AP Reading

After a day of work, I think I'm leaning towards protesting the new AP exam, though for different reasons.

The new exam is more than a little dumbed down.

Why Is Marty O'Malley Running?

Marty O'Malley is trying to run as the liberal alternative to Clinton.  But with Bernie Sanders in the race, where is the oxygen for him?  He has a decent reputation as a left of center technocrat.  He doesn't exactly have an abundance of charisma either.

And then there is Baltimore.

O'Malley is probably best known as being the inspiration for a character on The Wire. And that character was part of the data driven policing that The Wire exposes as being a fraud.  Add on to that Freddie Gray's death and the turmoil over police tactics and it's tough to see where he can stand apart from Hillary.  If Clinton is vulnerable, it is because of the basic legacy of the Clinton '90s.

In the '90s, the Clintons had to tack right because that's where the country was.  But that makes her complicit in some of the failures that the left sees in the Clinton Legacy: welfare reform, too cozy with Wall Street, too hawkish, triangulation.

Right now, economic populism is a popular stance with the "Warren Left," and everyone is clamoring for that.  But Clinton is staking out that territory and Sanders lives there.  O'Malley can't run to Clinton's left on race, and Sanders equates race with economics.

The only real space on Clinton's left is foreign policy and I'm not sure that will be as decisive as it was in 2008.

The Hastert Rules

Pretty vague at the moment as to what the former Speaker was trying to cover up.  It would seem to be from his time as a high school teacher and wrestling coach.  That's a little different from public malfeasance.

It seems pretty clear he broke the law - that he helped pass - regarding bank withdrawals.  And then he lied about it.  If he lied, the question immediately becomes about what.

Hastert was largely considered the least corrupt, least dogmatic possibility for Speaker.  He wasn't Tom Delay.  If he was covering up some sordid fact from his past that's one thing.  But if he was engaged in public crimes as a House member or Speaker, then that's quite another.

I can only say it so many times: One party sees government as a tool to improve the common weal.  One grand old party sees government as a source of enrichment for them and their friends.

UPDATE: Turns out it was creepy sex stuff.  How sad in so many ways.

Who The Hell Is The Frontrunner?

I know we're a long way from even beginning to winnow the field for the GOP nomination, but there isn't anyone we can plausibly call a frontrunner.  It's obvious that HRC is the Democratic frontrunner.  At this point in 2008, we had her and Rudy Giuliani as frontrunners.  In 2012, it was Mittens.

But right now, it's just a ridiculous free for all.

Jeb "JEB!" Bush has faltered badly on basic political competency and may have already lost the critical "Fox Primary."  Rick "Don't Google Me" Santorum should have the claim as "runner-up from before."  But he's mired in the single digits.  Rand Paul is simply too much of an apostate.

I kind of thought Scott Walker was going to sneak in based on his unoffensiveness to the base.  He hates unions and science and government, so they can ignore his basic charisma deficiency.

Now it turns out he has a major corruption scandal brewing.  This is completely unsurprising, as Walker's entire political career is based on renting out government to private enterprise.  Walker is one of many exhibits of the fundamental dysfunction at the heart of conservative political philosophy.  But outright corruption could be a deal breaker.  It's already sunk the Outlaw Jersey Whale.

OK, Marco Rubio... It's your turn in the spotlight.  The hot, hot spotlight.

Don't forget your water.

Den Of Thieves

The US is going after the organized crime syndicate known as FIFA.

This is a good thing.  The US is powerful enough and soccer agnostic enough to take on this swamp of corruption and bribery.

Maybe go after the IOC next?

Ash Carter Steps In It

The Secretary of Defense just screwed up.  I'm not sure what compelled him to say that, but the last thing America needs to do is:

A) tear down the ISF.

and

B) provide any more grist for the War Party's mill.

ISIS took a town it had been besieging for months.  It's a defeat.  Defeats happen. The overall war isn't going well for ISIS, however, and Ash Carter - of all people - should know that.

Lindsey Graham Is A Dickweed

Senator Huckleberry Closetcase really needs to shut the hell up.  He is now spouting a bunch of racist nonsense about Iranians that doesn't begin to pass any sort of sniff test.  Here is the nut 'graph:

“The Iranians cheat and they lie. They are a radical regime," he said. "They want a master religion for the world; the Nazis wanted a master race."

Ok, Huckleberry, stop with the vapors and retreat to your fainting couch.  His logic is based on the fact that Iranians are liars because he worked in a pool hall and a bar and the Iranians were liars.  So the problem is that the Imams who run Iran - who don't tolerate gambling and alcohol - are the same as whoever the hell were these Iranians living in South Carolina when Lindsey Graham was a lad.  And Iranians don't want a "master religion."  They want Muslims to live under Muslim law.  That's pretty much it.  Oh, and they are our allies against ISIS, you dipshit.

