Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Friday, April 30, 2021

What Is A Meaningful Democracy?

 Was America a democracy from 1877-1965? We systematically denied the vote to people who were constitutionally guaranteed a right to vote. You could argue that Jim Crow made at least part of the country undemocratic.

It is not surprising that the Neo-Calhounists in the Republican Party have also adopted anti-majoritarian policies. As this post lays out, we have a situation where the quirks and oddities of our political system tilt one way in our partisan divide. Every non-majoritarian feature of the Constitution is now an advantage for the GOP. 

Because of this, as the piece notes, the GOP is insulated from the negative consequences of being bad at government. The raging dumpster fire of Trumpistan does not matter to them electorally. Their voters will stick with them, and the system preferences their voters.

I'm don't know if we can survive ANOTHER minority presidency. The first one botched 9/11, invaded Iraq and allowed a housing bubble to form that nearly destroyed the global economy. The second one botched the pandemic, abused the powers of office and tried to launch a coup.

It would be really cool if we didn't have to worry about whether we were a democracy or not.

Thursday, April 29, 2021

The Anti-Racist Left Has A Language Problem

 The James Carville interview I flagged earlier touched a nerve in some quarters as - as is per usual on the internet - people rushed to get their hot takes in rather than try and understand what he's saying. However, his point about "faculty lounge speak" was made at a time when we have a significant piece of new scholarship on how using language centered on race can undermine programs designed to fight broader inequality. Matthew Yglesias took this a bit further and his take is worth a read.

There's a LOT to unpack in all these discussions, but I wanted to talk specifically about language, and Carville's central point about "faculty lounge speech."

I have an abiding hatred of jargon. To a certain degree, professional jargon can be helpful as a communications short cut. Military jargon is largely indecipherable, but it makes sense to say FOP as opposed to the longer Forward Observation Post. Same with doctors. And to a degree, the same with academics, as long as they are talking to other academics.

Once you try and jump to the broader population, these complicated, unwieldy, un-euphonious neologisms fall flat. Interestingly, we had Dr. Bettina Long address the school, and much of it was new and interesting in its celebration of Black Joy. I would guess that "landed" with white students. As I was listening, I was scrolling Twitter somewhat absent-mindedly and there was a thread of mostly Black people talking about how they hate the term BIPOC or Black, Indigenous and People of Color. This largely comes from the fraught significance between "Colored People" and "People of Color." 

To person not steeped in Chomsky and other forms of academic linguistics, the only difference between "Colored People" and "People of Color" is that the second one sounds weird. A knowledge of history would remind is that "Colored People" was a Jim Crow term. So "POC" is "decolonizing" language. 

Now, there are certain terms that have come out recently, that I think work well. Intersectionality is both a very important idea and also pretty clear to anyone who has been to a traffic intersection. If it was called Interfaces Across Multiple Identifiers or IAMI it would suddenly fly over the heads of most listeners.

Dr. Long ended her talk by saying that racism can only end when White people decide to end it. 

First, I wonder if that's true. We have a LOT of evidence that people naturally group together according to some sort of cultural signifier. This is the point of English and Kalla's paper. If a program is seen as helping reduce ECONOMIC inequality, people like it. Talk about RACIAL inequality and supports declines, even among Black people. Ending child poverty is great; ending poverty among "historically marginalized identifiers" polls poorly. If we could somehow miraculously end historic forms of racism I fear something else would take its place.

Second, let's assume that's true. How do we change White people? Because - as Yglesias notes - programs to address racism are not the problem, it's clothing non-racial programs in terms of racial equality that hurts their appeal. There is a segment of White America that wants to do better in race. Look at the reaction to the Chauvin verdict. You have 70% of Whites agreeing with the verdict, which means about 30% of Whites are basically cool with the extrajudicial murder or a Black man caught on camera. (I'm curious about the 7% of Blacks who disagreed with the verdict.) However, getting 54% of Republicans to agree that the verdict was correct means that the most obvious case of police brutality is sinking in even there. I doubt 54% of Republicans or 70% of Whites felt the same way about Eric Garner's death. So there's progress outside the Trumpian White Nationalist Right.

