Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Thursday, November 11, 2021

Higher Education Is Kind Of Broken

 News that a prestigious university like USC engaged in horrible behavior to harvest students and bilk them of tuition for bad online courses should not be a shock to anyone.

A number of years ago, I remember reading how automation, computers and fast communications (the internet) were increasing labor efficiency by leaps and bounds, but two sectors were immune to this: education and medicine. Medicine has subsequently found a way to use the internet to improve efficiency. When I had Covid pneumonia, I was in a little hospital on Nantucket, but my chest CT scans were read by a radiologist in Boston (I think).  The ability to share data quickly has lead to some real improvements in healthcare delivery.

Which leaves education. 

Public high schools are struggling with poor working conditions, mediocre salaries and now batshit insane parents and school board members threatening to burn books. But ultimately high school education is "always broken" and always trundling along, doing better than you think but not as good as it should.

Higher education is much worse. Because it's not universal, there is no need to create common requirements and standards. The advent of bloated bureaucracies of administrators has ballooned the budget without necessarily adding to the quality of the educational experience. Adjunct professors - the Uber drivers of academia - are now the standard. A university scrimps on teaching and scholarship, while building expensive new building to sell on the tours to harvest more full-pay students to pay more administrators.

Online "education" has a narrow potential to create a few good graduate level programs with flexible hours and workloads for people who need to keep working while they get an advanced degree. Because a prosperous life is now largely correlated with a BA-or-better degree, colleges can harvest students without actually providing them with a useful education. This isn't a "teaching" problem, it's an institutional problem.

We need national standards for online education, because it is rife with opportunities to scam students.

Wednesday, November 10, 2021

We Have To Change Our Metrics

 I'm seeing a lot of things like this tweet, that talk about rising cases in America. You see the same issue on Covid ActNow, which is a reliance on "cases" to talk about spread. As testing is still fairly pervasive, we have a much better idea of who is currently carrying the virus. If you look at the map at the tweet, you can see that Africa has almost no cases. Really? Given how poor their vaccination rates are?

Much more likely is that much of the developing world simply doesn't know who is infected, because they lack the testing infrastructure. However, knowing someone is infected does not determine whether they are sick. My county is currently listed as dark orange or "high" risk. Currently these are the numbers they list at Covid ActNow: Litchfield has about 14 new "cases" per 100,000; our R0 is 1.03; our positive test rate is 3.8% and 77% of residents have at least one dose of the vaccine.

One metric that they DON'T use is hospitalizations, especially ICU. They have it on their website though, and only 29% of ICU beds are filled. Deaths are sporadic. In fact, ActNow rates our vulnerability as Very Low, even as they rate our risk level as High.

That simply doesn't add up.

Covid is not going anywhere. We need to understand that. Andy Slavitt, an epidemiologist whose been a voice of sanity on Twitter (of all places), wants to stress that we are not at the end of this pandemic. Certainly new variants are pretty terrifying, as we saw with Delta. Reasonable precautions should be followed, but "reasonable" varies from person to person.

It seems we are finally moving past the Hot Take Season over Democrat's poor performance in Virginia and New Jersey, though everyone wants to focus on CRT and liberal culture war overreach. If you want to know my theory as to why Democrats suffered and why Biden has low approval ratings? Simple, Covid continues to bedevil our lives - both in terms of schools and the economy. There are still some school districts that are virtual or partly virtual. The disruptions to the economy are real, and people are unhappy. When they are unhappy they take it out on the President's party.

As we move into a world where vaccines and therapeutics greatly reduce the number of Covid deaths, we need to adjust how we deal with Covid. In the US, deaths are falling after the DeSantis Wave of early fall. Not quite to the rate of the giddy months of June and July, but deaths lag cases by several weeks, especially as we get better at treating the disease.

I wear a mask to class; I wear a mask to shop; but I'm not typical in my community. Lots of people in stores are going unmasked. It could very well be that they have Covid and are simply asymptomatic. There are small measures that we should continue to take. I don't really care about wearing a mask, but I very much want this wrestling season to happen. My athletes have missed a season that they will never get back.

We can no longer set policies, though, based on the idea that we have to get to zero infections, but as close to zero deaths as possible. Back in 2020, Trumpist talking points were that Covid was "just like the flu." That was bullshit. But that IS what we need to be willing to accept, and I wonder how we are going to measure that.

