Slow Progress

Crazy fiscal kung fu skilz.

http://www.balloon-juice.com/2012/11/29/revision-of-labor/

The rule of thumb is that when you enter a recession, the metrics underestimate the severity of the decline.  That was certainly true of 2008-9.  But they also underestimate the pace of the recovery.

We are seeing upward revisions to the economic numbers, consumer confidence is rising and jobless claims are down.

I am not especially worried about the fiscal cliff - BECAUSE IT'S NOT A FISCAL CLIFF!  Going "over the cliff" would be AWESOME for the federal government's bottom line.  Deficits be gone!

The problem with the "cliff" is that it's really an Austerity Bomb.

Except it's not that either.

The austerity that will come with the rolling over of the calender will not take place all at once.  Taxes will go up immediately, spending will get slashed immediately, but the effect of those austerity measures won't be felt for weeks or months.

This is why the Democrats are fine "going over the cliff".  It completely changes the negotiation calculus, from the Norquist pledge to where the pressure will fall.  If the GOP holds tax cuts for the middle class hostage in order to win additional tax cuts for the rich, they will get hammered.  The smart ones know this.  This is why they are desperately flogging Romney's tax plan now.  It's a non-starter, of course.  Romney lost and not be a little.  That vision was rejected.

But the GOP leaders must know that once January 1st rolls around, the pressure will be on them to approve the tax cuts for everyone, but not the additional cuts for the rich.

The only caveat on the Democratic side is that the recovery - while strengthening - is still weak by historical standards.  In large part this is because of austerity in Europe that has tipped them back into a recession.  If the austerity bomb finally has an impact here, that would tip things back into recession and ruin the Democrats' hope for a long term hold on the national offices.

But all things considered, a good economic report like this one helps strengthen the Democrats hand even more.

Things White People Don't Like

Talkingpoints Memo has run an really interesting series of letters from voters who turned from the GOP because all the "racist dogwhistling" that went on was not only audible to the essential GOP cracker demographic, but to minorities as well.

Have a read.

It started with this observation:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/11/wham_bam_thank_you_mitt_1.php

Then this point was made:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/11/reaping_the_whirlwind_1.php

And then this conclusion:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/11/it_was_the_email_from.php

It's an interesting thread.

The Gift That Keeps On Giving

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/11/generation-d-americas-liberal-future.html

Interesting piece from Chait, as usual.

But I think he leaves out two things.

First, the Baby Boom generation is - I think - slightly more conservative than liberal.  They grew up with Vietnam and social spending on blah people, and came to blame both on liberals.  Ironically, they don't blame noted liberal LBJ for getting us into Vietnam, but rather the dirty hippies who caused us to lose the war, by not shaving and having sex to Joan Baez albums.  The experience of working class Boomers who saw "their money going to those people" was what created the "Reagan Democrat" experience.  I think there is something of this in the abortion/drugs/ fear of ghey people social issues, too.

I'm not a Millennial, I'm Gen X, but I certainly hate the Boomers.  Anything they are for, I'm against, as a rule of thumb.

Secondly, there is He Who Shall Not Be Named.  Not Voldemort, George W. Bush.  The generation that came of political age in the last ten to twenty years is going to be seared by their memory of C-Plus Augustus, by Iraq, by Katrina, by the Homeland Security state.  Bush helped create a generation of liberals, if the trend Chait observes is correct.

Yes, race is a part of this, as Millennials are swarthier than earlier generations.  But the basic attitude towards government is changing precisely because the antipathy towards government in large swaths of the Boomer electorate was based on subliminal racial resentment.  It was not overt racism, but rather the idea that MY money was going to THOSE people.

Countries with homogeneous populations tend to have larger, more comprehensive welfare states, for the simple reason that we are perfectly content to share with PLUs (People Like Us).  We are generally NOT OK subsidizing people who we don't see as "real Americans".   We love our kid's teacher, but we choke on paying for the inner city school district's ESL program.

What the Millennial generation sees is an America that looks like them: racially diverse and racially mixed.  Everyone is a PLU, so everyone deserves help... sorry, "gifts".

So, the Millennials are breaking with the Boomers and some of Gen X in seeing America as more diverse and therefore they are more accepting of governmental solutions to societal problems.  And Dubya made conservatism look intellectually moribund and technically inept.

But if the GOP just nominates a true conservative in 2016, I'm sure they will once again ride to victory.

Nothing New Under The Sun

The GOP continues to convince itself that, by golly, they just weren't conservative enough to win in 2012.

The fiscal cliff austerity bomb lingers on the edge of the event horizon.

It continues to suck to work retail in America.

Someone without blinkers on notes that Fox News is a GOP shill.

Oh, one thing is new.  France is apparently going to recognize the Palestinian state.  Expect the more rabid neo-cons to bring up the Dreyfuss Affair in 3...2...1....

