For years, the nominating process of the Democratic Party was dominated by the ghosts of Daley's Chicago. I guess it can all go back to Will Roger's famous quip, "I don't belong to an organized political party; I'm a Democrat." But the '70s and '80s were times of raucous conventions, floor fights and special interest pandering.
Clinton changed that in '92. His convention was incredibly well stage managed, so much so that Ross Perot temporarily dropped out of the race in response. Meanwhile, the Republicans gave Pat Buchanan a prime time speaking slot to unleash the GOP id upon America's living rooms. Nevertheless, the GOP did manage to continue to preserve their reputation that was best articulated by James Carville: "Democrats have to fall in love with their candidates, Republican just fall in line." The GOP nominating process was inevitably determined by party elders in smoke filled rooms.
In 1996, it was Bob Dole's turn. In 2000, seeking a younger face, the party selected Dubya and crushed the McCain uprising. In 2008, though, you could sense the ability of the party elite to shape the field slipping away. Partly because they knew they were likely to lose, they just didn't seem to settle on an "heir" and push that guy over the finish line. They flirted with Giuliani, but his various apostasies and foibles were simply too much. Huckabee and Romney just didn't fit the mold, so they settled on McCain rather late. It was not the coronation that so many GOP nominating processes resemble.
Now, with economic indicators suggesting they should be able to challenge Obama, they want a candidate who can win. And it's pretty clear who their "best" candidate is. It's Willard. He's a perfect generic candidate with a square jaw and nice hair, but unlike Governor Goodhair, he actually has higher brain functions. The party elite can read a poll and Romney matches up better against Obama than do any of the other inhabitants of the traveling freak show that is Decision 2012.
So what we are seeing now is a concerted effort by GOP opinion makers to shove Newt under the bus. The attacks go something like, "I knew Newt Gingrich, Newt Gingrich was a colleague of mine, Newt Gingrich should not be allowed anywhere near power ever again." Former compatriots from the House are lining up to shake their heads sadly and sagely and lament how they'd LIKE to support Newt, but honestly, the dude is just a dick.
This, I think, is at the root of the punditry's basic disbelief that Newt can win the nomination. Everyone THEY know is telling them Newt can't win. He has, as Charlie Pierce puts it, Dickhead Tourettes. He is compulsively unable to not utter bizarre formulations of the World According To Newt.
The problem that the DC GOP establishment and associated punditry have is that they have created a monster. They were fluffing the Tea Party as true patriots, arming themselves against the assault of Islamo-Social-Fascism. They were "real Americans" who refused to let government mess with their Medicare.
Problem is, those yahoos in their tri-corner hats have now completely taken over the GOP. They don't want Romney, because they have spent the last two year working themselves into a frothy lather over ObamaCare, which was basically a GOP idea promulgated by Romney. Plus, magic underwear.
So what will happen?
First, Mitt has launched a full bore attack on Newt. (Let's take a moment. Mitt and Newt? Suddenly Barack seems like a normal name.) If Newt wins the nomination, those attacks can't be taken back. The party establishment will never really warm to Newt. Notice how the money-machers have largely sat out the primaries? Where are the bundlers? Where are the "Pioneers"?
If Mitt is able to steamroll Newt out of the nomination, do you think all the Romney hating GOP rank and file members will suddenly become enthusiastic for the Multiple Choice Mormon? Not to mention that Romney - in an effort to hold of Gingrich - has had to not only embrace Ryan's toxic plan to end Medicare as we know it, but kiss it, nuzzle it and buy it a fancy dinner before a night out dancing. In order to outflank Gingrich, Romney has to embrace some of the most toxic ideas in the GOP firmament.
Finally, Mitt's entire plan was to be the "Anointed" one, the GOP Heir Apparent. He never really rose to the bait of the lesser Not Romneys. True, he did smack down Governor Goodhair, but there are 8th graders who can do that. But now he has to actually go on Fox News and get pissy with Bret Baier. He has hidden himself from the media, now he's going to have to engage it.
And frankly, Mitt's electability is largely ephemeral, I think. He has not had to compete with someone as bright as he is. Newt and Obama are not Perry or Bachmann. He gets whiny when challenged. And the basic attack on Mitt from the Democrats will be Bain Capital, 24-7. Mitt will be the Wall Street guy who bought up businesses and laid people off. He's the rich stiff who doesn't like to be challenged.
There's no way to tell how this will play out, because the GOP hasn't really had to deal with this in decades. But it strikes me that the GOP may be headed for the wilderness that the Democrats experienced in the '70s and '80s, as they twist themselves into pretzels trying to accommodate the anti-abortion nutcases and the anti-gay and anti-hispanic bigots and the supply side dead-enders and the 1% and the aging white population of which Gingrich is, in fact, the perfect representation.
Hey, a guy can hope.
UPDATE: Here's a chart from Nate Silver at the Times. It shows how common this terrain was for Democrats and how unprecedented to the GOP:
No comments:
Post a Comment