Not Just DC

 The WaPost has put up a timeline of Wednesday, and what is striking to me - who was glued to the TV for hours - was that these violent protests were not limited to the Capitol grounds. Similar assaults on the capitol builds occurred in GA, LA, OH, UT, NM, CO, TX, MN, CA, AZ and OR. 

In an exchange with a colleague, he asked how we respect and teach those who believed all the Little Lies until they needed to believe the Big Lie. 

I think we are past that point.

When Deray McKesson came to speak at our school, he said that (at least his version of) Black Lives Matter didn't want "no police" they just wanted police to treat Blacks the same as Whites, that communities of color are simultaneously over- and underpoliced. As we saw this summer, police are perfectly willing to deploy "less than lethal" munitions against peaceful protestors when they are Black, and they need to start employing the same tactics against the violent protests from the Right. 

Ever since Ruby Ridge/Waco and Timothy McVeigh, law enforcement has handled Right Wing anarchists and terrorists different than Left protestors and anarchists. The lesson of the McVeigh has been overlearned to the point where we basically tolerate massive illegality on the Right for fear they might use violence against the state. 

What we are discovering now is that this tactic hasn't worked, and it needs to change.

The High Priest Of The Big Lie

 This excellent essay by Professor Timothy Snyder tries to place Trump, Trumpism and the GOP into the proper context of fascism and other forms of authoritarianism. 

I have never been convinced that Trump was a true fascist. (This offer does not apply to Stephen Miller, Sebastian Gorka or others around Trump.) He lacked any ideology beyond his personal vanity. He played many of the strings on the fascist violin. Trump's belief in racism and white nationalism, his open embrace of dictatorships and contempt for democracy, these are clearly fascist. But he failed to explicitly embrace militarism and imperialism, because the military were insufficiently sycophantic to his person. He only tepidly embraced using state power to reward the bulk of his followers. His engagement in Covid relief is a great example of him being too lazy and self-centered to be a proper fascist. If he had really pressed for more checks, if infrastructure week wasn't a running joke, maybe he starts to become a full-fledged fascist. 

Trump is undoubtedly an authoritarian. Think about how that manifests though. HIS elections were fraudulent, including 2016, because it didn't reflect on his glory. The other GOP losses? He couldn't care less. Fascism is devoted to the party and Volk. Trump was only devoted to himself.

What Snyder also nails is the importance of the "Big Lie." Trump is the undisputed master of the "Little Lie." He could not speak more than five minutes without lying, from the moment he came down the escalator to five minutes ago, Trump lied about everything. As Snyder notes, many of Trump's lies were also "Medium Lies." Snyder:

Some of his lies were, admittedly, medium-size: that he was a successful businessman; that Russia did not support him in 2016; that Barack Obama was born in Kenya. Such medium-size lies were the standard fare of aspiring authoritarians in the 21st century. In Poland the right-wing party built a martyrdom cult around assigning blame to political rivals for an airplane crash that killed the nation’s president. Hungary’s Viktor Orban blames a vanishingly small number of Muslim refugees for his country’s problems. But such claims were not quite big lies; they stretched but did not rend what Hannah Arendt called “the fabric of factuality.”

What Trump did, though, was seed the ground for the Big Lie. That was the lie that America's democracy had failed because it did not give Trump a second term. That was the Big Lie that lead to the Cracker Barrel Putsch on Wednesday. That Big Lie was created by Trump AND THE BROADER GOP'S assault on objective reality. Here is Snyder on the cultivation of the small lies:

Thanks to technological capacity and personal talent, Donald Trump lied at a pace perhaps unmatched by any other leader in history. For the most part these were small lies, and their main effect was cumulative. To believe in all of them was to accept the authority of a single man, because to believe in all of them was to disbelieve everything else. Once such personal authority was established, the president could treat everyone else as the liars; he even had the power to turn someone from a trusted adviser into a dishonest scoundrel with a single tweet. Yet so long as he was unable to enforce some truly big lie, some fantasy that created an alternative reality where people could live and die, his pre-fascism fell short of the thing itself.

