forth. The worst part of Trumpism is finding out how many of our countrymen are hateful people. 

Maybe...maybe this fall, Trump's support collapses to about 40%, and we can move on from him. Certainly, you can't look at the energy and joy that Harris and Walz are bringing to the campaign trail and compare that to the absolute spent force that is Trump. His appearance yesterday in Michigan to rant falsely about crime was so lackluster I almost felt like Trump could have cried, if he was capable of that emotion.

There are, I hope, millions of Trump voters who are not necessarily Trump supporters. Maybe people like Adam Kinziger can tilt them to vote Democratic just this once. Frankly, I had hopes that George Bush would say something, but he's been an intellectual coward his whole life, so being a moral coward in this moment isn't shocking.

I don't know how salvageable some of this country is. I really don't. But some are, and if we can woo them this fall, that would be important to the future civic health of this country.

Tuesday, August 20, 2024

Day One

 If there was a difference between the RNC and the DNC that could be summed up in a short video clip, it might be Hulk Hogan tearing off his shirt at the RNC and the Beyoncé-themed long form ad that played last night in Chicago. Trump's energy is that of fake wrestling, a fraud of a sport for a fraud of a man, spectacle without substance. That ad was unabashedly patriotic while remaining true to American values. 

I simply don't like watching political speeches. In the year of our Lord 2024, I don't have to. It's like baseball, I'd rather watch the highlights online than sit through the whole game. The highlights from last night were electric. Especially moving were the people who have struggled with the impact of the Dobbs decision and the four minute ovation for Joe Biden.  There were great stemwinders by rising stars like Rafael Warnock and AOC. There was a well-deserved recognition of Hillary Clinton's role in making this moment (hopefully) possible. It was great!

Of course, the media couldn't help but repeatedly beclown themselves. They complained that Biden's speech was going to be too late, as if it was still 1988 and people wouldn't be accessing it online today. They complained about the wi-fi. Their fact checking was a parody of the idea of fact checking. Actually, their fact checking showed how Trump's consistent incoherence feeds into the press's inability to cover him properly.

I loved the reception Biden got and deserved. There was a lot of Dark Brandon energy that was great. However, it's pretty clear he is struggling with his speech impediment. That is not at all a knock on his performance as president, which has been excellent. However, that speech - the love that he got and the way it was delivered - does reinforce the rectitude of his decision to drop out. Again, if Harris can close the deal, Biden's stature will rise from this act that had to pain him greatly, but was the right thing for his party and his legacy.

Not sure how they top it over the next few nights. Taylor Swift and Beyoncé together?

Monday, August 19, 2024

Pundit's Fallacy, Part 624,922

 I've enjoyed subscribing to Matthew Yglesias' substack, because he talks about things from a different perspective, even if he can get seriously wedded to his priors. Today is a good example of that. 

Some of it is the incessant need any writer needs to hedge their bets after 2016. Harris pretty clearly has a measurable lead in the polls, but the polls were off by enough in 2016 and 2020 to make people legitimately skittish about making predictions about November. Of course, there is the second caveat which is that Democrats have been more robust in turning out their voters, especially in off-year elections. If Trump remains unpopular - and I think the debate will drop him down a bit more - then there will simply be some of the old Trumpist coalition who sit this one out.

Where Yglesias really falls into his own navel is in advancing the typical fallacy of "If the candidate does everything I suggest, they will be doing better." This is a weird take, because much of the column if him admitting that Harris has pretty much nailed the first month of her campaign. She's sewed up the party's support; she's raised a boatload of money and spent it well; she's expanded the battleground map; she's seemingly won the war over defining herself and her opponent.

The primary data point that he uses to argue that she's not doing well enough is betting markets. His argument is that bettors are smarter with their money, which is news to anyone who's been to Vegas. What's more, those betting markets are reflecting the fact that the convention and debates haven't happened yet. What if Harris absolutely crashes in her debate? If you had her as 70% odds to win the election, you might take a bath. Much like the "Likely Voter" screens in polling, the closer you get to the election, the more solidified predictions will become. 

Finally, he argues that Harris is not arguing for the suite of policies that he wants, so she must be running a bad campaign. His current hobbyhorse is reducing the deficit, which isn't a terrible policy idea, but is not great politics in this moment. 

I warned that the press would treat Harris' policy proposals differently than Trump's, and that's largely been true. However, we've seen quite a few takes like Josh Barro or Jon Chait, who looked at the pre-speech version of her plan and said it was bad policy but likely good politics. Then the speech came out, it wasn't "price controls" but anti-monopoly, they left the pieces up, but at least they conceded that her politics were smart in taking on corporate greed.

The reality is that every election is about vibes. If you want you can call them fundamentals, but really they are about how the Mushy Middle sees the current state of things and whether they blame the candidate who most represents the status quo. Trump, in many ways, is running as the incumbent - at least from a vibes point of view. Harris has framed her campaign as a forward looking effort to improve people's lives. Yglesias concedes this point - but this is really the whole shebang. 

Only political junkies really care about the policy white papers. When you look at a candidate, the most important thing to look at is principles. What do they care about and who do they care for? We know the answer when it comes to Trump: he care about himself and the people who genuflect before him. Harris and the Democrats will spend this week hammering the message about how they care about middle class families. That's the way to win elections.