Tuesday, November 9, 2021

Measuring DEI Success

Professional Contrarian Matthew Yglesias has written a pair of articles drawing into question various practices surrounding DEI efforts in schools. His point is not to jump on the ludicrous CRT bandwagon, but rather to note that some of the controversial ideas of CRT are imbibed in graduate programs in education and come out in flawed practices.

Notably, he takes issue with the idea that poor performances by students of color on standardized testing means that the test are basically racist. In fact, it seems the evidence is much more suggestive that poverty, poor school infrastructure, poor school meals and poorly paid and trained teachers is a much more plausible root cause of poor performance. The stress of poverty, in fact, functions almost as a form of transient brain damage, no different than a concussion. Generational poverty therefore functions more like CTE. 

Another point he makes - and again, I can see the merit here - is that parent anger about public schools is less about CRT and more about prolonged school closures. This goes back to the long internecine warfare between people like Yglesias and Jon Chait over teacher's unions. Teacher's unions are reliable voting pools for Democrats, yet they often stand in the way of needed reform. Bad teachers should not be rewarded with lifetime sinecure. Mediocre teachers should be given the resources and a mandate to improve. Good teachers should be rewarded. However, because "good" and "bad" are often measured by standardized testing, there is a powerful incentive for unions to decry the merits of a metric that might hold them accountable for their classroom performance.

I have long been skeptical of education schools' scholarship. Here is a good example of why. Rigorous, evidence-based social science is REALLY hard. Political science really struggles to account for causation vs correlation, and using evidence that does not come with some form of inherent or implied bias (in an academic, not a racial sense). It very often fails, but the field sees the wrestling with the nature of evidence as a critical part of its scholarship. Very often, education studies rely on small data sets and don't filter for confirmation bias. 

Yglesias notes how phonics education for reading has really proven to work, yet schools stepped away from phonics. There was a really interesting comment from a parent whose child was struggling - to the point of tears - with algebra 1, because she had never memorized her multiplication tables. Phonics and memorization are "boring," our director of learning and pedagogy decries any attempt to drill into students basic facts via memorization. All the literature says "engagement" is more important.

If all this is true, how were we ever educated in the past? Of course, many millions were not educated well. Public education as "always been failing." And to a certain degree, pedagogy is malleable - a relationship between teacher and student. When I speak to current and former public school educators and they tell me that they have 160 students across six sections, I'm left speechless. It is almost impossible to find a pedagogical solution to those ratios. If I have 160 students, you're damned sure I'm going to give more multiple choice tests and fewer essays. At this point in the year, I'm starting to know exactly how each of my students write, what their relative strengths and weaknesses are, and what interventions they prefer, if any. Without knowing that baseline information, any blanket pedagogy is unlikely to help.

My school is excellent. It's not perfect, but it's excellent. We have amazing kids who are motivated to do well, both because they self-select to come here and because the environment promotes a culture of excellence. We have tailor-made supports for students who need them. It costs a shitload of money.

But I think it works, and I'm most proud of the dozens of students each year who come from the sort of backgrounds that typical don't produce four-year college students that we send on to very fine schools. We can change lives that way. Now, they self-select, they usually come through foundations that help prepare them to come here, they are not selected at random. However, it still works. And the evidence is, frankly, yes, some standardized tests like APs, and our college admissions picture. I had a wrestling captain whose parents lived over the bodega that they ran. He went to Johns Hopkins for pre-med. Those are my favorite stories, but they come with a measurable result.

So much of our DEI work has been...good? I guess? I know there's a playbook. We had a series of horrible acts of racist graffiti a few years back. We went through a series of meetings and ad hoc committees. After George Floyd, we added various affinity groups, held innumerable workshops, brought in guest speakers like Eddie Glaude, training over the summer...all the things the playbook says to do.