By constantly lying and smearing the media, Trump made himself the only trusted source of information for millions of Americans. Social Media has amplified and accelerated this. Snyder mentions the death of local news...and, yeah, sure. But America has entered into Post-Truth Politics and the death of local news because there are now hundreds of other sources of "news." Trump exploited  the existing landscape. 

So, is Trump a fascist? A little bit, but not entirely. Does that in any excuse his or his party's behavior? Absolutely not. You can be an authoritarian dictator without being fascist.

Now...Josh Hawley on the other hand...

Eleven Days

 I'm guessing every day for at least the next 11 days will demonstrate yet another example of Trump's lawlessness. Today, we have what amounts to obstruction of justice in Georgia (naturally).

The House looks to impeach (or try to impeach) on Monday. That's providing we survive the weekend. It does sound like the military is taking steps to remove Trump's ability to create a war away from him. Given reports of him being basically non compos mentis, I doubt he has the mental wherewithal to make a "cunning plan" to subvert the measures being put in place to constrain him. 

If the House votes to impeach on Monday or Tuesday, the Senate trial can basically hang over his head as a threat. Personally, I hope that McConnell brings the Senate back into sessions and almost all Republicans stay away. Conviction in the Senate of a sitting President requires 2/3rds of all members present. If all 48 Democrats (presuming Ossoff and Warnock are not yet certified the winners) and a handful of Republicans (McConnell, Romney, Toomey would do) are present, Trump could be removed from office. Republicans can claim they didn't support it because they are cowards. The nation could be spared Trump's manic flailings and self-serving pardons. Pence can put on his Big Boy Pants for a week and we can wait to see what fresh hell Trump and his cultists unleash on 1/20.

Impeachment

 At some point, we need to impeach Trump so he can't run in 2024. Part of me wants to see him run again in '24 and get spanked even worse without the trappings of office and perhaps facing active court proceedings. I do worry that our legal system has proven problematic in prosecuting the rich and powerful though and the last thing I want is to roll the dice again in 2024 as to whether we become a dictatorship.

So I applaud Pelosi's agreeing with her members to advance this. If nothing else, it could put Trump in check as he awaits the Senate trial. 

By my count, we have 52 votes, with Romney and Murkowski seemingly on board. Frankly, I could see McConnell stepping up on this to get some Beltway plaudits.

Apparently the 25th Amendment will fail. This has to happen.

DC

 Yesterday, as I've tried to argue below, the Capitol Police were overwhelmed by sheer numbers. The only way they could have been stopped was if the National Guard was there or perhaps large numbers of riot police.

So why weren't they there?

The best and simplest answer is that the Mayor of DC has no authority to do so. The authority rests with the Congress, the Pentagon and especially the President. There are some conflicting reports about exactly who called out the National Guard eventually, but we know that Maryland and Virginia sent significant police presences as well.

All of this is to say: It is well past time for DC to be a state.

The Capitol Police

 There's obviously a ton that I could write about concerning yesterday's putsch attempt, but I wanted to pushback on some of the online speculation about the Capitol Police. There are a few images of Capitol police abandoning barricades, one in particular has gotten a lot of mileage on social media. There is a lot more footage that will come out, and I recommend starting with this intrepid report from ITV. 

There very well could have been some complicity on the part of a few Capitol police officers. We certainly know that police lean authoritarian in their politics. But watching several clips of footage, it's clear that what happened was that they were overwhelmed. The Capitol police are not "real" police, in the sense of having riot control training. They basically patrol the Capitol grounds, usher visitors around and protect the Members of Congress. They are responsible not only for the massive Capitol building, but also the office buildings - huge bureaucratic buildings with hundreds of offices. They had about 2000 officers to cover the Capitol, the Russell, Dirksen, Hart, Cannon, Longworth and Rayburn buildings. 

It looks like as many as 10,000 Trumpist brown shirts flooded the Capitol grounds. At some point, a decision was made not to use live ammunition. Many people have commented that if these protestors were Black or Brown, the outcome would have been a bloodbath. I certainly hope we never have to test that hypothesis. We do know that one Trumpist, QAnon supporter was shot and killed by Capitol police. In the nationwide protests immediately following George Floyd's death, 19 people died. Four people died yesterday, though three died of "medical reasons" that are currently obscure. There is video or Capitol police shoving and punching the insurrectionists. 

