#winning

Hugh Hewitt, stenographer for the Right, has noticed something important: everything Trump touches gets turned to shit.  Not policy, of which there is none.  Rather the direction of the West that Brexit and Trump seemed to foreshadow has turned in quite the opposite direction.

Of course, it's probably a long, long time until we can get rid of this Mango Mussolini, and he can screw things up in the short run.  However, perhaps he can cement the important values of this country simply by standing in opposition to them.

I Need A Shower And A Cigarette

Paul Waldman is not holding back.

Trapped

It is unclear at this point whether John McCain actually "mavericked" last night because of his objections to the "skinny repeal" plan or because he felt the process violated the traditions of the Senate that he defended in his speech on the Motion to Proceed.  In many ways it doesn't matter.

For seven years, the Republicans have been running around promising the moon and the stars.  This was distilled into Trump's promise to repeal Obamacare and replace it with something better, but that was basically what the GOP had been saying.  They have a way to give people what they want with less cost - both financial and "freeeeedumb!" - than those stupid Democrats.

Last night should prove (but probably won't) that they have no idea how to fulfill the vague promises they've been making.  Last night should prove (but probably won't) that they have no way to craft policy on complicated matter.  Who knew?

Skinny repeal was an cynical an exercise in legislating as I can imagine.  It was a poorly crafted bill, written on the back of a napkin behind closed doors and then rushed to a hurried vote without so much as a glance by the CBO, with the promise that it would be "fixed" in conference.  It was a bad bill and a worse process.

And it was completely unsurprising that it failed.

(I will say it was surprising HOW it failed.  I thought Capito or Heller would be the 51st vote against, and then many others would join them.  Now we have most of the Senate and most of the House with measurable votes that would strip health care from their constituents.  No wonder McCain didn't trust GOP leadership to "fix" it in conference.)

McConnell and Ryan aren't done trying to immiserate their constituents, we can be sure of that.  They will continue to flog the dead horse until the whip disintegrates in their hands.  But it's harder and harder to see how they get to 51 votes.  If I am Heller or Capito (or Portman and others) I'm trying to figure out how I can trust leadership not to leave me vulnerable with extended votes.

The GOP - especially Trumpelthinskin - will commence to making the exchanges falter and fail by depriving them of needed support.  That will make people angry, and will likely not end well for GOP officeholders, but then again, the modern Republican party is more or less an extended tantrum against the 21st century anyway.

Meanwhile, I have a mental picture of Joe Biden waking up, checking his news feed and then picking up the picture of Obama he keeps by his bedside and whispering, "This is a big fucking deal, Barack."

It's Getting Worse

One of the things you heard in those countless "What do Trump voters think now?" pieces that have flooded the intertubes since November is that "Of course Trump is shaking things up.  That's what we wanted."

Less ignorant observers of the norms and standards of governance shook their heads at this sort of thinking, like the Presidency is a floundering reality show that needs a more flamboyant lead actor to juice its ratings.  Other Trump voters would follow this up with, "He's new to government; give him a chance."

Well, at this point, all Trump has demonstrated is that he remains manifestly unfit to be president.  What's more, his behavior is getting worse, not better.  The half-baked Twitterendum on transgender service members is a great example.  Whatever support he might have garnered by relying on cover from the Pentagon and building coalitions in Congress was squandered by the fact that Trump is getting hammered and wants to throw red meat to his base and the Talibangelicals that constitute that base wanted their hate rewarded.

His hiring of Scaramucci - a parody of a Long Island stock market dudebro, what someone called the personification of a double-parked BMW - represents a doubling-down on his aggressive, dominance fueled political style.  The same can be said of his hazing of Jeff Sessions, in that it demonstrates his basic lack of human decency and his need for soothing pledges of personal loyalty, as opposed to respecting the norms of his office.

