The firehose of shit coming through the American political system in the Age of Trump is impossible to properly process.
But here's an attempt: Roy Moore doesn't believe that women should run for office, and he's really not so sure about the whole women voting thing.
Nevertheless, Roy Moore will win a majority of white women's votes in Alabama. Because Baby Jeebus.
Thursday, November 30, 2017
Deck Chairs
Rumors swirl that there will be a shakeup in the Trump National Security team. Tillerson is out. Pompeo moves from CIA to State. Tom Cotton moves to CIA.
Two things I notice.
First, essentially replacing Tillerson with Cotton makes for a lot more Iran Hawks in the NatSec team. I'm coming to worry that Trump will start a war to boost his flagging ratings. I hope (?) that enough voices like McMaster, Mattis and Kelly have impressed upon him the dangers of attacking North Korea. The dead would top a million human souls. Given Trump's bellicose anti-Islamic bigotry, strikes against Iran makes "sense" in the narrow meaning of "likely to happen." Of course, any conflict with Iran will be a disaster. It will legitimize the rule of men like Khamenei and delegitimatize the reformist politics of men like Rouhani. It will spike oil prices as the Straits of Hormuz will be closed. It will reignite sectarian warfare across the Middle East. Still, replacing Tillerson with Cotton makes it all more likely.
Second, Tillerson went from a "respected" CEO of one of the largest corporations in the world to becoming a whipping boy for a "moron." He is a Republican in the sense that he is a rich, old white guy who doesn't like it when the gubmint says he can't dump pollutants in the groundwater. He is not, however, a partisan creature.
I look forward to his tell-all tour.
Two things I notice.
First, essentially replacing Tillerson with Cotton makes for a lot more Iran Hawks in the NatSec team. I'm coming to worry that Trump will start a war to boost his flagging ratings. I hope (?) that enough voices like McMaster, Mattis and Kelly have impressed upon him the dangers of attacking North Korea. The dead would top a million human souls. Given Trump's bellicose anti-Islamic bigotry, strikes against Iran makes "sense" in the narrow meaning of "likely to happen." Of course, any conflict with Iran will be a disaster. It will legitimize the rule of men like Khamenei and delegitimatize the reformist politics of men like Rouhani. It will spike oil prices as the Straits of Hormuz will be closed. It will reignite sectarian warfare across the Middle East. Still, replacing Tillerson with Cotton makes it all more likely.
Second, Tillerson went from a "respected" CEO of one of the largest corporations in the world to becoming a whipping boy for a "moron." He is a Republican in the sense that he is a rich, old white guy who doesn't like it when the gubmint says he can't dump pollutants in the groundwater. He is not, however, a partisan creature.
I look forward to his tell-all tour.
No Confidence
Ezra Klein makes the case that impeachment is whatever Congress says it should be - that's what the Framers intended. I think he's right. The necessity for a 2/3rds vote in the Senate necessitates that it's not a simple vote of no-confidence. It has to be manifest that the President should be removed from office.
What is unquestionably clear is that Trump has absolutely zero business being President. It was clear before the election, but the Republican electorate decided that beating Hillary was more important than having a president who wasn't mentally, emotionally and temperamentally unfit to hold the office.
I think Klein is right up and down the argument.
I also think not enough Congressional Republicans have the spine God gave an earthworm.
What is unquestionably clear is that Trump has absolutely zero business being President. It was clear before the election, but the Republican electorate decided that beating Hillary was more important than having a president who wasn't mentally, emotionally and temperamentally unfit to hold the office.
I think Klein is right up and down the argument.
I also think not enough Congressional Republicans have the spine God gave an earthworm.
Wednesday, November 29, 2017
Normalizing Predation
Paradoxically, I think that all the allegations that are coming out against various male members of the media and Congress are actually increasing the odds that Roy Moore becomes a United States Senator.
Every time a new report comes out that Matt Lauer or Garrison Keillor or whomever was a creepy perv who used power for sexual exploitation, it actually tends to normalize that behavior. I'm not saying that this is a reason not to come forward with these allegations, but if you are being told, "Don't vote for Roy Moore, he preys on young women." Well, who isn't preying on young women? Now, obviously, what Roy Moore did is categorically worse than anything these other guys did. He was preying on under-aged girls. That's a category difference.