There should very much be a reckoning. The problem, though, seems to me to be primarily one of a failure of imagination or even just observation on the part of Capitol and DC police forces. This was all very predictable. When I saw the first Trumpists attacking the barricades, I presumed that National Guard troops were on close stand-by and would come in to beef up the uniformed police. There were no National Guard forces available until much later. 

The Capitol police are fully capable of manning metal detectors, arresting a handful of protestors and their usual daily job. They are not capable of stopping an insurrection. Their first job is the security of the Members and their staff. When the insurrectionists breached Capitol grounds, they prioritized getting Members and staff to safety. They achieved that. Ultimately, the putsch failed. 

The first question is why they weren't prepared for an insurrection. 

So far, there have only been 52 arrests. Again, many on social media were wondering why they weren't arresting more people inside the Capitol. Again, it comes down to numbers. Their priority was clearing the Capitol grounds so that the counting of the Electoral votes could proceed and the members could be safe. Presumably, the 52 who were arrested were arrested for resisting those efforts. 

Here's the crux of the matter and I think just as important is finding out why they weren't prepared for an insurrection: what now? 

Federal law enforcement remains paralyzed by the memory of Ruby Ridge and Waco. They handle Rightist and Fascist groups very gingerly, at least in part because those groups are armed to the teeth. They presume, perhaps correctly, that every Randy Weaver becomes a martyr that creates more radicalization. However, at some point, this creates a feedback loop of lawlessness that culminated with insurrectionists storming the US Capitol. There is a direct line from how Ammon Bundy was handled to how yesterday unfolded.

There is ample evidence of who was breaking the law. These morons had their phones out, taking videos of themselves breaking the law. It made tactical sense not to try and arrest them all last night. You had a mob amped up on hate and anger, feeding off each other and not enough officers to both control them and arrest them.

However, they are now dispersing back to their homes. Arrest them in groups. Arrest them as they get off the plane. Arrest them on their way to work on Monday. 

I am sympathetic to the fact that a police force was unable to stop an insurrection. That's the military's job, usually. I am mildly understanding of not wanting to create martyrs or a mass casualty event in the halls of the Capitol. My understanding stops short of "let bygones be bygones."

Make no mistake, they will try this again. If there is one silver lining, it's that we now have a dry run for what they will attempt on January 20th. The authorities in DC were naïve in the extreme in thinking that the Trumpist Brown Shirts were just another protest group, that could be handled like just another protest. The blinders are off. Everyone of us who were saying Trump is this bad are exactly right. His supporters really are Deplorables and they are currently simmering in their 8chan rooms waiting to try this again.

Yesterday was a declaration of civil war by those Deplorables and there can be no confusion about what comes next.

The Sneaky Clause of the 25th Amendment

 There is increasing talk that members of the Cabinet are considering invoking the 25th Amendment. Given the events of today, it might actually land. I can think of a few Cabinet members (Mnuchin, Chao, maybe even Carson) who would jump on board. If you get to 50% of the Cabinet and the Vice President, Section 4 of the 25th Amendment is invoked. 

Once it is invoked, the President can challenge it by transmitting a written declaration that he is fit for office. As long as the majority of the Cabinet and Vice President continue to assert that the President is unfit for office, the issue then passes to the Congress. Congress can then hold hearings for up to 21 days to evaluate the President. 

Biden becomes President in 14 days. 

In short, the 25th Amendment was never going to work because the Republican Party, especially in the fever swamps of the House, is in thrall to Trump. It CAN work, with less than 21 days however.

ALSO! The House should impeach again. But if they can get the 25th Amendment loophole, they should impeach after 1/20...a bare majority can prevent him from ever holding office again.

Holy Crap, It Happened

 There was a moment last night when CNN said - wrongly - that there weren't enough votes left in Dekalb County for Ossoff to win. After looking at really strong numbers all evening, I felt that old Democratic Dread creeping in. Somehow, defeat would be snatched from the jaws of victory.

