The Bounce

Mitt won the debate.  He is now seeing a large bounce from polling late last week.  But apparently that bounce dissipated as the days wore on.  Thursday and Friday saw GREAT numbers for Romney.  Saturday and Sunday, less so.

Still, I think it's clear that Obama burned through his margin of error that he had built in September.  I don't think the race is quite a toss-up.  We have seen a TON of partisan Republican polling that seemed to coincide with the whole "skewing" argument.  I just don't trust Gravis Marketing farther than I can throw them.

We will know better in a week or two how sustained Romney's bounce from the debate was.  My guess is that it greatly energized Republicans.  I don't think it changed many minds, but I could be wrong.

I think long term it means Obama won't win North Carolina.  And the Democrats now probably won't take back the House from a despondent GOP.  

That last part stings.

And We Are Back

When you go to New York, you cannot but be impressed with the disparate types of people who live stacked on top of each other.  We stayed with a friend on the upper East Side and it was probably more exceptional when we heard unaccented English.

And today we went to the 9/11 Memorial (above).  We walked around and scanned the names, found the brother of a friend of ours and took in the construction straining the sky around us.

And as we read those names, it occurred to me that there is no such thing as an "American" name at Ground Zero.  Yeah, a lot of Irish and Italian names, but there were Indian, Chinese, Arabic and Hispanic names all over those panels.

Before going in there, we stopped by the cemetery at Trinity Chapel after giving a prayer inside for peace.  Alexander Hamilton and Albert Gallatin - two of America's greatest Treasury secretaries and key figures in the early years of the Republic - are both buried there.  They had very different ideas about how to manage the public's finances and what America's role in the world should be.

But they were both immigrants, Hamilton from the West Indies and Gallatin from Switzerland.  Immigrants who devoted their lives to America.

Turns out there is no such thing as an American name anywhere.

Off To Expose The Things To Art

We'll see how that goes.

Have A Nice Weekend

Trying to get the family down to NYC to see the Met, Ground Zero and the Statue of Liberty.

Not sure what internet I'll have.

Take care.

F%%K THE POLICE

As a Braves fan I'm used to October heartache.  Outside of '95 (and frankly '91) every postseason has ended in heartbreak and sadness.  I still hate Jim Leyritz with the heat of a thousand suns.

But just when I thought October couldn't get any MORE painful, MLB manages to find a way.

First, they reduce a 162 game season to a one game playoff.  The Braves win the third most games in the NL and they have to play a one game playoff.  They proceed to play VERY poorly.  So far we are holding to form.

Then - in one of the worst rulings I can remember since Jim Joyce - the LF ump misapplies the infield fly rule.

Just atrocious.

And Selig, Torre and the cowards at MLB will never overturn it on protest.

Just awful.

I bet Matt Ryan breaks his leg on Sunday to complete the month of suck.

Jobs Report

http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2012/10/the-presidential-race-just-ended.html

Have a bad debate?  Take two months of good job growth and call me in the morning.

Inevitably, we will see what TPM is calling BLSTruthers saying that the Obama administration cooked the numbers.  I doubt that, just because it would be devastating if and when it came out.  But... if there was a way to depress the numbers from the last few months, so that things would look rosy right when those pesky undecideds were paying attention, that would be savvy.

Also, we've seen a real increase in consumer confidence, which has been weird, unless there has been an invisible recovery that people are seeing before the stats reveal it.  The number is not an absolute good, but it's a relative good.  And it's VERY good news for Obama.

The Soundbite War

The debate was kind of boring, when you think about. And debates often come down to soundbites.

Guess which soundbite is getting traction.  Nice zinger, Mitt.

Heh

http://www.balloon-juice.com/2012/10/04/mitt-romney-style/

The Pushback

The Obama campaign is flooding my inbox with notices of how rampantly Romney lied last night.  Which, you know, yeah.

This doesn't absolve Obama from sleepwalking through his debate.  But Obama - as a reader at TPM noted  - Obama is not very good at confrontation.  And so debates aren't really his forte.  Romney took advantage of this and played Alpha Dog.

I don't think this is going to swing the election, because how many women are going to be persuaded by Romney being a dick to Jim Lehrer?  The snap polls and focus groups all agree that Romney won the debate, but none of them really say that this has changed their votes.

To me, the real impact is among partisans.

Democrats have been sniping at Obama over the drone program recently.  They considered the race almost over and went back to Circular Firing Squad mode.  Meanwhile, the GOP was on suicide watch.

Romney's debate has put a shock into Democrats who spent the last few months amazed at the ineptitude of Romney as a candidate.  He's still an inept candidate, but he's an adept liar debater liar. Romney shambles is just a news cycle away from returning.  But Democrats are likely to re-rally behind Obama in the wake of a shaky debate.

But more importantly, I think it has energized Republicans who were also amazed at the ineptitude of their candidate.  Romney has shown - throughout his decades long pursuit of office - to be a vigorous, strident debater.  Obama made a decision (I guess it was a decision) to be low key.  It's his nature, after all.

Listening to NPR with half an ear this morning, Obama SOUNDED much better in sound bite form than Romney.  He was trying to be Presidential and aloof. Romney sounded overheated.  I'm not sure it worked the way Obama assumed it would.  I think Obama has also taken on the persona of a penitent, trying to make sure he doesn't sound triumphalist in the face of a crappy economy.

But he needs to come out as a fighter.  At the very least, Joe Biden needs to call Paul Ryan a liar to his face in the next debate.

