Can We Leave Yet?

Or...You know... Not.

We are coming up on the tenth anniversary of our war in Afghanistan.  It's the longest war in American history.  Longer than the Revolution.  Longer than Vietnam.

It's time to end it.

We got Bin Laden (update: still dead) and Al Qaeda, to the degree it exists, does not exist in Afghanistan.  So why are we there?  I'm not sure there is an answer that isn't fundamentally full of crap.

Here are three reasons to get out:

1) We have no more mission there.  Al Qaeda isn't there anymore.  Whatever the term "Taliban" means these days, it no longer means the same thing it did in 2001.  "Taliban" means anyone fighting the NATO forces there.  If there are no more NATO forces, what becomes of the "Taliban"?  Now, the Taliban as it existed was never very popular.  And while there are certain to be Islamist political parties and factions that thrive in a post-US Afghanistan, I am not at all sure that this should keep us up at night.

We will not be able to complete a "nation building" mission in 20 years.  Sorry.  Can't be done.  And if it can't be done to completion, why start it in the first place?  This isn't Iraq, where you can argue that we broke their country, so we have to help fix it.  Afghanistan was always broken.  Afghanistan is already better off now than it was in 2001.  We did enough.  Let them sort it out.

I heard an Army Captain on NPR say that if we leave now, we'll just be back in 20 years to finish the job.  Well, that's a long freaking time!  There's a lot of other stuff we can do in the next 20 years.  Let's do THAT! And if, for some reason, we do have to go back in (I don't recall us having to go back into Vietnam) we can blow up that bridge when we come to it.

2) We have no ally. Today, Krazy Karzai kame out and komplained about NATO airstrikes and night raids.  These are effective tactics against insurgents.  They are effective, because they kill insurgents and also create NEW insurgents by pissing off the population.  Business is booming, as it were.  Our presence makes Karzai unpopular, so he has to create distance between himself and the NATO forces.  I have an idea, let's give him about a 1000 miles of distance.

The Karzai regime is corrupt and doesn't especially like us.  They are not a good partner in a nation building exercise that already faces the longest of long odds.  Without a partner, without a group like the Kurds or the Japanese and German bureaucrats after World War II, you aren't going to accomplish anything of note.

3) We have no money. Right now, we are having among the stupidest conversations I can remember in Washington.  Faced with a deep and lingering recession and high unemployment and the specter of a double dip staring us in the face, the Deficit Peacocks are threatening to destroy the economy in order to gut Medicare and other programs that are necessary to keep the economy from tanking even more.

Obama should say, "You're right, we need to spend less.  I'm pulling us out of Afghanistan."  According to the Congressional Research Service, we are spending about $75 billion a year in Afghanistan.  Since 9/11, we have spent $1.283 TRILLION for military operations alone.  This does not include the costs of caring for our veterans for decades to come or other peripheral costs.  If we got out of Iraq and Afghanistan, we would be saving about $150 billion a year.

This savings, while not enough to offset the massive hole created by the Bush tax cuts, would be immediate and would not have a negative effect on the American economy and people (unlike say, cutting food stamps or health care spending).

Why are we still there?  Can anyone tell me?

Off To Read AP Exams

Tomorrow I begin my annual rite of spring: the reading of AP US exams.  It begins, as all rites of passage do, with a trial - namely air travel.  I loath air travel, the way Republican budget creators hate math.  Louisville, where we read, is about a 14 hour drive from where we live.  I drove it one year, and it was OK.  I was hoping a colleague might join me, but he runs the Summer School here and has not the time to read 800 essays over the course of a week.

If I survive the dehumanizing grind of moving by airborne cattle car, I then settle into my hotel room.  There is something profoundly awkward about middle aged adults having a roommate, especially one they've never met before.  At this point in our lives, we are used to farting in bed, peeing with the bathroom door open and laughing too loud at the TeeVee when someone gets hit in the balls on America's Funniest Home Videos.  You have to moderate your behavior somewhat.  I've had three roomies, and two were both interesting, engaging people, and the third I barely spoke to, which was fine.  Odds are some point, I'm going to wind up with some guy with borderline Aspergers, a penchant for masturbating to The View who cooks Indian food on a one burner stove in the bathroom.  It's inevitable.