Maybe they helped? I don't know. I don't think we ever measured whether they helped. I would guess that affinity groups have helped students who are clearly a small percentage of our overall student body, feel safe to discuss certain things. But they also silo those experiences away from the White majority. What we have NOT done is measure the effectiveness of all those steps. We did not measure racial attitudes before and after we took those steps, especially among White students. If anything, the anecdotal evidence I got from my two (White) sons is that some of it may have unsurprisingly backfired. Our director of pedagogy is quick to note that lectures are often poor forms of instruction, and then we set off on a nine month sermon that probably reinforced racist or bigoted attitudes in exactly the sort of students we would have most liked to reach.

As a US History teacher, I feel very comfortable saying both that Thomas Jefferson was an extraordinary humanist, who introduced and advocated for popular rule and natural rights that was truly revolutionary, while predicating those amazing ideas upon a foundation of white supremacy. For democracy to challenge social hierarchies and castes, it had to be built upon racial hierarchies and castes. It can be both. And those ideas sowed the very seeds that destroyed the idea of racial castes and chattel slavery, even if their founder could not have imagined that.

In other words, education is messy and nuanced and incredibly human. If we are going to engage in improving it, we should probably account for that. And we should be skeptical of One Weird Trick pedagogies or the latest fad from the academy. My wife and I argue over the merits of having grades. The examples of schools that DON'T use grades and have success is great, until you realize that those schools have about 50 students over six grades. That's not a school, it's a tutorial. The "evidence" is not very rigorous.

As we - rightly - try and create a school system that is inclusive and is tasked with overcoming the history of racism in this country, we should make damned sure the methods that we use are actually working. I have no idea if they are.


Consequences

 There is understandable frustration with the pace of the January 6th investigation and other investigations surrounding Trump. I think the House 1/6 Committee should plan on having a final report and set of indictments ready for the day after the midterm election. I really don't think you want to indict prominent Republicans before the midterms, because you will fire up the Deplorables who think when the rule of law is applied to them it's socialist, Maoist, communist, Stalinism. Indicting Ambulatory Hamsack Steve Bannon, though? Who cares, do it!

However, the recent video shared by Rep Paul Gosar should probably elicit an immediate and forceful response. To spare you from watching it, it shows Sentient Beef Jerky Stick Gosar as an anime character attacking Democrats, including killing AOC and attacking Joe Biden with swords. I "get" that the Republican Party is not so much a vehicle for a coherent political ideology and more an elaborate nesting doll of online trolling. "Owning the libs" is pretty much all they want or know how to do. I personally thinking Joe Biden should start wearing a "Brandon" button to troll them right back for "Let's Go Brandon."

What Gosar has done is explicitly depict himself engaged of acts of targeted violence towards fellow members of Congress and the President of the United States. Censure isn't really enough. The House should vote to expel him. If possible, line up a few of the sane Republicans like Cheney and Kinzinger to vote to remove him.

Gosar is a horrific human being whose own family hates him. Of course, most Republicans will rally around him, but I really thing a winning strategy for 2022 and 2024 is constantly and forcefully remind voters that the GOP has become an authoritarian cult of personality that is perfectly fine with political violence to advance their aims. 

Force the House GOP to defend Gosar.

Monday, November 8, 2021

Federalism Mostly Sucks

 This article about Jackson, Mississippi is just depressing. During the worst excesses of Trumpism, living in an indigo Blue state was a blessing, but for the most part a federal system that allows state governments to thwart needed services in cities is really bad. We saw it first with the Affordable Care Act, where states like Texas and, yes, Mississippi turned down billions of federal dollars to make sure that their citizens would never believe that the government can make their lives better. Now we see a case where critical dollars appropriated explicitly to fix problems like Jackson's might not go where they are supposed to.

I'm sure this is really just a messaging problem, though.

Sunday, November 7, 2021

How Is This A Sustainable Political Party?

 On Friday, House Democrats and a handful of Republicans voted for the BIB infrastructure bill. It got votes from Republicans in both the Senate and House. That makes it bipartisan, kids!

The House Republican response to this is...unhinged.

There are several themes in the GOP reponse.

The first is that Biden's economic plan has led to inflation and supply chain issues. This is transparent bullshit, but it's normal political bullshit. Same with deficit concerns. Bish, please.

The second is that somehow the time of day matters. Lots of talk about a midnight bill. What the actual fuck? I know most GOP voters can't stay up past 10pm, but who honestly cares?