But, if you're a Republican from Alabama, and you were wavering in your support for Moore, because he was an awful human being...well, who are we to judge? Aren't we all sinners? Isn't the continued presence of Al Franken and John Conyers just proof that what Roy Moore did isn't disqualifying? Again, that's bullshit logic. Moore preyed on a 14 year old. But it doesn't have to make sense to work.
I was really hopeful that Republican women in the suburbs of Birmingham, Mobile, Montgomery and Hunstville would gag on Moore. That they would turn away from a guy who would molest children. But the drumbeat of revelations - and what is more, revelations that target media and Democrats - will allow them to sigh regretfully and vote for the predator.
Just like they did last November.
Every time a new report comes out that Matt Lauer or Garrison Keillor or whomever was a creepy perv who used power for sexual exploitation, it actually tends to normalize that behavior. I'm not saying that this is a reason not to come forward with these allegations, but if you are being told, "Don't vote for Roy Moore, he preys on young women." Well, who isn't preying on young women? Now, obviously, what Roy Moore did is categorically worse than anything these other guys did. He was preying on under-aged girls. That's a category difference.
But, if you're a Republican from Alabama, and you were wavering in your support for Moore, because he was an awful human being...well, who are we to judge? Aren't we all sinners? Isn't the continued presence of Al Franken and John Conyers just proof that what Roy Moore did isn't disqualifying? Again, that's bullshit logic. Moore preyed on a 14 year old. But it doesn't have to make sense to work.
I was really hopeful that Republican women in the suburbs of Birmingham, Mobile, Montgomery and Hunstville would gag on Moore. That they would turn away from a guy who would molest children. But the drumbeat of revelations - and what is more, revelations that target media and Democrats - will allow them to sigh regretfully and vote for the predator.
Just like they did last November.
Meltdown
Trump has been even more unhinged than usual on Twitter recently. He's also apparently divorced from reality. This morning, he retweeted a video from a British hate group. His response to Matt Lauer's firing is to change the subject to the fact that NBC runs stories he doesn't like ("fake news").
I think Donald Trump is a profoundly stupid man, because he thinks he's smart. One of the first things a smart person realizes is how much she doesn't know. But I also think he's a compendium of psychological maladies, and the stress of the presidency seems to be exacerbating them.
Thanks, Republicans. Hope you enjoy your tax cuts for billionaires.
I think Donald Trump is a profoundly stupid man, because he thinks he's smart. One of the first things a smart person realizes is how much she doesn't know. But I also think he's a compendium of psychological maladies, and the stress of the presidency seems to be exacerbating them.
Thanks, Republicans. Hope you enjoy your tax cuts for billionaires.
Tuesday, November 28, 2017
Silver Lining
If the Kick America In The Nuts Act of 2017 actually passes, I really like this take. Glass half full, bishes.
Keeping Score
So, in the last few days...
- Trump kind of endorsed a child predator for Alabama Senate.
- Kellyanne Conway violated the Hatch Act.
- Wall Street Watchdog CFPB is under assault.
- Rex Tillerson continues to dismantle the entire State Department.
- Trump dropped a racial slur about Native Americans at a ceremony to honor Native Americans.
- The Republicans continue to march bravely into the late 19th century with their tax bill.
- The NY Times is normalizing Nazis.
How the hell will our system of government survive another three years of this shitshow?
I mean, we barely survived Obama wearing a tan suit.
- Trump kind of endorsed a child predator for Alabama Senate.
- Kellyanne Conway violated the Hatch Act.
- Wall Street Watchdog CFPB is under assault.
- Rex Tillerson continues to dismantle the entire State Department.
- Trump dropped a racial slur about Native Americans at a ceremony to honor Native Americans.
- The Republicans continue to march bravely into the late 19th century with their tax bill.
- The NY Times is normalizing Nazis.
How the hell will our system of government survive another three years of this shitshow?
I mean, we barely survived Obama wearing a tan suit.
Happy Christmas Season
This came on the Twitter:
Christmas is about believing what a woman said about her sex life.
Christmas is about a family finding safety as refugees.
Christmas is about a child in need receiving support from the wealthy.
Christmas is about God identifying himself with the marginalized not the powerful.
Christmas is about a family finding safety as refugees.
Christmas is about a child in need receiving support from the wealthy.