The question is "How do you build on that?" It's painfully obvious that what we are seeing is simply the fact that a ubiquity of cameras has exposed what Black America has always known and, in the words of Bluegrass musician Tyler Childers, is "shoving its roots through the screens in our face." There is an inflection moment happening. How do you leverage that?

I just don't think you do that by erecting walls of jargon to separate the Savvy from the Unwashed. There actually IS a degree of virtue signaling going on when you bring very technical, largely academic terms into public discourse. I know the shibboleth, you do not. 

Back when Black Lives Matter began, Bernie Sanders stepped on a rake in 2016 when he replied with "All Lives Matter." In some ways, his presidential aspirations died right there. As activists explained, the reason Black lives matter is BECAUSE ALL lives should matter and they currently don't. It's a reasonably effective way of engaging people. It did, however, create an instant barrier that people like Sanders bumped into. Sanders, who was willing to engage, did engage, and was wiser for it. (It's not like, coming from Vermont, he had a lot of experience navigating issues of race.) It's similar to the idea of White Privilege. That concept is a really good challenge for people already interested in engaging with this issue.

I enjoy language, that's why I hate jargon. I feel I'm reasonably adept at language, and I don't know how to solve this dilemma. How do you reach the White boy in a way that simultaneously challenges him and supports his growth? The walls of jargon are not going to help. 

Simply talking about the "Golden Rule" is insufficient for the activists and academics who are pushing for change on these issues, but something as simple as that could work. First, you teach people compassion and empathy and a sense of justice, while simultaneously teaching the truth about the past. I've found students remarkably receptive to the idea that almost all White people in the past held some sort of racist idea. In fact, not being racist by today's standards was a huge outlier. 

As you point out how the Civil Rights movement used universal American values to frame their struggle, you are pointing out how to reach White Americans today. What the earlier - and more successful - part of the Civil Rights movement did was express their demands in terms of the American creed. The naked violence of Jim Crow was excused by White America for a century; Black America made them look, held up their own values and asked them to compare the two. That worked to change America.

Current scholarship and activism point out that this was not enough. (Again, I don't think we eradicate prejudice from human character. I'm pessimistic that way.) In creating laudable goals, they have also created barriers in language and pedagogy that makes it harder to engage precisely those White boys who are reachable (not all will be).

I don't think I have the answer, in fact, I know I don't. I worry that we will lose this inflection point in history. Every movement towards a more progressive, more just America meets its own backlash. In nakedly symbolic terms, every Obama creates its own Trump. We already see the frantic Fox News/Republican attacks on "wokeness," because that's all they've got...and it works.

It feels wrong to only offer an observation and not a solution, but that's the best I can do right now.

Wednesday, April 28, 2021

Grand Old Prevaricators

 The GOP's platform of outrage is built upon lies upon lies.

Not sure how you go about governing with them.

Tuesday, April 27, 2021

Is He Wrong?

 James Carville is a bit of a buffoon who won with a remarkably adept politician in a three way race. However, I don't that means he's necessarily wrong about Democrats falling into jargony "faculty lounge" speak. I'm part of those faculty conversations and terms like Latinx don't make a damned bit of sense to me, any more than they do to Hispanics.

Biden has largely avoided some of that - or more accurately no one cares because most people are simply happy that he's doing a decent job and not tweeting out nonsense at 2AM. 

Still, going forward, we need to be more accommodating of the Joe Manchins in the party.

UPDATE: Josh Marshall has a more subtle take on it.

No Rules

 Reading this report, it's tricky to put people into tidy boxes. On the one hand: Trump supporting Floridians basically threaten to fire teachers who get vaccinated. That's...not an exaggeration, and it's very much in keeping with the current trajectory of American "Conservatism."