The reading itself is a grind.  We read two essays, one a free response essay (Sample: Analyze the social, political and economic forces of the 1840s and early 1850s that led to the emergence of the Republican Party.) and a Document Based Question (Sample: From 1775 to 1830, many African Americans gained freedom from slavery, yet during the same period the institution of slavery expanded.  Explain why BOTH of those changes took place.  Analyze the ways that BOTH free African Americans and enslaved African Americans responded to the challenges confronting them.).  Both of those essays I read in 2009.

We train on the free response first.  In the case of the above question, which is rather obscure, few students answered it(they get a choice on the Free Response essays).  They chose the other question on British Imperial policy from 1763 to 1776.  So most of the answers were blank pages or simple restatements of the question.  At least it went fast.

The Document Based Question (or DBQ) is usually a tougher question, as you might have surmised from the question above.  This will be my fourth year and this year's question is a pretty straightforward one about the Nixon Administration's response to the issues facing America.  But the DBQ comes with a number of documents that helps provide context and evidence to help answer the question.  So the questions SHOULD be a little harder.  That question above, though, was a doozy.

This is the one chance I get every year to see a broader sample of what American high school students are learning about their national history.  Remember, these are AP students.

Some times, you get very discouraged.  There is a rote, mechanical feel to most of the good essays.  Most of the essays betray a lack of either ability, interest or training.  And every once in a while, you get one so good that you have to pass it around the table for others to read.

There is a great deal of unintentional and intentional humor in the essays, but the days are long.  The week is longer.  Frankly, if the reading was a day shorter, it would be much, much better.

But Louisville is a nice town.  There's a great Mexican restaurant within walking distance.  The Louisville Bats will be in town.  It's tough to describe how I feel about the coming week.  We NEED the money.  I LIKE the camaraderie.  I LOATH the day before the last day.  Like most things in life, it's complex.

Anyway, blogging will likely be light for the next ten days or so.  That will no doubt disappoint both of my loyal readers...

Memorial Day

The Man He Killed

by Thomas Hardy

        "Had he and I but met
        By some old ancient inn,
        We should have sat us down to wet
        Right many a nipperkin!

        "But ranged as infantry,
        And staring face to face,
        I shot at him and he at me,
        And killed him in his place.

        "I shot him dead because –
        Because he was my foe,
        Just so – my foe of course he was;
        That's clear enough; although

        "He thought he'd 'list perhaps,
        Off-hand like – just as I –
        Was out of work – had sold his traps –
        No other reason why.

        "Yes; quaint and curious war is!
        You shoot a fellow down
        You'd treat if met where any bar is,
        Or help to half-a-crown."

Graduation Day

The devolution of knowledge.

We graduate our seniors today.  It's always an ambivalent day for me.  After the AP exams conclude, the Seniors go into a vacation mode that can be quite aggravating.  Some schools have their seniors use that time to do internships or community service.  The school I used to work at sent them away for four or five days, just to clear the campus from the distraction.

We don't do that, so in some ways, by today, you just want them gone, so the underclassmen can prepare for their exams.

But then, once graduation begins and you see these young people, some of whom you remember as scared freshmen, get awards and diplomas, and you see where they are headed for college, you are reminded of the good work you did do for four years, rather than the aggravation of the past two weeks.

After 17 years, I've noticed I am having trouble remembering names of graduates when they return in a year or five.  There are just too many names, too many students to keep them all straight.  And I don't like good byes.

So, after the diplomas are handed out, and they light up the cigars that we ask them pointedly not to smoke, and I hand in my august black gown, I will likely just slip away from the happy families and the crying friends. You've done what you can for them.  And under the concept of in loco parentis, it is time to let them go.

Plus, it's hotter than hell.  I mean c'mon.

Youth Soccer

Thing One is playing in a soccer tournament this weekend.  Suburban Connecticut is of course a hot bed of Soccer Parents.  Sadly, we are becoming Soccer Parents.  I coach Thing Two in a Rec league, while Thing One plays in a travel squad.

