Got An Awesome New Hat

Niagara

Took the things to the Anchor Bar in Buffalo for the original wings and then to Niagara.  I think it was a major success.  The sheer volume of water had an effect on them.

An astounding number of Indians there.  I guess it beats the muddy Ganges.

Today In Cooperstown

I have taken the Things on a road trip.

Today we went to Cooperstown and visited the Fenimore Cooper Art Gallery Baseball Hall of Fame.  At the beginning, they have a hokey video about baseball, but it ends with singing "Take Me Out To The Ballgame".  I got weirdly choked up, especially when I saw Thing One, who is not especially interested in baseball, singing along.

Museums are tough with boys under the age of 10 15 20 25, even when it's baseball.  But they hung in there.  Probably the highlights were the "bloody sock" of Curt Schilling and the "Who's On First" video with Abbott and Costello.  After awhile they just can't focus on stuff.

We threw for a radar gun and I managed to beat the old fart's record for the day, but by the end I couldn't feel my hand.  That's not good, right?

Thing Two threw up early in the trip, so I pulled him up to the front seat with me, operating on the principle that sick kids should be treated like an adult, whereas sick adults should be treated like kids.

Tomorrow we head to Niagara Falls.  If it goes poorly, maybe I try the barrel.

The Lost Decade

Back when the economy tanked in 2008-9, economists like Krugzilla were noting that an inadequate response to this crisis could lead to a "lost decade" like Japan suffered through.  Low, sluggish growth and relatively high unemployment became "the new normal".

One of the threats Krugman talked about was inadequate Fed policy.  The Japanese central bank made very poor decisions during their decade of poor growth.  Luckily, our central bank has been proactive and staved off utter collapse and stagnation.  It has been the ECB that has screwed everything up for all of us.

Nevertheless we are stuck in a slow economy.  It's not as bad as the '08-09 cycle, but it's not good.

One question is whether or not people are beginning to assume that this really is "the new normal".  People have assumed that Obama is outperforming the employment numbers because of a combination of people still blaming Bush, his personal popularity and Mitt's personal unpopularity.

But it may also be that people have simply internalized a diminished state of the economy.

Purely conjecture, but you have to wonder.

Now THAT'S A Resignation Letter

http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/07/mccotter-resigns-from-the-house-after-month-of-calumnies-indignities-and-deceits.php?ref=fpblg

Also, too:

http://tbogg.firedoglake.com/2012/07/06/the-malaisey-days-of-summer/

This about sums up what I'm feeling about blogging (absent the daughter in grad school).

A Job Well Done

Finished my workshop, which went well.  Great group of teachers to work with.

Headed to pick up the Things and take them to Cooperstown on Monday to genuflect before the Bloody Sock, apparently.  Then off to Niagara Falls.

So, one job ended, another starts.

John Marshall Harlan the First

As part of my teacher's workshop on research based writing, I have my students/co-teachers do a research project to re-discover the pains and joys and pitfalls of research.  I join in in the spirit of camaraderie and also to refresh my own memory.

I've been researching John Marshall Harlan, the great dissenter of the Gilded Age, most famous for his dissents in Plessy and the Civil Rights cases.

Harlan was born into a slave holding family, but fought with the Union against secession.  Still, he opposed the Emancipation Proclamation.  The travesties of Klan rule after the war, however, turned him into perhaps the 19th century's pre-eminent defender of the rights of African Americans.

How did a former slave-holder and a man so steeped in the racism of his day that he had no trouble excluding the Chinese from any possibility of citizenship become a champion of the "color blind Constitution"?

It seems to me that his experiences in the Civil War and in politics made him more attuned to the actualities of real life than did the arid reaches of legal theory.  The other "great dissenters" during this time period of the pre-modern Court were a Jew and another Civil War veteran.

It occurs to me that we have too many judges and legal scholars on the bench.  Earl Warren had been governor, Thurgood Marshall a plaintiff's lawyer, John Marshall, a officer in the Continental Army, a Secretary of State and a legislator.

If Antonin Scalia ever gets around to that massive rage fueled stroke that he's been working towards, maybe Obama could find someone with some real life political experience.

The Supremes could use some of that.

Fetus Pudding

http://tbogg.firedoglake.com/2012/07/04/happy-4th-of-july-enjoy-your-obamapocalypse/

Just read it...

Laughed out loud.

Well Played

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/07/shrodingers_romney.php?ref=fpblg

Eating Their Young

http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/07/jonathan-krohn-interview.php?ref=fpnewsfeed

Remember (or maybe not) that 13 year old, Santorum-approved-sweater-vest-wearing conservative kid who wandered briefly through the media wasteland four years ago?  His name was Jonathan Krohn.

Anyway, he grew up and now he's a centrist with some liberal leanings who said if he could vote he'd vote for Obama.

What makes this interesting, as the article attests, is that the conservative punditry which lauded him four years ago is now ripping this poor kid apart.  Maybe Krohn and John Roberts can get together and compare notes.

This goes back to Digby's famous aphorism: "Conservatism never fails, it can only be failed."  In other words, it's not that George Bush was a failure, it's that he was not sufficiently conservative enough.  John Roberts was, in fact, being quite conservative with his ruling last week.  He was using a 19th century reading of the commerce clause and an 18th century reading of the taxing power.  I doubt Alexander Hamilton would've faulted his logic at all.

Roberts has been repaid by ruthless attacks from the Right.  Many of the Left are saying, "Thanks, but dude that commerce clause ruling is nuts.  And we still hate you for Citizen's United."  Personally, I respect Roberts for realizing that the long term legitimacy of the Supreme Court was worth more than a policy victory.  I still think his judicial philosophy is tragic and anathema to modern reality, but I'll give him his due.