Everything we are seeing suggests the following:

- Trump remains as out of his depth as he did on January 20th.
- He is incapable of growing into the office.
- The scandals around him are real and growing tighter around him.
- As those scandals grow, he will lash out impulsively at any target that is handy.
- This will cause him to lose allies, one by one, until he is more paranoid and isolated than Nixon was.
- He has access to the nuclear codes.

Thanks a fucking ton, Republicans...

Not Sure Of The Landscape Here

Trump's announcement to ban transgender people from serving in the military was a typical pander to his Deplorables.  I was worried that Democrats would make this a rallying cry, because I just don't see making a priority of an issue that effects a few thousand people.  There is some merit to the criticism that Clinton got hung up on too many niche issues appealing to niche groups.

But then I look around and Joni Ernst is criticizing the ban, along with Richard Shelby, John McCain and Orrin Freaking Hatch.  Ernst is reasonably young, but a stout evangelical.  Shelby, McCain and Hatch are antediluvian relics with no political reason to oppose the ban.  I don't think Alabamans or Utahans are clamoring for transgender rights and McCain is unlikely to run again.

Does this represent a surrender by many GOP leaders on certain culture war issues?

Honestly, I'm kind of stunned by all sides of this.  Except Trump.  Him being a dick is hardly a surprise.

State By State With The Trumpsterfire

Gallup has a poll, which is nice for them, that has Trump's approval ratings in every state.

The bad news first.

Trump's overall approval rating hovers between 35-40%.  He's outperforming 40% in the following battleground states: NH, NC, FL, PA, OH, MI, WI, IA and NV.

The good news: He's under 50% in all of those states.

The better news: He's under 50% in TX, AZ, MI, MO and IN.  Right now, he's above water in the Hillbilly belt (WV, KY, TN, AR), the Confederacy (AL, SC, LA), the Great Plains (OK, KN, NE, SD, ND) and the Mountain West (MT, WY, UT, ID)...oh, and Alaska.

If Trump failed to reach 50% in a two person race, he could be faced with this outcome:a 439-99 Electoral College shellacking.

What Fresh Hell Is This...

Jon Chait is right.  The American Shitburger Act is the worst designed major policy in history.

It does not make sense as a policy; it accomplishes very little by way of improving anyone's lives beyond the few who will receive a major tax cut.  It makes the American healthcare system demonstrably more unfair and less efficient.

And it still could pass.  As Chait notes, McConnell seems to be running roughshod over the Senate Parliamentarian in crafting his legislation.  I have no idea what that even means.  If the Parliamentarian says that you need 60 votes for the bill and McConnell says 50....what happens, exactly?  I would think the courts would decide and that means it comes down to John Roberts and whether he meant what he said in that nice graduation speech he gave.

It does seem that Collins is a hard no. In fact, I could see her pulling a Jeffords at some point and becoming an independent who caucuses with the Democrats.  That would be more impactful if she could get Murkowski to join her.  That is if Blake Farenholdt doesn't shoot them first.

After that, they are talking about dragging John McCain back from his sick bed to make sure other people don't have the chance to survive cancer, too.  A lot of nice things have been said about McCain, and as someone who lost his father to cancer in the last week, I want to say, "If John McCain hauls himself back to DC to strip other people's healthcare away from them, Fuck John McCain."

We've accustomed to seeing the Republican Party as master strategists who can bend DC to their will.  Really, they are magic at making government not work.  I doubt they can get this through, but if they do....?

I don't see how Democrats don't recapture the House.

Dunkirk

We saw it on IMAX, and I recommend that version.  It's spare on dialogue, but the imagery and the concussive effect of those sound effects was powerful.  I read a review that described it as a monster movie where the monster was war, and that was very apt.

Don't wait to see it at home.  I don't care how awesome your HDTV is.

Pardon Me

I've been saying for a few weeks that eventually - once Mueller gets too close - Trump will simply start issuing pardons to people like Flynn, Kushner, Donny, Jr., and Manafort.  He will eliminate the ability of Mueller to flip these people against him.  Then, after closing down many avenues of investigation, he will fire Mueller (and likely Sessions and Rosenstein).