And then it didn't happen. 

There is a coalition building between Blacks and College Educated Whites that could redraw the American political map. As Ohio reddens, Georgia, North Carolina and potentially Texas loom as the new battleground states. Virginia is now Blue, along with Colorado. A different dynamic is flipping Arizona, but the larger pattern holds. 

Republicans have benefitted from those White College Educated Suburban voters for a long time. As "professional class" whites abandon the GOP, it not only means places like Georgia become competitive while places like Virginia stop being competitive, it also means things for midterm elections. Those white suburban voters show up. Year after year, election after election.

They show up for a simple reason: they believe their vote will count. I mean, they are white, well off and things more or less work for them. No one is trying to disenfranchise them and never have. If African Americans begin to believe the same thing - and that was Stacey Abrams' accomplishment, as much as physically registering voters - then the electoral map gets harder and harder for Republicans.

Real change is possible now. The tax code will become fairer. Regulations can be rewritten more quickly. Judges and Cabinet posts can be filled quickly. Republicans will have to explain why they are filibustering legislation to create Green jobs or a new Voting Rights Act. 

This is a Big Fucking Deal.

2021 Off To A Great Start

 Did you hear the good news?

Oh, This Is Interesting

 The House could impeach Trump again AFTER Biden is inaugurated, and if a bare majority of the Senate approves, he could never hold federal office again. Obviously, if Democrats win in Georgia, Mitt Romney would join them and that's 51 votes. Maybe Ben Sasse or Susan Collins joins in, knowing that Trump has been permanently neutered.

Georgia

 Polls (I know) say it's a toss-up, and that certainly tracks with what happened in November. Ultimately, it will be about turnout. Early voting looks good for Ossoff and Warnock, so we will have to see what same-day voting looks like. 

Basically, my gut says one of two things will happen.

1) Trump is no longer on the ballot, Loeffler and Perdue are empty suits. Democratic inroads with reliable voters in the suburbs of Atlanta provide the margins of victory.

2) Republicans, convinced by Trump that elections are fraudulent, flood the polls to "stop the steal." Gain the suburbs stall and rural Georgia overwhelms Fulton and DeKalb counties.

Either one is plausible. 

Oh, and we won't know for days.

The Emerging Democratic Majority

 John Judis and Ruy Teixeira wrote a book call The Emerging Democratic Majority in 2002 (here is the summary from 2012, after Obama's re-election). Teixeira predicted that the "Obama Coalition" was here to stay...and then 2016 happened. Of course, the "Obama Coalition" did provide a plurality of the electorate for Hillary Clinton, but Trump upended things by breaking the Blue Wall. John Judis revisited it in August.

I find Judis' analysis fairly unconvincing (and not just in this instance). Judis tends to be very much a deterministic materialist, which is to say, everything is explained by economics. In his analysis, Obama and the Democrats lost support in 2010, because their policy portfolio wasn't economically populist enough. Maybe. Or maybe the absolute freakout by the Tea Party over being given health care has more to do with "those people" benefitting from government programs. I'm not saying it's ALL racial resentment, but it sure explains a lot.

It would be easy and wrong to read to much into this week's runoff in the Georgia election. In many ways, the future of competent governance is on the ballot. If Democrats win, they can control the legislative agenda and force the GOP to vote against popular programs. At the very least, Cabinet members and judges can get hearings and confirmed. 

Early voting is once again vigorous. Over 42% of registered voters in Fulton County have voted, as have over 40% of Cobb County and 46% of Dekalb.  But over 49% of Fayette County - overwhelmingly white - has also voted. Non-Hispanic Blacks and Non-Hispanic Whites are voting at roughly the same rate. Over 118,000 voters have voted who did not vote in November and total turnout is over 3,000,000. A little under 5,000,000 voted in November. 

Runoffs are usually low voter turnout affairs, and we won't know whether that largely holds true depending on in-person voting later this week. Maybe everyone has already voted and election day only adds a million votes. Maybe turnout matches or exceeds November.