The third is, of course, socialism. Now, the BIB is a lot of things, but if it is "socialism" than ANY spending is socialism, which might actually be how batshit insane the GOP has become. What is going to be interesting is seeing what happens to public opinion about socialism. If "popular things" is socialism, then why is socialism bad?

I do think that the bullshit socialism label hurt Biden with some South Florida Hispanic voters, and maybe some along the Rio Grande - two places he underperformed. It was a combination of "socialism," the Defund the Police gaffe and the power of incumbency. The problem with this line of attack should be obvious: infrastructure spending - and much of the BBB bill - is broadly very popular.

When Biden runs against in 2024 - presumably against Trump - the label of "socialism" is simply not going to stick.

Saturday, November 6, 2021

The Heat Death of the Marvel Cinematic Universe (Spoilers, I guess)

 In physics, there is a concept known as the "heat death of the universe." An open scientific question is whether the universe is somehow finite or bound or whether it will simply keep expanding and expanding until it grows colder and colder as it grows vaster and vaster. Marvel is testing that from an artistic platform.

The "phases" of the MCU were designed both to lead up to the Avengers: Endgame extravaganza while setting the stage for future movies. Amazingly, Marvel more or less stuck the landing with Endgame, which prompted the question: What next?

Sadly, Marvel has decided to go bigger and bigger, vaster and vaster, risking the heat death of physics. I have not seen the latest MCU Disney+ offering of "What if..?" simply because I haven't gotten around to it. I've seen Loki. Falcon and the Winter Soldier and WandaVision. Because the MCU is really more of a massive television show than a series of movies, these fit in well with what came before. All of them expanded on the storylines of characters who were important, though not central, in the lead up to Endgame. Loki, in particular, suggested where the franchise was headed, building off themes from Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse, themes which will be expanded upon in the upcoming Spider-Man movie: No Way Home

Basically, rather than tell a coherent story about Tony Stark and Steve Rogers bickering over how to save the earth from extraterrestrial evil, we will now have multiple, parallel universes - similar but unique. 

While it is not a multi-verse story, The Eternals suggest the peril that Marvel now face. 

Look, The Eternals was...fine. It wasn't "bad." It simply never gripped me. Oh, the earth is in trouble from a celestial being? OK. I'm going to go ahead and predict our heroes will save it. (What made Thanos so compelling was eliminating half of all life. There are still stories after that, so his initial victory made great narrative sense.) OK, Celestials are now a thing to worry about? But the galactic screw-ups, the Guardians of the Galaxy, took down a Celestial so...how really hard can it be? The fact that Circe, one of the least powerful of the Eternals, took down the Celestial and there was nothing metaphorical about her power...it just kind of...yeah.

Left me chilly.

By any objective standards, the MCU has kicked DC's butt. Batman is compelling, but Superman is not cinematic, unless you find a way to make him Not-Superman. I mean, he's good and all-powerful. Batman shares with the MCU heroes a certain set of flaws and fallibilities that make for better cinema, which is why we get pretty good Batman moves and shit like the Justice League.

It is the small bore humanity and humor that makes the MCU hum. The Galaga joke in The Avengers; whatever riff Robert Downey, Jr. rips off; Tom Holland's endearingly dorky Peter Parker; the outright hilarity of Thor: Ragnarok - a lighthearted romp about the end of a world. 

The multiverse suggests narratives so huge and multitudinous that it drains them of meaning and emotion. Emotion is why the MCU took over the multiplexs. Every move can dazzle with CGI, but the sagas of Steve Rogers, Bruce Banner, Tony Stark and Natasha Romanov were ultimately human stories. For all the apocalyptic scale of Infinity War and Endgame, it was the emotional beats that made it work.

If we are now headed for a "cinematic universe" where if "earth" gets destroyed, we know there is another "earth" in a different, parallel universe, we are headed for a set of stories empty of human stakes and human meaning. 

I can understand why Disney would want to keep expanding outwards and outwards, creating more "IP" cornering more of the global market. I fear, however, the MCU could grow colder as it grows more vast. Ultimately, it would die out with a sputtering irrelevancy, like the last dying star.

I honestly hope I'm wrong, but if The Eternals is a harbinger of what's to come, I fear I'm not.

Infrastructure Week!