And there might very well be nothing we can do about it until 2018.  Even then, while Democrats might win back the House, they will not get anywhere close to winning enough seats in the Senate to remove him from office.

Once again, we are going to have to rely on Republican politicians to do the right thing by their country rather than by their party.  In other words, we are screwed.

As Chait and others note, this is an assault on the rule of law.  That idea - that the powerful are not above the law, that the law is the expression of the popular will - is the critical idea that makes democracy possible.  Without it, democracy collapses.

That's not hyperbole.

Press Fallacy

This kind of pisses me off.

There are two problems with Milbank's analysis.

First, as Linda Sanchez notes, Democrats have had an agenda.  OK, it's a fair criticism that Democrats either offer too many programs as opposed to a bumper sticker.  But the Republicans have been running on bumper stickers for years.  Guess what?  You can't govern from a bumper sticker.  Repeal and replace is easily understandable.  Get rid of the parts you hate and keep the parts you like is easy to understand, but it's not an agenda.

Democrats have both a philosophy and an agenda.  Hillary Clinton had a YUUUUGE agenda.  And every speech she made on the minimum wage or college tuition was swamped in her "goddamned emails."  Policy is booooooooring.  Horse races are fun!  Scandal is fun!  Do Democrats have an agenda?  A philosophy?  Yes, Dana Milbank.  They do.  Report on it.

Second, the negative appeal of the Republican message is that government doesn't work.  Have you ever had a government service fail you?  How many people equate the DMV with the federal government?

Democrats have the burden not only of "having an agenda" but also convincing a cynical public that the government will actually ACHIEVE that agenda.  As we've discovered, one of the flaws in the ACA is that it doesn't work WELL ENOUGH, not that publicly supported health insurance is the death of freedom.

You can promise whatever you want, but a large section of the public believes - wrongly - that all politicians lie in their promises.  That Trump lied to them doesn't bother them, because they expect to be lied to.  Democrats promising universal community college is just an empty lie, even if it's not.

The Mad King

Trump's biggest enemy might be his own weeping piehole.  Every interview turns into a piece of evidence against him.

Of course, I can't tell if it's for a criminal case or a commitment hearing.

Thanks Republicans!

Fuck Cancer

My father went to high school with John McCain.  Yesterday morning the melanoma that they cut out of him more than a dozen years ago finally took his life.  We saw it coming and yet yesterday (and for weeks and years to come) it blinded sided me from time to time.

So to the McCain family that will never read this, know that the family of an old schoolmate is pulling for you and yours.

Mitch Slapped

Adam Jentleson (No, I don't know who he is either) has a tweetstorm about Mitch McConnell.  Basically, Mitch McConnell broke the Senate and neutered individual GOP Senators in order to create a lockstep caucus so that they could win control of the Senate.  Then they could "do anything."
Now, the American Shitburger Act has demonstrated that the same levers that McConnell used to stymie Democrats and break the Senate are used against him.  Is there a more conservative friendly version of ACA possible?  Maybe, but that would require working with Democrats and listening to moderates.  That's not remotely possible.

Meanwhile, McConnell has always been a loathsome human being.  There is something uniquely repulsive about the man.  If he is not going to give his caucus victories, then what - exactly - is his usefulness?

Mmmmm. Hamburgers

Josh Barro is a Never-Trumper who has become a de facto moderate Democrat.  He still has some roots in the conservative movement, and he has some advice for Democrats who want to win elections.

It's interesting advice.

There were some lonely voices, notably Jon Chait, before the election warning Democrats about their PC problem.  Given that Chait placed his argument on the Internet, it quickly got heated and dumb.  He agrees, of course, with Barro's argument that the problem Democrats have is that they are self-righteous prigs.  I think Barro's argument about hamburgers is bizarre, but the overall critique of the Left being obsessed with offensive behavior has some ring of truth to it.