Christmas is about God identifying himself with the marginalized not the powerful.
Monday, November 27, 2017
The Week Of Whip Counts
The Kick America In The Nuts Act of 2017 could come to a vote as soon as this week. Turns out this bill will immisserate the poor even more than we thought. Somewhere, Paul Ryan just became semi-erect.
Since it is a truly atrocious bill - a Democratic attack ad in legislative form - all 48 Democrats are opposed. That means three Republicans need to flip to stop this from happening. So who should we keep an eye on?
First there are the "Moderates." Susan Collins is a likely no vote. Lisa Murkowski remains in play. In their avarice to slash taxes on the rich, the Republicans have also found a way to cripple Obamacare's premium structures. However, that could put Murkowski in the "No" column.
Second, we have the "Senatorial Mandarins." John McCain has been railing against the destruction of Senatorial norms, including "regular order." This bill didn't go through regular order, so he might give it a literal thumbs down. The Mandarins also overlap with the next group: The Deficit Hawks.
The Deficit Hawks are the most interesting group. For the most part, the GOP doesn't give two shits about deficits, when it comes to cutting taxes on rich people. They care about them only when it comes time for Democrats to enact social spending. However, this bill is a fiscal nightmare, to the degree that some quite conservative members have a problem with it. Koch entity Ron Johnson is currently opposed, and Jerry Moran of Kansas has expressed real doubts, since his state has seen the traumatic effects of rampant tax cutting. Kansas is a complete disaster because of precisely the sort of bill the GOP is proposing. Steve Daines or Montana has registered his disapproval. Who knows where Rand Paul stands, but presumably it's not next to a riding mower.
Finally, we have the Retirees. McCain likely fits into this group, but so do Jeff Flake and Bob Corker, who share concerns with the Mandarins and the Deficit Hawks. This really is a shitty bill, and if those two really cared about the legacy of this Congress, passing a completely terrible bill just to say that you've passed SOMETHING, might be too much for them.
Of course, if they make the plan palatable to Murkowski, Moran, Daines and Corker, with McCain and Collins voting against it and Pence breaking the tie, that still means it has to be reconciled with the House, and if it doesn't punish the poor enough, you could lose votes there, too.
The solution, of course, is to pass a much narrower band of tax cuts that mostly go to the working and middle classes, bypasses the poor and then gifts money to corporations through a corporate tax cut. The estate tax and pass through corporations don't get any cuts, and you don't cut taxes on the 1% by much at all. That bill - while also damaging to the country's fiscal situation - would by much more popular and easier to pass.
The Republican party has almost come to believe Trump's insane Twitter boasts. They think Mr. 47% of the popular vote and their gerrymandered districts constitute some mandate to do something drastic.
The great punchline of 2017 is that Trump voters are motivated by "economic anxiety" when they are really motivated by racial and status anxiety. However, the bill that the GOP is proposing could be used as a cudgel by Democrats in 2018 and 2020. It's amazing that they want to go through with it.
UPDATE: Add James Lankford to the Deficit Hawks. I'm skeptical that they will actually hold the line, but...anything that gets the Good Guys to 51.
Since it is a truly atrocious bill - a Democratic attack ad in legislative form - all 48 Democrats are opposed. That means three Republicans need to flip to stop this from happening. So who should we keep an eye on?
First there are the "Moderates." Susan Collins is a likely no vote. Lisa Murkowski remains in play. In their avarice to slash taxes on the rich, the Republicans have also found a way to cripple Obamacare's premium structures. However, that could put Murkowski in the "No" column.
Second, we have the "Senatorial Mandarins." John McCain has been railing against the destruction of Senatorial norms, including "regular order." This bill didn't go through regular order, so he might give it a literal thumbs down. The Mandarins also overlap with the next group: The Deficit Hawks.
The Deficit Hawks are the most interesting group. For the most part, the GOP doesn't give two shits about deficits, when it comes to cutting taxes on rich people. They care about them only when it comes time for Democrats to enact social spending. However, this bill is a fiscal nightmare, to the degree that some quite conservative members have a problem with it. Koch entity Ron Johnson is currently opposed, and Jerry Moran of Kansas has expressed real doubts, since his state has seen the traumatic effects of rampant tax cutting. Kansas is a complete disaster because of precisely the sort of bill the GOP is proposing. Steve Daines or Montana has registered his disapproval. Who knows where Rand Paul stands, but presumably it's not next to a riding mower.