 At long last, "Infrastructure Week" - a running a joke during the Trump years - has come to pass. It remains to be seen whether Manchinema will act on BBB absent the threat of their infrastructure bill not passing the House. But it always seemed at least a little bit of an empty threat. The BIB is a good bill and should be passed and signed because it's a good bill. It budgets $110B to repair existing roads and bridges, $66B to boost rail, $55B to replace lead drinking water pipe, and $60B to improve the electrical grid and access to broadband internet. It also includes $50B to deal with climate crises.

Sadly, making a bipartisan bill meant reducing or eliminating tax increases on the wealthy. This could make the bill slightly inflationary, but I doubt seriously if we will still be talking about inflation in 6-9 months time. Also, taxing the rich has to happen. At some point, we have to address rampaging inequality and taxation is the clearest path to do so.

Still, this is good news, providing we get a half-way decent BBB bill in the next few weeks.

Friday, November 5, 2021

It IS Good News!

 John Cole wonders if economic good news is, in fact, good news. Economics seems to be a field especially fraught with very smart people who fall into confirmation bias, despite pretensions of objectivity. The Inflation Debate has seemed pretty silly to me, as it does to Cole. We just has a massive contraction. After a contraction, you have an expansion, especially since the contraction was not caused by a fundamental weakness in the economy (say a housing bubble), but a global pandemic.

Today's robust job numbers are excellent news, and should these trends continue even a little bit, we should see a more robust economy in the spring of 2022. If we can keep the damned pandemic at bay, that should mean things will be getting much better by the summer.

The so-called collapse in Democratic support on Tuesday is really just some dispirited Democratic leaning voters staying home. Covid came roaring back, the economy seems weird, kids still have to wear masks in school... If we put much of that in the past by the spring - it takes a few months for good news to cement itself - Democrats should be in a stronger position next fall.

It really all comes down to Covid. 

Laws Are For Little People

 This piece is just <chef's kiss>. It's pretty long, so let me summarize. The DC police lodge - basically a social club for all the police unions in the capitol - started selling inscribed bottles of Jack Daniels for a huge mark-up. They made a ton of money off it, and it was startlingly illegal.

The conduct of police unions is problematic in the extreme. Some of the actions of teacher's unions (disclosure: there are no unions in private schools) during the pandemic have been unnecessary. Yet, workers need the protection of unions against things like a Trumpist purge of the public sector jobs or exploitive working conditions in the private sector.

Yglesias yesterday proposed using robotic cameras to enforce minor traffic laws to stop racially motivated in-person stops. On the surface, this seems smart, though the parameters of when they would issue a ticket would be critically important. 46 in a 35? When is a rolling stop a stop? In what neighborhoods will the cameras be placed? Just because a technological solution seems cleaner doesn't mean it's better. As Ferguson, Missouri taught us, Black and Brown communities can be exploited as cash cows for municipal governments. 

But reining in cops - especially those protected by unions who themselves are capable of the sort of criminal behavior that would be leverage against a poor person - seems an imperative.

Thursday, November 4, 2021

Ding, Ding, Ding

 We have a winner!

Schools

 Jon Chait writes about his priors, like so many others analyzing Tuesday's election. Chait has been writing about illiberal leftism for a while, and though I share many of his concerns, I don't know if his article really advances anything valuable.

Yes, I do believe that there are certain aspects of anti-racist teaching that are reductive and counterproductive. There can be a certain aspect of rubbing a dog's nose in its own poop - or in fact another dog's poop - to the pedagogy surrounding DEI education. Doesn't work for dogs, won't work for kids.

However, most of this is cherry picked nonsense. Far more dangerous is the trend on the Right to ban books and phrases from being taught in school. Chait will no doubt note this in subsequent columns, and there is a truth to the idea that you can only affect the actions of your partisans. It's pointless to wait for the GOP to not be awful on this stuff; being awful on this stuff is their key to winning elections.

I spoke with an old, rich White guy the other day. He was thrilled that Youngkin had won in Virginia. He decried the teaching of CRT, even as he acknowledged that CRT was not really being taught in schools. (He went on to note that he had many Black friends. I mean...)