The really interesting test case is for what the "Trump Voter" means for the future of the Republican Party. It is clear that Trump energized a segment of the electorate that is hard to measure via polls and votes somewhat irregularly. This "working class" demographic (better understood as Whites Without College, some of whom are quite well off) was once part of the Democratic Coalition. Race, sexuality, gender issues...all have shorn these voters from the Democratic Party. As they have left, college educated suburbanites (especially, but not exclusively women) have filled in the gaps. 

Those college educated voters are more dependable voters, especially in lower turnout elections. The usual dynamic was this: Democrats did great in Presidential years, with higher voter turnout. In midterm elections, Republicans did better, because their voters voted. If that dynamic erodes, with Democrats being able to count on strong support in midterm elections, there is a chance for Democrats to retain a working majority in the House for the foreseeable future.

This Is A Crime

 The Post has obtained a recording of Trump trying to solicit a crime from the Georgia Secretary of State, Brad Raffensberger. The article is peppered by a few quotes from legal experts who say that it's unclear whether or not this qualifies as a crime. It certainly seems to me - completely untrained in the law - that doctoring electoral results is a crime. Asking someone to doctor electoral results - which is what Trump explicitly did on the phone call - is solicitating someone to commit that crime.

I doubt this crime comes with stiff sentences, but it should be the first focus of prosecutors, not only for Trump, but everyone who is participating in this ongoing effort to undermine the election of 2020. Back in 2017 when Neil Gorsuch was being confirmed to a seat that rightly belonged to Merrick Garland, Democrats were told elections have consequences. In 2020, during impeachment, Democrats were told that elections were the proper way to hold Trump accountable. Now that the election has been held and Trump has been repudiated, the GOP wants to erase the election.

This is as disturbing as pretty much anything Trump has done, aside from family separation. It certainly looks like the GOP is largely in lockstep with Trump in the active commission of this crime against American democracy. 

To be clear, I don't think Trump has much of any chance of overturning his loss. This isn't about that. It's about clear consequences for attacking the very idea of Democratic governance. Do we really think that if the GOP had control of the House, that this flagrant attack on the rule of law might not succeed? This is about establishing clear and criminal consequences for trying to undermine an election. This is a crime against everything that America has purported to stand for since 1776. 

Political squeamishness should not stand in the way of bringing these fuckers before the law.

Cowards Or Cynics

 We now have about a dozen Senators along with maybe a hundred House members who will baselessly contest the certification of Joe Biden in a few days. They don't believe the election is fraudulent. Maybe a few of the dumber House members do, but I would guess the ones who really believe that there was fraud can be counted on one hand.

The question therefore is whether they are cynical trying to light American electoral democracy on fire so they can capture Trump's fervid cultists or whether they are simply cowards before that same group. They could see that sucking up to the OANN/Breitbart/Epoch Times whackaloons as a way to position themselves for 2024. Trump will likely face multiple indictments (whether you can find 12 impartial jurors is an open question). So maybe they think they can seize his position. I doubt it. 

Maybe instead they fear the fate of Jeff Flake and others who dared get out of step with Trump.

The whole party needs to be burned to the ground.

What I've Missed

 Normally, I would be at the family farm in Georgia with friends I've known literally my whole life. This year, two of our moms would not be there, having died, though not of Covid. It's because of Covid that we aren't congregating there and likely never will again. That's not necessarily because of Covid, but it is because of 2020. 

My professional life has been turned upside down by the pandemic. Teaching is harder than it has been since I was a young teacher. Parenting remains hard. Getting older and less healthy remains hard. 

But I'm very lucky. I'm materially well off. Whatever struggles my sons have had and will have, we are in a position to support them. My school is better off than most and did a good job this fall, at least, with containing the pandemic.

I don't know what 2021 has in store for us. I'm not so naïve to believe that things will get better because we flipped a page on the calendar. Not having that orange-tinted fuckstick in the White House will help my equilibrium some. If we say 2021 can't be worse, we are setting ourselves up for something awful.

I certainly hope this year is better for all of us. Hope is better than the alternative.