He's just good enough to inspire hope.  Hope that despite his apparent disinterest in school, he can maybe boost his chances of getting an education by interesting a coach somewhere.

But we are also High School Coaches, in addition to being Soccer Parents.  So we know that only a very, very few kids every really make that jump.  He has dreams of being Lionel Messi, we have dreams of him playing D-III.  But we also realize how unlikely those dreams are to come true.  At the very least, we hope it helps him get into the school we work at, because we shudder to think what we would do if we had to rely on the local, underfunded public school.

I bring this up, because I finally understand how easy it is to fall into the trap of expecting great things from kids who are maybe just above average.  There's nothing wrong with being above average, in fact above average can be defined as being good.

But I get it.  And getting it has made me a better teacher, for one thing.  It helps me understand the difference between the kids expectations and the parents expectations.

And that is why we will be pushing him into the Crew program.

I smell Olympics!

Feel The Perrimomentum!

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/05/texas-governor-rick-perry-im-considering-a-presidential-run.php?ref=fpb

If he gets in, I think he wins the nomination.  And then he gets to pay for George Bush's sins, in much the same way that Dubya benefitted from fond feelings about his father.

Also, there is this.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/05/mcconnell-medicare-must-be-cut-to-raise-debt-limit.php?ref=fpa

McConnell says: Gut Medicare or we will default on the debt.

What the everloving Christ is wrong with these people?

Senate Dysfunction v 39827

Sums up the Senate nicely.

The GOP has spent the last three years turning the Senate into an abattoir of reform.  They made 60 the new 51 and basically turned unbelievable power over to noted asshats Joe Lieberman and Ben Nelson the Lesser.

Since the GOP won the House, there has been less need for them to obstruct needed legislation, like energy or fiscal policy, since what the House produces is so nuts (how many ways can you restrict abortion?) that it's been the Senate Democrats who have stopped legislation.

But one area that has become increasingly contentious has been the confirming of presidential appointments.  It used to be that the minority party would pick a few high profile examples of ideological driven nominees and make them the rally point of holding up the process.  The Party of No has simply stopped almost all nominees.  While the derailing of Godwin Liu's nomination got a lot of headlines, I can understand a certain reticence towards judicial nominations.  Those are permanent like herpes.

But it has been executive branch appointments that have really begun to slow down.  Elizabeth Warren is the poster child of this.  The President should have the right to staff his administration with people he wants, provided they are not corrupt, bonkers or nepotistic.  The minority party should be able to use the hearings to score whatever political points they want to create future fundraising letters, but ultimately, let these people serve.  Elizabeth Warren is manifestly not corrupt, bonkers or a product of nepotism.  She is a nationally renowned expert on banking abuses, and is THE perfect choice to run the Consumer Financial Protection Board.  In fact, quite a few bankers have even been won over by her, knowing that she will be impartial and rigorous.

There was growing hope that Obama would give her a recess appointment, but now that isn't going to happen.  The GOP has refused - for the first time in anyone's memory - to agree to the unanimous consent motion to adjourn the Senate.  They say it's turnabout for when the Democrats refused to adjourn the Senate from 2006-2008 to prevent Bush from making recess appointments.

Two differences.  First, Bush was a lame duck, and they worried about packing the Courts with a bunch of Liberty University Law School graduates.  Second, and more importantly, THE DEMOCRATS WERE IN THE MAJORITY.  The majority should be able to control the institution that they, you know, control.  That's what elections are for.

It is obviously a long time before 11/2012, but from this vantage point I will make a safe and a wild prediction.  Obama will win re-election and Democrats will regain the House.

But the Senate will remain tight, though I think the Democrats retain "control" of it.

If the GOP continues to prove that the Senate has reached a level of dysfunction that cannot be dealt with through usual political channels, we could finally see the needed reform that people were talking about in 2010.  The GOP takeover of the House made reform irrelevant, but if the Democrats control the White House AND the House and have a 3-5 vote majority in the Senate, maybe we will see some needed reform on issues of executive appointments and the "painless filibuster" that allows a minority of Senators who represent a small minority of the population make the US government non-functional.