I don't think this changed the race, but it changed the trajectory of the race, which was all against Romney.  He's stopped the bleeding, but he's still anemic.

Obama has to open a vein with the accusations of lying.  Bleed him white.  OK, whiter.

UPDATE: Oh, look!  I was right!

The Scorecard

Romney had a good debate, in terms of energy and aggressiveness.  Romney was able to establish himself as a credible candidate. He did that, probably.

I think Romney was a dick, but I've thought that for a while.  Will other people think he's a dick?

The bigger issue is that Obama didn't force the attack.  Romney left a ton of openings.  He said a bunch of stuff that is either outright false or mathematically impossible. Obama let that slide.

My guess... well, my hope, is that Obama is simply feeding Romney rope.  He pressed Romney for details and Romney offered a bunch of random facts that masquerade as a plan.

The next 24 hours need to be a full on press by the Obama team to point out the inaccuracies and impossibilities of Romney's "plans".  If they let this go, then Romney wins.

But experience hath shown that debates are rarely won on the stage.  They are won after the fact.

ADDED: If Obama was the challenger, he'd be toast after this debate.  As it is, he left a ton of openings that are going to need to be hit by his staff.  If he wasn't already president that would be really damaging.  Romney apparently helped his favorables, but then again, he went back on everything he said previously.

UPDATE: My favorite comment over at Balloon Juice:

A day may come, when the courage of men fails, when we forsake our friends and break all bonds of Fellowship, but it is not this day! An hour of wolves and shattered shields when the age of men comes crashing down, and BIG BIRD has been killed, But it is not this day! This day we fight! By all that you hold dear on this good earth, I bid you, Bert, Ernie, Grover, men of the West, stand and SAVE BIG BIRD!

Remember When I Wondered If DICK Romney Would Show Up?

He did.

I think Mitt decided tonight was a great time for his first cup of coffee.

***

Part of the problem is that Jim Lehrer thinks his job is to delineate the differences between the candidates.  The differences are pretty clear.  Making this debate kind of meaningless.

Also, too, Mitt is not going to win over those Walmart Moms by being all shouty and fast talking over Lehrer.

***

When the Romney debate team said, "Use more zingers" Romney heard, "Use more fingers."

***

The NYTimes panel is noting that Romney basically debating against the GOP orthodoxy.  Which will be interesting when the base gets a hold of him.  Or the Fact Checkers.

The Coming Debate

Presidential debates usually don't make a difference, except perhaps in a VERY tight election like 1960 or 1976.  Chait hits upon the main problems that R-Money specifically faces here.

But the thing about debates is that these are not high school debate competitions where the winners and losers are based on some points system.  These are won or lost on Saturday Night Live and by the media.  "I can see Russia from my house!" effectively stripped away the novelty from Sarah Palin and exposed her for the intellectual lightweight she is, much more effectively than the Katie Couric interview.

Mitt Romney is a dick.  We have well established this fact.  If Romney's innate dickishness comes out for a spin tonight, it will be interesting to see how that plays in the press.  While Obama is probably better liked both personally and ideologically by the press corps, they NEED a horse race.  And that's slipping away from them.

Recently the residents of La-La Land have proposed that the news media are "skewing" the polls.  This is, well, bullshit.  But the polls have seen a meager tightening the past week.  Is this because of the inevitable tightening that we see at this stage of most races?  Or did they adjust their samples in response to the Wurlitzer raving about skewing?  I have no idea.

But if Obama has a five point lead nationally and a seven point lead in the swing states, there is nothing to write about.  It's too early to write the official obituaries of the Romney campaign, so what would you write about?

Conservative mau-mauing of the media has led to a reflexive crouch among many journalists.  But they also hate Mitt Romney, the way most people come to hate him.  And they need a horse race.

What will be interesting to me is if the media push a Romney victory to try and tighten the race, but everyone else sees Dick Romney, Scion of the One Percent.

We Have Our New Demographic

Biden reaching out to the Walmart Mom.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/why-obama-is-leading-in-swing-states-20121001?print=true

First it was "Soccer Moms".  Then "Security Moms".  Then "NASCAR Dads".

In 2012, we have the "Walmart Moms".

Obama has Target Moms, Cinco de Mayo Dads, Hip Hop Uncles and MFA Aunts all sewn up.

But the Walmart mom is what is propelling him to victory, because that is a slice of the electorate that is not necessarily disposed to him: non-college, blue collar whites.

He is not running well with the NASCAR dads.

The piece seems to suggest that it is the 47% thing that is killing Romney with Walmart Moms, and that might be true.  But it might also be that the GOP has spent the last two years trying to intrude on the vaginas and uteri of millions of Americans - and not in a nice way.

Voting Rights

Pennsylvania has enjoined part of the Voter ID law.

I'm too tired to make sense of the legalese, but basically if you fail to show an ID, you can still vote.  In Connecticut, if you have no voter ID, you sign an affidavit vowing that you are, indeed, who you say you are.  That allows for some scrutiny and accountability but does not disenfranchise legal voters.

I don't know if that's what the judge held, but if not, why not?

The Master Debaters

http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/presidential-debate-2012-preview-13267394

I will probably glance at the debates.  Most likely I will follow the Twitter-verse as they unfold.  I will watch post-debate highlight reels.  I will read transcripts.

But presidential debates are no more debates than they are ostriches.  There is no give-and-take between them.  It's a series of dueling soundbites.  And as Mr. Pierce notes, you have two of the most cautious politicians of all time up there.  No-Drama Obama and the Mittbot 2000.

Now, the Veep debate could be interesting...