Finally, we have the Retirees. McCain likely fits into this group, but so do Jeff Flake and Bob Corker, who share concerns with the Mandarins and the Deficit Hawks. This really is a shitty bill, and if those two really cared about the legacy of this Congress, passing a completely terrible bill just to say that you've passed SOMETHING, might be too much for them.
Of course, if they make the plan palatable to Murkowski, Moran, Daines and Corker, with McCain and Collins voting against it and Pence breaking the tie, that still means it has to be reconciled with the House, and if it doesn't punish the poor enough, you could lose votes there, too.
The solution, of course, is to pass a much narrower band of tax cuts that mostly go to the working and middle classes, bypasses the poor and then gifts money to corporations through a corporate tax cut. The estate tax and pass through corporations don't get any cuts, and you don't cut taxes on the 1% by much at all. That bill - while also damaging to the country's fiscal situation - would by much more popular and easier to pass.
The Republican party has almost come to believe Trump's insane Twitter boasts. They think Mr. 47% of the popular vote and their gerrymandered districts constitute some mandate to do something drastic.
The great punchline of 2017 is that Trump voters are motivated by "economic anxiety" when they are really motivated by racial and status anxiety. However, the bill that the GOP is proposing could be used as a cudgel by Democrats in 2018 and 2020. It's amazing that they want to go through with it.
UPDATE: Add James Lankford to the Deficit Hawks. I'm skeptical that they will actually hold the line, but...anything that gets the Good Guys to 51.
Sunday, November 26, 2017
Saturday, November 25, 2017
If Only It Would Make A Difference
Martin Longman has flagged a basic confession about what Russia was trying to do in the 2016 election (and other elections elsewhere). This was written, apparently, a few days after the election last year. It's a Russian propagandist spiking the football about Russia's involvement in the campaign.
I do think small but solid majorities of Americans believe that Russia had a hand in electing Trump. That's one of many reasons why his approval ratings are historically low.
The problem - as always - is not the reasonable people. It's the Republicans.
Not the various mouthbreathing MAGA types who are rolling coal and stockpiling guns for the coming race war, but the average everyday Republicans who voted for Trump because he wasn't Hillary. They got played. They don't won't to hear that they got played.
So, even though we have a Russian basically laying out the early process of how they started helping Trump, including the role of Cambridge Analytical, it simply won't make a difference for the fact averse, GOP universe.
And I don't know how we correct that, because if 40-50% of the population simply doesn't care about objective facts...How does democracy work?
I do think small but solid majorities of Americans believe that Russia had a hand in electing Trump. That's one of many reasons why his approval ratings are historically low.
The problem - as always - is not the reasonable people. It's the Republicans.
Not the various mouthbreathing MAGA types who are rolling coal and stockpiling guns for the coming race war, but the average everyday Republicans who voted for Trump because he wasn't Hillary. They got played. They don't won't to hear that they got played.
So, even though we have a Russian basically laying out the early process of how they started helping Trump, including the role of Cambridge Analytical, it simply won't make a difference for the fact averse, GOP universe.
And I don't know how we correct that, because if 40-50% of the population simply doesn't care about objective facts...How does democracy work?
Friday, November 24, 2017
Well, This Is Interesting
There is some evidence that Michael Flynn has started cooperating with Robert Mueller. Flynn has always been the linchpin to the whole sordid Russia story. I was surprised when Mueller didn't ask for indictments of Flynn when he got the Grand Jury to indict Manafort. Apparently, he was simply squeezing Flynn, especially with threats to indict Flynn's son.
As a side note, it's very, very unlikely that Mueller concludes his investigations without uncovering a shitload of dirt on Trump. Trump's business model in NY real estate is crooked as hell.
What's sad is that we could've been spared the worst president since Andrew Johnson if only we had the legal resources and political desire to prosecute wealthy people for their crimes with the same vigor we go after guys selling dime bags of weed on the corner.
ADDED: It's a pretty good sign that Trump has gotten bad news, if he starts attacking black athletes in his Twitter feed.
ADDED: It's a pretty good sign that Trump has gotten bad news, if he starts attacking black athletes in his Twitter feed.
Thursday, November 23, 2017
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