And then it's ponies for everyone.

More Of This Winning/Losing Theme

Well, yeah, in a way...

So, the GOP is mulling over their loss of a reliable Republican seat in a special election.  Boehner, as usual, is the only one who makes a nod towards reality, in saying that the Ryan budget was a "small part" of the issue.  But he blames most of it on Jack Davis' Tea Party candidacy, as do most innumerate Republicans.

Look, Davis hurt Corwin more than Hochul, but likely not enough to tip the election to Corwin.  But there's some strategic merit in blaming it on Davis, because the hope is that this will discourage Teatards from jumping on the ballot to challenge the insufficiently insane pure.

When it comes to the Ryan budget itself and the overwhelmingly negative reaction it's gotten since people actually started digging into the numbers, the GOP response has been fascinating and revealing.

The standard line is that this is a messaging problem.  People don't understand the issue or how "brave" and "serious" this proposal is.  So what we need is better messaging.

Well, no.  People understand the Ryan budget just fine.  It effectively ends Medicare and shovels mountains of cash to the richest Americans in tax cuts and does nothing to balance the budget - unless you think we're headed for 2.3% unemployment.  Now, for most people this takes the form of "ends Medicare" and maybe "shovel mountains of cash to the richest Americans", I doubt they have much understanding of how nuanced a piece of crap this budget is.  But for the most part, people get it.  They know that Ryan's vouchers aren't going to cover much of anything.

But the GOP's insistence on messaging as the problem is revealing.

The GOP is truly masterful at messaging. They do a great job packaging pretty whacky ideas in ways that seem appealing.  Racism?  Law and order!  Transferring wealth to the richest?  Economic liberty!  Anti-gay bigotry? Traditional family values!

As someone over at Daily Kos noted, the GOP is usually more surefooted than this.  Usually, they would just push the tax cuts and force the spending cuts on guys like Clinton.  But their problem is that this message has run out of juice.  The tax cut argument is broken.  And the spending cuts are tougher and tougher to find.  Eventually, you have either go after cherished programs or admit the tax cut boondoggle doesn't work.

But they are so sure that they can fix this problem with "better messaging" that they are only digging themselves deeper into their hole.  Hey, have at it guys.  Here's a shovel.  Because this is the ultimate price of worshipping at Our Lady Of Perpetual Tax Cuts.

When Winning Is Losing

Yogi Bear (R-Jellystone)

When the 2010 election was over, a lot of pundits noted that the really bad news for Democrats was not losing the House, but all the governor's mansions.  The thinking went that governors are the bench for presidential aspiration and so many GOP governors were winning in critical swing states that this was where the Democrats were really vulnerable.

Funny thing happened.

In those critical four swing states (Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida and Michigan) the GOP governors immediately began doing, you know, what they said they were going to do and more.  The result is that Walker of Wisconsin, Kasich of Ohio, Scott of Florida and Snyder of Michigan would all lose their election if it was held today.

Part of that is the recession.  Our own governor Malloy is not popular because he's raising taxes and cutting spending.  It's tough to be the chief executive anywhere.

But Walker faces a recall election.  One of Kasich's signature legislative accomplishments is going to a referendum where it looks certain to lose.  And Rick Scott... Holy crap.

Quinnipiac polled Floridians on how they feel about Scott a scant five months after he took over. Only 29% think he's doing a good job.  Given the widely circulated belief that a Republican will ALWAYS have 27% support no matter if he ate a baby with kitten sauce on TV while preempting American Idol, this means that nobody really like this guy.

PPP polled the people of Ohio and Kasich - who undertook a slightly less confrontational version of the Walker plan for his state employees - has a 33% approval rating.  PPP went also went on to ask how people would vote if they could have a do-over of the 2010 election.  This time, Strickland beats Kasich 59-34.