Not the Right, who are moving to excommunicate him.  Just like young Mister Krohn, when you cross the central tenet of conservatism - which seems to be "Never Disagree With The Current Orthodoxy" - you are a non-person.  You have been expelled from the movement to wander in the wilderness without a sinecure at the Heritage Foundation to clothe your nakedness.

One wonders about the long term viability of this strategy.  What if, for instance, Roberts is so stung by the rebukes from the Right - including his fellow justices - that he begins to hang out with Breyer a bit more? Or finds himself agreeing with Kagan a bit more?  What are they going to do, impeach him?

Obviously, the loss of a 17 year old "white Jewish nerd" isn't going to doom the Republican party, but eventually they will leave themselves with a rump if they continue to purge those who don't toe the party line.

Similarly, those Firebaggers who HATE Obama for occasionally compromising on issues that are near and dear to them need to realize that purity is a prime recipe for electoral defeat.  If Europe had not screwed up its monetary and fiscal policy so profoundly, the global economy would likely be recovering and Obama would be cruising to a second term at least in part because of the current ugliness of the Republican "brand".  And while I realize that a ton of people simply vote the party, eventually you can alienate enough people where that is no longer viable.

That was where the Left was by the '80s and I think that's where the Right is headed now.

Remember: Obama Is Good At Politics

Breaking the Etch-A-Sketch

There has been a bunch written  about the Obama attacks on Romney and Bain Capital.

At first, we got the usual pearl clutching from the pundits - many of whom know and have friends in finance - about how unfair this all was.  (I am teaching a workshop on research-based writing this week, and half the teachers are from public schools.  Needless to say they are dealing with different issues than we are.  My main issue is why so many of our brightest graduates wind up working in finance, when they seemed so full of promise when we taught them.  I guess that's just where the money is.)

Anyway, people are marveling at how the national tracking polls were trending Romney's way, while the swing state polls tended to favor Obama.  There are a few reasons for this.

First, Obama is going to get killed in the Red States.  That's going to drag down his national numbers.  Second, national tracking polls are only being done by Gallup and Rasmussen.  The latter has a well-known Republican "house effect" and the former has some odd assumptions about the demographic makeup of the 2012 electorate.  Interestingly, both daily trackers have shown movement towards Obama in the past few days.  An after effect of the ACA ruling?

Finally, with all respect to Nate Silver and Ruy Teixiera's excellent demographic analysis, candidates and campaigns matter.  Romney is not a good candidate and he stepped all over his response to the Court ruling.  And Obama is beating the Bain drum loud and often.  This is smart.  Because few "independent" voters were paying attention to the horror show that was the GOP nominating process.  All they know is Romney is a handsome guy with an "R" after his name.  Obama is systematically defining Romney as a vulture capitalist, an "outsourcer in chief."  Since Romney is predicating his campaign on his business acumen, this is a perfectly legitimate line of attack, no matter what Cory Booker says.

Most people's minds are made up about Obama and whether they will vote for him or not come November. Most people also don't like to be told they screwed up at the last election.  This is why the only incumbent Presidents to be beaten in a two person race since 1900 are Hoover and Carter, and even Carter had John Anderson on the ballot.

Romney's only chance is for the economy to weaken significantly - so far it's soft rather than weak - and to define himself as a reason to chuck out Obama.  By defining him first, the Obama campaign is reducing the efficacy of Mitt's Etch-A-Sketch moment.  Combine that with Romney's own tin-ear and his lack of demonstrated political empathy (as opposed to personal empathy, which who the hell knows) and you have a great opportunity to end this campaign before it really begins.

The poll numbers will continue to fluctuate.  McCain led Obama or was tied with him in the Summer of '08.  

The question is whether or not the Citizen's United billions will overwhelm people or whether - like most bad advertising - they will simply tune it out.

Dog Bites Man. Makes Him Gay

There you have it...

Anderson Cooper is TEH GHEY!   Who knew?  Aside from everyone?

Honestly, I thought he was out already.

Anyway, the take on this is best left to TBogg.

Cultural Whiplash

This guy?

Or this guy?

Last night, the Most Delightful and Radiant Wife and I sat down to watch Downton Abbey, which she hadn't seen.  Then, when she went to bed, I watched Breaking Bad.

The thing is, watching Bryan Cranston's Walt sit through an "intervention" over his cancer treatment was in many ways more powerful than any of the soap operatic delights of Downton Abbey.  I've only just started watching it, but I'm beginning to get why it is so critically lauded.  And most of it has to do with the dad from Malcolm in the Middle.

Which is weird.

Facts? We Don't Need No Stinking Facts!

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/07/the-individual-mandate-is-a-very-small-tax-chart.php?ref=fpblg

The GOP - predictably - is going to attack Obama for "raising taxes" because John Roberts only accepts a 19th century interpretation of the Commerce Clause, but he does accept 21st century political realities.

The above chart shows that the GOP attack of "Obama has the biggest tax increase in history" to be rankly, demonstrably and knowingly false.  Not that this will stop the GOP nor will the bulk of the media report the facts as facts.

Most interesting is looking at who DID have the largest tax increase as a percentage of GDP. Good thing that guy's not running today, he'd never make it out of the primary.

The Good Life

Yesterday, the Most Glorious and Thoughtful Wife and I did major work in the yard.  It was hot, but not hot like it is around the rest of the country. At the end of the day, we had a clean garage, some newly planted plants and a retaining wall mostly finished.

After a shower and a nap, we drove to a "surprise date" where she took me out to Ibiza in New Haven.  We had a simply fantastic meal.  Different ceviches, she had duck, I had rabbit.  I had been hoping to go to Ibiza for a few years now and it was worth the wait.  New Haven was bustling and lively, a far cry from the war zone it was when I toured Yale over 25 years ago.

That was a good day.