At this point the pathology of the War Party is so pronounced as to be slightly embarrassing.  It's like the revered old vicar who gets plastered on a cup of sherry and then starts talking about the thighs of the ladies in the choir.  Everyone gets really nervous and tries to change the subject and hope he falls asleep soon.  

That's the way I feel about those who lust so greedily for Muslim blood, that they will go to any lengths to create more dead Muslims.  And that this comes on the heels of a Memorial Day when we (hopefully) paused to remember and reflect on the over 4000 dead Americans that were a direct result of this sort of thinking makes it all the more obscene.  

We are - thankfully, hopefully - in the middle of a discussion about the decisions of 2002 and 2003 to invade Iraq, thanks to Jeb "JEB!" Bush's stillborn presidential campaign.  His inept handling of a basic and unavoidable question questions the idea that he's the "smart one" in that family.  But it also has forced the GOP field to answer the question, too, and they have all seemed to come out and say, "No, bad call."

Except Huckleberry... standing before empty rooms, caterwauling for more blood, more dead and more white crosses decked with flowers on languid May afternoons. 

Because he worked in a pool hall once.

Fury Road

I just saw Mad Max: Fury Road with Thing One.

That movie is bonkers.  Unlike so many movies today, it didn't FEEL CGI.  It felt gritty and real, but also surreal.

What was interesting was that there really was a feminist theme to the movie, despite its pyrotechnic action scenes.

Worth a see in the theaters, maybe even in 3D.

Class Of 2015

Well...another group has left.  And another one readies itself in the wings.

Lather, rinse, repeat.

But we need to change our Senior spring so that all the nice things we say about the Seniors at graduation doesn't feel forced.

Erin Go Ahead And Get Married

Ireland's referendum legalizing same-sex marrage is striking, precisely because it's Ireland.

It is difficult to think of a more Catholic country, including Italy, but they voted overwhelmingly against the stated position of the church.

I have to think that the scandal of sexual abuse by priests over the years - a scandal that roiled Ireland more profoundly than any other country - was probably decisive in making the Catholic church's position untenable for politicians in Ireland.  Simply put, the Irish Catholic church has no more moral authority on issues of sexuality.

Pope Francis clearly understands this in a way that his predecessors did not, and he is clearly trying to move the church in a different direction.  I hope he succeeds, because the world needs a religious organization that is mobilized for the poor and not against certain sexual preferences.

But when an organization whose authority rests on its moral legitimacy, how does the Church recover that after it's lost?

This REALLY Matters

All of the GOP Governors kurrently krowding into the Klown Kar to run for President have huge budget shortfalls.

This should come as a surprise to no one who has a rudimentary understanding of addition and subtraction.  If you slash taxes as much as they have been doing, you are going to have to make that up somehow.  You will either have to essential end the existence of some public goods, raise more revenues or run a deficit.  Since it is illegal in some states to run a deficit and Republicans cannot under any circumstances raise taxes because it would make the Baby Reagan Jesus cry, the result are draconian cuts to programs.

This should be the most important story of the 2016 primary and general election season.  This is a real-world application of the policies that a Republican President - working with a Republican Congress - would put into place.  Marco Rubio wants to cut taxes in a way that is frankly insane and innumerate.

How the winner of the Presidential election would actually govern is what an election "season" should be about.  Here we have really important data points - and you can throw in places like Kansas, too - to demonstrate what GOP fiscal policy looks like.  In some ways, having a Clinton lead the Democratic ticket is a great opportunity in this regards, because after Clinton raised taxes, the economy took off.  Obama has raised taxes and the economy is growing again.

But in the states where they have pursued the logic of Grover Norquist's pledge, they are staring at fiscal disasters.

It's not that hard, but I have zero faith that our news media will make this clear.

Two Reasons For This

There are two reasons why legislators think that their constituents are more conservative than they actually are.

The article correctly identifies the proximity of wealthy donors to legislators.  If you are running for office, you need money and the money at the state level is most likely to come from the sort of entrepreneurial characters that make up the Main Street Republicans.

But I think the other reason has to do with the vocal nature of conservatives.  They write their local newspapers.  They call into talk shows.  They astro-turf their representatives offices.  Check out the comment thread of a local newspaper or even Yahoo!

