Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

The Polling Numbers Are Weird

There has started a trickle of head-to-head polling on the Presidential race.

What's fascinating is that the National numbers show a tied race or a race slightly tilted in Romney's favor.

But the state polls show a lot of promise for Obama.

For instance, Gallup has R-Money up 47-44 and Rasmussen has him up 49-44.  Reuters has Obama up 49-42.

Now two of those outfits, Gallup but especially Rasmussen, tilt to the GOP in their samples.  But when you go to state polls you see stuff like this:

Iowa (PPP): Obama 51-41
Ohio(PPP): Obama 50-43

If Obama wins Iowa and Ohio, he wins the election.

I guess the "it's early" caveat is in order here, but that's an unusual amount of noise in the polling.

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