I Saw Joe Biden This Vacation

http://wonkette.com/490545/stupid-old-joe-biden-takes-thanksgiving-vacation-is-stupid

He was eating gold encrusted truffles while being carried about on a palanquin by working mothers.

True story.

Reprinted Without Permission At All

Walking Dead Liveblog

Ah, Merle...

Carol is quite the actress.  The scene with her and Rick was incredibly moving and done without words.  Very good.

I would very much like to see Michonne and Rick bring the whupass.
***
Science!

Actually, Glen can bring some whupass his own self.
***
The Governor is slicker than snot.

Oh, and sicker than snot, too.
***
The coming internal conflict with Daryl over Meryl should be interesting.

Oh good.  Crazy man alone in his house with a dead dog.  What could go wrong?
***
Glenn is going to kill him somebody.

Can't really wait for next week... Better get that grading done.

And of COURSE it's the midseason finale.

My Thanksgiving

In many ways, this was the worst Thanksgiving I can remember.

It started with Thing One getting in trouble in school.  Always awesome.

Then when we got to Nantucket, my parents were sick.  Then we got sick.  Emphatically.

Finally, today our scheduled ferry was cancelled due to high winds.  So we had to take the slower, later ferry, which meant we got home, oh, about six or seven hours later than we wanted to.  So much for getting on top of that grading.

Plus, the ferry was packed.  It was like a preppy Dunkirk.  Instead of khaki and berets it was Barbour jackets and Vineyard Vines.  You could smell the fear, desperation and imported, organically sustainable gourmet coffee in the air.

But you know what?

Who cares.

Thanksgiving is about being thankful.  As I was laying their shivering as my butt turned into Old Faithful, I came up with a Thanksgiving prayer that offered up (even though I was too sick to eat with everyone else).

Minus the preamble and other folderol it went like this:

Because we have known sickness, let us be thankful for health.
Because we have known sorrow, lets us be thankful for laughter.
Because we have known loneliness, let us be thankful for family.
And throughout the year, give us the heart and eyes to know the difference between the things we should be thankful for and the troubles we should ignore.

So Thanksgiving could have been better.

But that doesn't mean I shouldn't be thankful for every minute of it.




Minus the projectile vomiting.

The Fruits Of Repealing DADT

To be fair it is in response to this:

So either we now have the gayest army since the Ottoman Empire's Janissaries, or simply the best at making video knockoffs.

My Turn

The family is on the mend.

I have malaria.

I swear.  Malaria.

They will eat the Thanksgiving feast tonight and I will hope for leftovers tomorrow.

Thanksgiving Vignette

"Hey, Mom!  Are we having turkey for thanksgiving?"

"No, kids."

"Awwww."

"We're having a gastrointestinal illness!"

"Yay!"

History!

http://www.gingrichproductions.com/2012/11/the-very-first-americans/

Newt Gingrich, who has a PhD in history, sent out the above. In it, he calls the Pilgrims "the very first Americans".

I realize that he was talking about American Exceptionalism, religious faith, etc.

But let's unpack this.

First of all, English colonists had been living in the New World for 13 year prior to Plymouth.  And Spanish colonists had been living in Santa Fe for 12 years.

Second, it's a bit ironic that Newt - born again Catholic - lauds the Pilgrims who fled to the wilds of the New World because the Anglican church veered too close to papacy.

Third, the letter speaks glowing of people who brave great hardships to come to America with no guarantees.  Today we call those people Mexicans.

Fourth and most glaringly, there were millions of people living in the New World before Europeans started showing up.  The Pilgrims were no different than other Europeans in their contempt and murderous intent towards the Indians.  The Pilgrims committed what we would call war crimes against the Pequot Indians, burning their women and children alive in fires.

So, yes, let's take a moment to be thankful that 400 years ago, Europeans came to this continent with a host of microbial illnesses that wiped out 90% of the people already living here, so that steel and gunpowder could conquer the rest.

Deep Question

Why does my minivan's speedometer go to 160MPH?

Nihilists

http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2012/11/20/93358/121

So the GOP, having lost two elections in a row that were based at least in part on wealth inequality, having lost in the Supreme Court are now going to screw over ACA at the state level.

By not setting up exchanges, they can use a loophole in the law to prevent its implementation - perhaps -  in their states.

Again, the question becomes: What does the GOP offer America?  What is their positive agenda?

ACA was effectively a GOP idea.  That they could derail it on the bases of some Federalist clap-trap is kind of outrageous.

But it also validates the idea of a public option, which could have come in real handy about now.

Internet Geekery

Sometimes, when I'm feeling purposeless and blue, I'll just go over to HBO GO and listen to the Game of Thrones theme song.

But then I thought... YouTube!