Then you get this passage:

The Centner Academy opened in 2019 for students in prekindergarten through eighth grade, promoting itself as a “happiness school” focused on children’s mindfulness and emotional intelligence. The school prominently advertises on its website support for “medical freedom from mandated vaccines.”

Ms. Centner founded the school with her husband, David Centner, a technology and electronic highway tolling entrepreneur. 

So we have anti-vaxxers and a tech-bro entrepreneur both somehow married to a school mission that sounds like it would fit perfectly into a Berkeley neighborhood. So I'm reading this "Uh huh. Anti-vaxxers...got it...Trumpists...sure...tech-bro embracing regressive fees...got it...mindfulness and emotional intelligence? What?"

As a school, we are looking at reducing some of our more punitive measures, including at-home suspensions and how we address late penalties on academic work. When I brought it up with my students, their response was that it wasn't punitive enough. Basically, young people do secretly crave structure, even as they rebel against it...maybe SO they can rebel against it.

"Structure" used to be a hallmark of Conservatism. My eldest son introduced me to the hilarious show Letterkenny recently, and it's a fascinating mixture of fart and sex jokes combined with dizzying word play and a really sweet sensibility. The main character is an Ontario "hick" farmer who lives by a code - structure - that we would normally associate with good old conservative values. "When a friend asks for help, you help him." "When your partner cheats, you don't go back." Wayne relishes a good donnybrook and isn't afraid to get in a scuffle. Yet, many of the characters are queer, including his sister and he's fine with that. He's oddly compassionate while also being rather rule bound.

In short, very Canadian.

American Conservatism is no longer interested in rules and structure. They are interested in power and authority, which are not the same thing. This yahoo in Florida who wants to basically fire teachers who  get vaccinated is simultaneously celebrating a lack of rules and reveling in their authority. In fact, mandatory vaccinations is a good rule, a structure, to allow for better public health. "When a friend asks for help, you help him" only writ over an entire society. I got vaccinated for myself, but also my family and my students and to reach herd immunity. This school isn't interested in rules and structures for its students, it's interested in power over its faculty and students.

The current "Conservative" movement as still defined by Trump isn't interested in rules and structures the way a "Burkean Conservative" would be, which is why it's not right to call it conservative but rather "Conservative." If the main impetus for Republican actions today is "own the libtards" then this is again understood best as a movement fundamentally about power (and the perceived loss of power and status of white men). There is no governing philosophy beyond servicing great wealth through tax cuts and deregulation that really doesn't energize those resentful white men and women. 

For Republicans, winning is the point. Maybe this is why they can't concede that they lost in November. For Democrats, winning is a means to an end. Biden's governing agenda is largely popular. This has been true of Democratic policy for decades. Majorities want higher taxes on the rich, reasonable gun safety measures, climate action, more public goods like childcare and eldercare, infrastructure improvements and reproductive freedom. Republicans don't have a comparable set of agenda items - they have opposition to the Democratic agenda. No wonder they didn't need a platform for the past election beyond supporting Trump - Trump's entire appeal was that he hated Obama and would do the opposite of Obama.

This is why negotiating with a party that is beholden to the 33% of the population that is wedded to the Republican Cult of Owning the Libs is pointless. 

I don't know how long the culture of grievance can persist as a potent force in electoral politics. At some point they will reach an inflection point of despair. They will give up in the face of overwhelming odds. 

Can't happen soon enough.

UPDATE: Jon Chait looks at how some "conservative" commentators are doubling down on the PWN THE LIBTARDS.

Monday, April 26, 2021

The Census

 We have the winners and losers of Congressional seats (and therefore Electoral College votes).

Given that Democrats tend to cluster in cities, there is a natural gerrymander in favor of Republicans, and in several states they have control of redistricting, which should exacerbate these trends. Still, here are my best guesses.

Democrats could gain a seat:
Colorado, Montana, Oregon
These Western states have seen some "urban" growth and Colorado, in particular seems ripe to add a Blue seat.