I voted for one Republican in my lifetime, and it was Bush in 1988.  I had waded through the PC-wars of the late '80s and found them stifling, judgmental and unproductive.  That had at least some impact on my vote.  I didn't vote for Bush some much as I voted against Dukakis and the modern PC culture.

Now, having said that, there are certain things worth fighting against.  As Barro says,

It's possible to stake out the ground that, for example, characterizing Mexican immigrants as a mass of criminals and rapists is wrong, but what you wear at Halloween isn't really a concern so long as you're not in blackface. It's possible to push for the policies you think are important on climate change without making people feel guilty about their hamburgers.

Now, I can hear the arguments that if someone appropriates someones culture as a costume or as a party, that's disrespectful.  College students don't carry about Hindu spring festivals, they just like bright colors.  The problem I think the Left has created for itself is that it has equated emotions with acts.  If something or someone makes you feel bad, tell them why.  If they continue to do that, they are an asshole.  Don't hang out with assholes.  If someone punches you in the face, call the cops.

To be a liberal means on some level to value human liberty.  American liberals came to see inequality as the hallmark of a lack of freedom.  Jim Crow was an easy expression of inequality leading to a lack for freedom, but so is unequal pay, marriage inequality or excessive corporate influence on politics.  There is very little reason for liberal to give up their positions for a more equal America.  Those positions are popular, not universally so, but popular nonetheless.

You can never convince someone to change their mind by labeling them.  You can't make anti-racists by calling people racist.  Leftists and some liberals have thrown up their arms in exasperation over the Basket of Deplorables.  Look, you don't want the Deplorable vote.  You want the person who might vote for Obama, but couldn't vote for Clinton.  Clinton got hammered from the Left for being a "Neoliberal shill" but also from the Right for being an avatar of PC finger wagging.

I don't know if the "campus Left" and "online Left" will allow much deviation from the PC line, but there has to be a way to repackage the goals of a "kinder, gentler America" into something that appeals to voters who might like your policies but not your hectoring over gender.

"Liberty and justice for all" feels like a nice place to start.  The Right has effectively stolen the idea of liberty from liberals, but liberals need to steal it back by arguing that "the law in its majesty allows the rich and the poor equal freedom to sleep under bridges" is a piss poor form of freedom.  If you are  a slave to your paycheck, are you free?  Thomas Jefferson didn't think so, why should we?

The "justice for all" in an obvious call out to BLM and criminal justice reform, especially on drugs.  I've become convinced that until we fix our drug laws, we will continue to plunge both our country and Mexico into crime and violence that needn't otherwise exist.  "Justice for all" is equality before the law, and that not only means the poor are treated fairly, it means the rich and powerful are help to account.

The Democrats probably could continue to inch leftwards on economic issues, but they have to adopt a new tone when it comes to political correctness, one that focuses on the freedom to criticize and not the license to silence.  I doubt it will be that easy, but it is clear that culture is the divide Democrats have to cross.

Can't Nobody Do Nothing?

So the American Shitburger Act has apparently finally, really, no takebacks, completely died.  This parrot is deceased!

So here is where the modern GOP finds itself.

- They transformed themselves into the Party of No during Obama's presidency.  From the very first, they engaged in obstruction and delay to prevent him from achieving his goals.  This - combined with the lingering effects of the Little Depression - led to Republican gains in 2010.  Being the Party of No worked for them for 7 years.

- Being the Party of No does not lend itself to having ideas or doing stuff.  They can rollback certain elements of Obama's presidency at the margins, but they can't produce a positive, proactive agenda of their own.

- Or rather they can, but it is massively unpopular.  The institutional GOP cares about reducing the tax and regulatory burden on the rich.  That's it.  And that is unpopular.  It is likely that the only achievement of this Congress will be cutting taxes for the rich, and even than seems iffy, given the Byrd Rule.

Mitch McConnell is the most important figure in the Senate over the past forty years, because he has fundamentally changed/broken the Senate as an institution.  But being a bombthrower typically does not make you a good carpenter.

Nice job, Republicans.