Walker, ironically, does a little better.  He's polling at 43% favorable, 57% unfavorable.  Maybe Rasmussen pushed leaners, but I've never seen a poll with zero undecided.  PPP has him at 43% favorable, 54% unfavorable.  They also polled the recall question: 50% favor, 47% oppose.  We'll see if he can recover any between now and when he's eligible to be recalled, but it's not like he's winning any new friends.

On the question of whether to have a Democratic State Senate or a Republican one, the numbers are also pretty similar: 50% want Democrats to control it, 42% want Republicans to control it.

Meanwhile in Michigan, they have already begun collecting signatures for a recall petition on Rick Snyder.  You may or may not know him as the guy who reserved for the governor the right to disband municipal governments and put state run "austerity managers" in their place.

The larger point is this:  these GOP governors are the most obvious examples to many people of GOP overreach.  The Ryan/GOP budget is bad for the GOP, but it's also largely a hypothetical.  IF the GOP controls both branches, THEN Medicare will be effectively ended.  But these governors are doing actual things that people find very unpopular.  (Plus, Rick Scott is just a huge dick.)

My Glorious Wife hates it when people talk about a political party's "brand".  But this is clearly a case where the GOP brand is getting pummeled.  So far, the GOP governor of Pennsylvania has largely escaped an extreme backlash, but it can't be long now.

The result will be people who will "send a message" to their governors in November 2012, just the same way they "sent a message" to Obama in 2010.  Don't worry that the messages are inconsistent, but just be aware that the message is in the mail.

A Cultural Moment

The Most Radiant and Under-appreciated In Her Time Wife of Wives and I went to see Brandi Carlisle and Ray Lamontagne.  In part, we did this because no one cool comes to Waterbury, despite our having an awesome venue.  So when someone cool DOES come, we jump like salmon.

Both acts were awesome, but in such strikingly different ways.  Carlisle came out and was engaged with the audience, even belting out one song without benefit of amps.  And we heard it way up in the cheap seats.

She got a nice three part harmony with the audience, then did a real nice cover of an old Laura Branigan tune, Forever Young, but stripped down of its '80s fluff.  Really a tremendous set.

Ray Lamontagne came out and barely said a word to the audience the whole time.  When he did - a string broke and he didn't have a back-up - he was great.  Witty and understated.  But he clearly wanted to let his music do the talking.  He has such an expressive voice when singing, I guess he wanted that to be his communication with the audience.  You get a sense of his reticence here:

He did a funked up number that was really good, and he has the voice to do more stuff like that, but I wonder if he has the temperament.

Could have used a horn section like this one:

Anyway, it was nice to go on a "date" date.

Called It

Remember when I ran this picture

And I said some RW idiot would make a malt liquor joke?

http://gawker.com/5805445/fox-business-news-guy-sick-of-obama-chugging-40s

Well, it was just Twitter, not photoshop, because photoshop is HARD!

Your Wednesday Morning Takedown

http://www.balloon-juice.com/2011/05/24/coming-soon-to-a-theatre-near-you/#comment-2602921

There's apparently a movie about Sarah Palin coming out.  Amazingly, it's favorable to her.  OK, not amazingly, it's her reclamation project.

The commentariat at Balloon Juice have come up with titles for it.

My suggestion: Snowbilly Madison

The GOP's Not So Very Good Day

This is the sort of day the GOP is having.

OK, so we have the special election in the very Republican district of NY-26.  Kathy Hochul holds a small but surprising lead over Republican Jane Corwin.  One of the really fun parts of this campaign has been Ian Murphy's campaign on the Green Party ticket.  Murphy was the prankster who called Scott Walker pretending to be one of the Koch brothers.

The other day, apparently he "volunteered" at a Corwin phone bank.  Give a read.

Meanwhile there have been a number of "Kinsey gaffes" around today.  The Kinsey gaffe is a mistake where the truth is accidentally admitted to by someone in politics.  Very damaging, the truth.

Here's a fun one. Congressional idiot, Paul Broun - dude can't even spell Brown - says he will vote to plunge the US into default unless the Departments of Education and Energy are abolished.  Yes, as we enter the 21st century, it is important that we under-educate our citizens and keep them dependent on foreign oil.  I mean, if they are educated, they might not approve of more wars in the Middle East.  And we can't have THAT now, can we precious!