Republicans could gain a seat:
Texas (at least one, Texas gets two), North Carolina (from gerrymandering), Florida (gerrymandering)

States that are losing a seat:
California, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia.

I would think that Ohio will be a lost Republican seat and West Virginia HAS to be a lost GOP seat. Given the urban populations of PA and IL, the lost seats could come from rural areas.

It will be interesting to see...

Actual Herd Immunity

 Stories about "breakthrough infections," the J&J "pause" and stories about devastating side effects from the second shot have increased vaccine hesitancy.

This is bad, and I blame journalism for some of it.

The idea behind vaccines is fundamentally the same as masks: "I'm protecting myself and I'm protecting you." My vaccine means it is MUCH less likely that I get sick or infected. Therefore, I am unlikely to be a vector for future transmission.

The virus needs to be present in a person that then sheds it to another person. If you have a combination of people who are immune - via vaccination or having had it - that reduces the ability of the virus to spread either TO that person or FROM that person. Add in masks, and it becomes very hard for the virus to spread.

If it does not spread, it dies out.

That's the goal. That's what New Zealand and Vietnam did.

Can we get America there? If we keep being stupid, I doubt it.

Sunday, April 25, 2021

What Has Biden Learned?

EJ Dionne has a column suggesting that Biden has taken a long look at Clinton and Obama's presidencies and how they were crushed in the ensuing midterms. In both cases, the argument goes, a sluggish economy led to punishment at the polls.

I've wondered if that's true.

Clinton was presiding over the beginnings of the '90s boom, but it had largely failed to sink in with people. He failed to reform health care, because his plan was successfully labeled as a government take over of doctors. (It wasn't.) He also embraced certain cultural positions on gays in the military that pushed him into looking like a Big Government/Cultural Liberal. As a result, Democrats got hammered in the South and rural areas. Long time incumbents fell by the wayside as the white rural voters abandoned the Democratic party. If you look at the map from 1994, it is almost unrecognizable. West Virginia, Mississippi, Alabama, the Upper Plains and much of Texas is Blue and the Northeast and California are unexpectedly Red.

By the time Clinton leaves office in 2000, the West Coast is Blue, but there are still many Blue seats in the South. As late as 2008, Earl Pomeroy and Stephanie Sandlin are representing the Dakotas for Democrats. The 2010 bloodbath was the movement of rural white voters away from the Democrats. The 2018 election was the movement of the suburbs towards the Democrats.

Were these movements all about economics? Or more likely was the cultural sorting that is currently dividing the country? And most importantly, will Trump voters (as opposed to Republican voters) stay home without him on the ballot (as they did in 2018)?

I'm all for taking as big a bite of the apple as possible. Republicans will likely win the House in 2022. But just as likely, some of the seats in Iowa, New Mexico and California that Republicans picked up might shift back to Democrats.

Saturday, April 24, 2021

Quick! To The Fainting Couches!

 Biden has a radical, socialist new tax plan to jack the income tax on top earned all the way up to levels that haven't been seen in this country since...2017? The usual Beltway media drones have labeled this as radical and it's really not.

There is something slightly radical in Biden's capital gains tax cuts, but it's also "progressive" in terms of who it hits - Big Time investors. In the past the GOP has been pretty successful at scaring both voters and Senators into not jacking up taxes on capital gains, but hopefully this time is different. We tax investment income at a fraction of other income and that needs to stop.

Friday, April 23, 2021

What Do Polls Measure?

 Reading this ABC/WaPo poll makes me wonder what's actually being captured here. To a large degree, this poll is simply measuring the partisan and demographic divide in the country. Democrats and most independents feel that more needs to be done to police the police and protect minorities from police misconduct. More Republicans feel that way than they used to, but they are still largely less sympathetic to the idea. The hardcore 1/3 of Americans who are borderline or outright fascist want the police to do more.

