Did Trump and the various entities around him finally bring the Gaza war to a close? We have to concede he might have, even if the durability of this peace seems doubtful. As Marshall laid out, Trump's uniquely close relationships with both the Gulf State emirs and Netanyahu mean he probably had the right levers to work. Marshall:
“Credit” is a funny word. Do I give Trump credit for this? I’d say this. Because of those relationships, Trump is in a unique position to do this. Only he can force the hands of both groups, to the extent they need to be forced. He can do it. He is doing it. And I’m glad he’s doing it.
That doesn't mean the conflict is over, really. The culminating solution is that there is a Palestinian state. It's actually in the plan, but while Netanyahu might agree to this in Washington, I struggle to see him agreeing in Tel Aviv.
This is a great first step, and it at least ends this episode of the cycle of violence that is self-reinforcing.
But get back to me in a year.
UPDATE: This also feels important from Robert Farley: The reason we have a peace deal today and not in 2024 or even January of this year is that Israel has largely accomplished its goals. Yes, Trump had latitude that Biden did not, given the above-referenced closeness between Trump and Netanyahu. But Trump also greenlit even great barbarism by the IDF that created the close to total victory for Israel. This agreement is a real capitulation by Hamas, because Gaza has been flattened completely. There is no "Gaza" left.
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