Sunday, August 18, 2024

Trump Blows The Foghorn

 The concept of racial "dog whistles" goes back to Lee Atwater's famous formulation of how once you could throw the N-word around, but now you have to talk about crime and busing and things like that. Ronald Reagan was a practitioner of these dark arts, as when he spoke of Welfare Queens in Cadillacs and launched his campaign in Philadelphia, Mississippi talking about states' rights. 

The corrosive effect of Trumpism is that what had been reduced to subtly coded appeals to racism have become blaring foghorns. Now we have a perfect example: Trump is going to have a rally about crime in Howell, Michigan. 

Howell was a center of the KKK for a long time and just last month there was a march where they chanted "We love Hitler; we love Trump." 

I mean...c'mon.

Josh Marshall and others have pointed out the very obvious racism of this moment, but - once again - I am left to wonder how capable today's "journalists" are at reporting the bald truth staring them in the face. This should be all over the news until it either leaves a mark or he cancels the event that was no doubt planned by the many Nazis and Nazi-adjacent people he has working for him.

Saturday, August 17, 2024

John Marshall Harlan

 I've just finished reading a wonderful biography of Supreme Court Justice John Marshall Harlan. For those of you who aren't History Nerds, Harlan was a Justice from 1877 to 1911. During that time, the former slave owner from Kentucky became the staunchest defender of civil rights on the Court and known for his blistering dissents - many of which are now the understood law of the land. Harlan had a remarkable sense of being on the Right Side Of History. A few of his dissents:

- Plessy v Ferguson. His most famous dissent today, it was largely ignored at the time. He alone on the court argued that the XIVth Amendment actually did what it said it was going to do. He argued that the Constitution and the rights enshrined therein were "color blind" in the sense that "separate but equal" was blatantly contrary to the XIVth. His dissent was the backbone of the argument in Brown v Board of Education.

- The Civil Rights Cases. Prior to Plessy, Harlan was also the sole dissenter in a basket of cases where the majority allowed private entities to discriminate on the basis of race. Again, Harlan's interpretation of the XIVth in this case is the standard used by all civil right's law today.

- Pollack v Farmer's Loan and Trust. Pollack was a case over the constitutionality of an income tax. Harlan was one of four justices who adhered to almost a century of precedent on taxation that allowed the federal government to levy an income tax. Pollack was almost universally reviled within a few decades, but it led to the XVIth Amendment explicitly authorizing an income tax.

- United States v E.C. Knight & Co.  Here, again, the Court effectively overruled Congress' authority as established in the Sherman Antitrust Act. Harlan was the lone dissenter who argued that Congress had the power to regulate monopolies.

- The Insular Cases. After the Spanish War and the acquisition of an overseas empire, the question became whether or not the peoples of Hawaii, Puerto Rico and the Philippines had constitutional rights. Harlan was in the minority - often alone again - arguing that the "constitution followed the flag."

- Giles v Harris. Harlan was one of three judges to dissent from a ruling that allowed grandfather clauses and other mechanisms to restrict Black suffrage.

- Lochner v New York. Harlan was one of four judges in the minority who felt that New York could established maximum hours for bakers. Lochner was a stain on the judiciary for decades though the logic behind Lochner and Knight has been adopted by the Roberts Court in overturning Chevron deference. 

Two things that stand out. The first is that the Fuller Court on which Harlan served most of his term was the worst Court in history - even worse than the current Court which seems to take many of its cues from the majority of the Fuller Court. The second is that even in a time of profound racism and exploitation of workers of all races, there were still actually White men - Southern White men no less - willing to stand up for justice and fairness. Harlan has to be one of the top 3-4 Justices in the history of the Court because he alone for his time stood consistently on the side of the angels.

In my judgment, Harlan was the most important White figure from Lincoln until Lyndon Johnson when it came for civil rights. His arguments - lonely as the were - formed the basis for the "rights revolution" that occurred under the Warren Court. Towards the end of the biography, though, the author noted that Harlan's phrase a "color blind Constitution" has been used to roll back programs like Affirmative Action. 

What's more, because Harlan hewed closely to the actual language of the Reconstruction Amendments, people like Antonin Scalia have cited him as "thoroughly originalist." Since "originalism" is a stalking horse for destroying the New Deal and Great Society, that's stretching the idea pretty damned far. One thing Harlan felt strongly about was that the Court should defer to Congress unless the Constitution was clearly being violated. 

Of all fucking people, Neil Gorsuch at his confirmation hearing said, "Justice Harlan got the original meaning of the Equal Protection Clause right the first time, and the court recognized that belatedly. It is one of the great stains on the Supreme Court's history that it took so long to get to that conclusion." Once on the bench, Gorsuch has largely ignored Harlan's thinking.

The Lochner case from which Harlan dissented was used to strike down many of the early New Deal programs. This caused Franklin Roosevelt to try and pack the court to replace the hidebound old justices who deferred to Lochner. In the end, the Court bent to the necessities of the moment and FDR was able to appoint enough justices who could see beyond the blinkered plutocracy of the Fuller Court.

If Harris wins, there is a chance that she might be able to either change the composition of the Court or replace some of the older justices like Alito and Thomas - two men wedded to the Fuller Court's ignominious ideas. Whatever happens, Dobbs, the presidential immunity ruling and the overturning of Chevron have destroying the legitimacy of the Court in much the same way Lochner did and eventually Plessy was seen to do. 

Hopefully, Sotomayor and Jackson are not modern day Harlan's issuing dissents against a lawless and unjust Court until one day their vision is able to carry the day.