I have a hunch we will see more of this sort of polling that simply captures existing partisan divisions through different lenses. The question 2016 and 2020 ask is whether we are capturing a certain segment of the population that more explicitly backs Trump and Trumpism. If we are not seeing them, we are in deep trouble. If they are being captured, then it's pretty clear that Trumpism was the last gasp of a generation of whites who will be increasingly marginalized in a changing America.

Thursday, April 22, 2021

This Will Come To A Head

 Biden feels like a character who comes in to a story to clean house and right wrongs. He is correcting the mistakes made early in the Obama Administration of trying to find Republican votes for Democratic priorities. My guess is that if Republicans try and use the debt ceiling as leverage, Biden will simply nuke the debt ceiling. And that will be a good thing.

On American foreign policy, Biden has already committed to ending the Forever War in Afghanistan, and I really think he is going to follow through on this. An area where I'm also enthusiastic is in Biden's apparent decision to label the Armenian Genocide as such. That Turkey committed genocide and ethnic cleansing against its Armenian population is largely uncontested in non-Turkish historical circles. Yet, it's been an issue of profound sensitivity to the Turks, so American presidents have largely used euphemisms to describe it. Biden is basically telling Turkey to suck it up. 

Turkey has long held a form of immunity because it is a NATO member that is overwhelmingly Muslim and controls access to the Black Sea. The base at Incirlik is a critical military installation for American operations in the Middle East. But as Erdogan has retreated from democracy and increasingly acted contrary to shared NATO interests, the fewer allies he has in the halls of Washington. Trump may have liked Erdogan, but fewer and fewer policy makers do.

Among the potential actions America could take if Turkey continues to estrange itself from NATO would be to recognize an independent Kurdistan in northeastern Iraq. Move the airbase from Incirlik to Erbil. The Kurds are really our only friends in the region and after Trump screwed them over, it's the least we could do.

The worry, I suppose is that Erdogan might cozy up to Putin, but Turkish suspicions of Russia are older than the nation itself. All dictators require the military on their side, and if Erdogan's actions lead to an independent Kurdistan, and overtures to their ancient enemy to the north, the military might just decide they've had enough of Erdogan.

Tuesday, April 20, 2021

What We Learned Today

 To me, there was never any doubt that Derek Chauvin would be found guilty, simply because his guilt was so manifestly plain to see. It's not 1992. George Floyd is not Rodney King. We have reached something of an inflection point.

But not a turning point, necessarily.

Chauvin's guilt was established by the video, but his conviction happened because the police and the prosecutor's office could not deny the crime. We have seen cops who kill people get convicted, but only when the Blue Wall of Silence is breached. The fact that multiple members of the police department came forward to testify that Chauvin was not justified in his use of force meant that the defense was reduced to saying, "Who you gonna believe? Me or your lying eyes?"

This means that the issue of police violence - against everyone but especially People of Color - is fundamentally a political one. I don't mean elected officials, except maybe sometimes, yes. What I mean is that this is a societal issue where societal and political pressure to hold police accountable is of paramount importance.

How much this extends to other cops will make a difference as to whether we can change their behavior, which is the most important thing in the end.

Chauvin

 Depressing number of people think he will walk or only get the lightest sentence. I'm cautiously optimistic. People point to how police are rarely held culpable for their crimes and this is true. But as we saw from the Laquan McDonald case, if the cops break the Blue Wall, juries side with THOSE cops over the one in the defense stand.

I certainly hope I'm right.

However, it doesn't mean that we've turned a corner on prosecuting the police.

Didn't Think I'd Start My Day Agreeing With Cornel West

 But, yes, the Classics are important.

Monday, April 19, 2021

This Is Infuriating

 Apparently, back at the beginning of our long war in Afghanistan, we had a shot at peace. This makes sense, given the weak legitimacy of the Taliban. Through a combination of our own lack of strategic planning and the nature of blood feuds in Central Asia, we wound up squandering any chance at finding a peaceful solution in Afghanistan, perhaps even including leads on bin Laden. 

The Bush Administration never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity. He remains our worst two-term president.