Here's another one!  Evilest member of the GOP leadership Eric Cantor refuses to pony up emergency funding for the victims of the Joplin tornado unless cuts are made elsewhere.  I have a suggestion, let's cut Congressional leadership pay for starters.  People are dead, dying, injured, maimed and thousands of others have lost almost everything.  And this colossal douchecanoe wants to quibble over funding.  Funny, he voted for the Bush tax cuts, the Iraq war and all the supplementals that paid for that.  But screw over the people of Missouri who lost their neighbors and neighborhoods.

This one REALLY takes the cake. Yet another conservative jackass, Rob Woodall from Georgia's 7th district, decides to double down on dumb.  At a town hall, several constituents noted that ending Medicare through the Ryan plan that Woodall voted for would create extraordinary stresses on both the elderly and their children.  Here's the money quote:

Woodall suggested that the woman concerned about vouchers might find the type of health care system she and her children approve of in Canada or another industrialized nation.

"If you want a socialized health care program, there are lots of places to find that," he said. "But, for your children's sake, I beg you: There aren't many places to find the freedom to succeed by the sweat of your brow like we have here."

Translation: Get out of my country you greedy old fart!  Also, too, FREEDOM!

These stories are such a perfect distillation of the sociopathy at the heart of the GOP.  Screw education!  Screw energy policy!  Screw disaster victims!  Screw the elderly and anyone who lives long enough to become elderly!

What's really important is that we give massive tax breaks to the wealthy and continue to fund endless wars.  Oh, wait, no, what's important is "freedom".  The freedom to be poor.  The freedom to work for whatever the titans of industry want to pay you.

William F. Buckley wanted to roll back the Great Society.  These crazy bastards want to roll back the 20th century.

Oh, one other thing that happened today.  Chrysler paid off its bailout.  Remember how unpopular that was?

UPDATE: Hochul won.  Obama won 46% of the vote in that district.  Her margin above 46% will give us a rough estimate of how painful the screwing around with Medicare is going to be for the GOP.

Brilliant!

This man's grandpappy was a Democrat.  He is not.

Zell Miller will be the co-chair of Newt Gingrich's already failing campaign for president.

When "Give'em Hell Zell" was a Democrat, he was a fiery populist.  But as the South slipped deeper and deeper into the Republican column, he became more and more irrelevant.  As a Democrat-who-supports-Bush, he was a novelty act.  Now he's just another Southern Fried Joke.

Seriously, Newt Gingrich?

Election Day In Upstate New York

NY-26 is having a special election to replace Chris Lee, whom we all remember as Saruman Count Dooku that guy who solicited sex off Craigslist.

NY-26 is about as Republican a district that you can find in New York state.  And it looks like the Democrat, Kathy Hochul, is going to win.  The caveat is that polling in special elections is tricky, but she has opened consistent and measurable leads.

At first, the issue was Tea Party whackadoodle Jack Davis who made it a three-way race.  This let Hochul in the door.  Then Republican Jane Corwin's staff engaged in some amateurish dirty tricks against Davis.  Part of the result is that as Davis's support dwindled, it was Hochul - not Corwin - who benefitted.

But there's another and more interesting reason for that. Hochul has made the election a referendum on the Ryan budget.  She has hit Corwin consistently and aggressively on her vote for it.

Given that your average Teatard is over 55, there wouldn't be much reason for them to care about Ryan's efforts to end Medicare as we know it.  Except maybe, just maybe, the backlash against the radical wealth redistribution present in Ryan's budget is enough to upset everyone.

If Hochul does indeed win, the effect on the Senate vote on the Ryan budget will be interesting.  Scott Brown looks to be running away from his earlier support.  Olympia Snowe is in a tight spot, as she is sure to have a Tea Party challenger anyway.

Ryan's plan was always an ugly, naked assault on the basic social contract in America.  People in DC, including many Congressional Democrats, couldn't see that.

Maybe if Hochul wins the special tonight, they will see it.