On the one hand, equating a law school theory with basic DEI teaching is bullshit. It is thinly veiled racial panic. "Please don't make me feel uncomfortable about my dad/granddad/great uncle." On the other, it's clear that efforts to teach responsibly on issues of race are going to be used as a cudgel by Republicans to re-elect neo-fascists who support Trump enough to imperil American democracy. On the other other hand, no matter what happens, Republicans are going to call any efforts to teach legitimate American history as making White kids hate themselves. 

Apparently, when I teach that Thomas Jefferson was an amazing humanist and advocate for democracy, but that he built that democratic humanism on a foundation that explicitly denied the equal humanity of Blacks and Native Americans, I'm making White kids feel bad about themselves?

Wednesday, November 3, 2021

Bummer

 It obviously doesn't matter to me personally who the governor of Virginia is. There are a lot of reasons why a Republican won. As I said the other day, this election is really just going to prove everyone's priors.

The sad part is that we are now going to get 12 straight months of Republicans harping on Critical Race Theory being taught to 7 year olds, which is of course bullshit. If we can take some solace in last night's results, it's that the GOP will now promptly overdo it on the CRT nonsense.

Covid isn't gone; the economy is wonky; crime is perceived to be up; Washington seems dysfunctional (though it's not). To a certain degree ending Covid and getting the economy straightened out is simply a function of time at this point. 

For all the talk of harbingers of doom for Biden and Democrats, at this point (and there are still votes to count) Youngkin has fewer votes than Trump got in 2020 when he lost by 10 points. Off year elections are weird. However, this will hopefully kick Manchin in the arse and get him to follow through on Democratic policies. No one care how narrow the margins are in the Senate: Dems didn't vote last night and some of that was because they haven't seen the progress they hoped for.

This morning NPR was running a story on a CRT referendum in a Gilmore, CT school system. Only at the very end did they note that CRT was not being taught in public schools. If that's the sort of political coverage we can expect, I'm not sure how the Democrats can tweek their messaging apparatus.

Tuesday, November 2, 2021

Election Day

 Today is one of America's stupidest political traditions: off-year elections. Americans vote more frequently than almost any other country, and that creates weird voter fatigue. Our town votes in May for the budget. Just moronic. 

The only race anyone cares about is the Virginia governor's race. It is unexpectedly tight for a state that seemed to be trending hard towards the Democrats. On the other hand, Ralph Northam was in a tough race and won easily.

As someone said, the results of the Virginia election will simply confirm your prior beliefs about the Democratic Party. For instance, if you believe that the Democrats are feckless politicians who can't sell a narrative, anything but a blow-out win for McAuliffe will confirm that. In the unlikely event McAuliffe does win by more than 7 points, that will prove that only Dems outside DC are able to sell a narrative, or that Youngkin shows that Dems will try to slink along on anti-Trumpism for as many elections as possible.

The California recall was supposed to be close and it wasn't. By a long shot.  Hopefully Virginia shows the same trend.

Monday, November 1, 2021

Voting Their Feels

 This "analysis" of Virginia voters on the eve of their gubernatorial election is both dumb and depressing. The idea that Biden could somehow end the pandemic while facing massive vaccine hesitancy is nuts. The bigger question about "what has Biden done" is infuriating.

Let's assume Manchin gets off his fucking hobby horse and we get a BBB in the neighborhood of $1.6T. Combine that with the pandemic relief plan and the infrastructure plan and it represents a massive set of spending priorities.

Manchinema's feckless fuckery has created a narrative that Democrats can't get things done. No one who isn't a political junkie cares about the fact that it's a 50 vote margin. No one cares that they are on the verge of a massive spending bill. All they know is the narrative, and Manchinema have made that narrative. This Twitter thread from Chris Murphy adds needed perspective.

So far, the Biden Administration has

- cut child poverty in half
- negotiated the largest infrastructure bill in history
- made the biggest investment in clean energy
- funding for 1,000,000 more housing units
- cut the cost of child care by $10,000
- funded universal pre-school

Chris Murphy is very good at Twitter, but the fact that September and October has been a daily case of Lucy and the Football with Manchinema is why we are in this state.

So, to recap: we have one political party that is on the verge of a massive investment in aid to families and green energy, but can't message its way out of a wet paper bag and another party that is currently making peace with their party leader trying to overthrow American democracy.

And the second party could win a reliably Democratic governor's seat.