I have no idea why conservatives tend to be disproportionately vocal, but it's likely tied to their increased presence in the midterm elections.  Whether it is because they feel under siege or feel their positions more strongly than others, they are certainly more visible.

To My New Readers...

Welcome.

Now go away...

Boobio

Jon Chait has noted that Marco Rubio has decided to run a Neo-Con campaign of fear mongering.

He notes within that Rubio is good at finding the popular positions within the GOP and quickly jettisoning his own beliefs to adopt to the preferred positions of his base.  And I guess running on a combination of Ted Cruz's "The world is on fire" and Huckleberry Closetcase's "I will kill you with a drone for thought crimes" isn't a TERRIBLE idea.  Rubio is one of the least obviously insane GOP candidates, so if he can take a safely insane idea (unlike his idea to eliminate all taxes on wealth) like killing scary people, he could seize the nomination.

At this point, finding a credible presidential candidate in the Klown Kar is pretty hard.  Nobody seems to like Jeb "JEB!" Bush, NOBODY likes the Outlaw Jersey Whale.  Nobody like Ted Cruz...

At this point, Scott Walker's strategy is simply to not shoot himself in the face.

But running on fear seems inevitable these days.  Hillary will run on the fear of the repeal of Obamacare.  I do hope she finds a positive theme, however, because fear works better on the Right than on the Left.

And fear makes you stupid, but I repeat myself.

Crazy Days

This time of year, there is no rhythm to the days.  My classes meet infrequently and there are a hundred little fires to put out.  There are simultaneously too many things to do and too much time to force me to do any of them.

Spending two days doing professional development and curriculum work doesn't help.

But I guess it's better than writing about how Christie is doomed and Bush is right behind him.

Contrast

Much has been said and written about the different reactions to the motorcycle gang shootings in Waco and the treatment of civil protesters in Ferguson and Baltimore.  Much sarcasm has been employed and too good effect.

But ultimately, it just makes me sad.  Because despite this critically different response from police to a known threat and a largely peaceful protest, it won't make a damned bit of difference on those whom they don't want it to make a damned bit of difference.

The Hive Mind

Bruce Bartlett is an apostate.  He worked for Dubya but is now much more independent minded in his politics.

He has written a fairly authoritative history of how Fox News has not only taken over conservative news, but how it essentially took over the Republican party.

He notes extensively and with great care how malinformed Fox viewers are about the news.  He then notes how that has an effect on both candidates and electorate.  Simply put, Fox news creates conservatives who are trying to fight imaginary problems.  The Benghazi nonsense or the birth certificate nontroversy are good examples of this.

He begins - interestingly -  by describing the liberal tilt of journalism prior to Fox and talk radio.  Part of the liberal tilt of both journalism and historians is that we reward change with our attention.  And liberal embrace change.

But as Fox falls down it's own rabbit hole of bullshit, it diverges further and further from facts.  And facts - as Stephen Colbert reminded us - have a well-known liberal bias.

Fox viewers are older.  Their average age is 68.  That's Nixon's Silent Majority generation.  And they are leaving this earth.  Just recently, our town budget passed on its first try, which is unusual.  Too often the elderly residents vote down the school budget.

As the Fox demographic dies out and is replaced with more and more Millenials in the electorate, how will Fox react?  Given that they are high on their own supply of lies, I can't imagine it will be pretty.

Reunions

Had a nice 30th high school reunion.  Interesting how people you perhaps didn't know 30 years ago can suddenly become boon companions based on a few years together 3 decades ago.

Republicans vs. History

Jon Chait makes an interesting point about the Cult of Reagan and how that Cult demonstrates a distortion in Republican thinking.

It has been well-established that Republican veneration of Reagan bares little resemblance to the actual president.  Reagan raised taxes.  Reagan negotiated with the Soviets and gave arms to Iran.  Reagan saved Social Security by compromising with Democrats.  Reagan offered amnesty to illegal immigrants.

Chait notes that George W. Bush provides a strange litmus test for Republicans, because Bush ultimately was the president that Republicans thought Reagan actually was.

And it was a disaster.

Jeb "JEB!" Bush is merely the most awkwardly placed Republican to wrestle with this question.  He has family ties to his father - who was falsely considered a squish - and his brother - who palpably demonstrated the folly of Republican mythology translated into policy.  Jeb winds up with very little room to maneuver, and so he is stuck trying to thread a very small needle.

The broader question of how could he be so unprepared for that question is a good one.  But I think the more profound implication of Jeb's stumbles on the Iraq question is that he represents a cognitive dissonance surrounding his family name.  As several people have noted, few conservative voices have rushed to Jeb's defense over his fumbling answer on whether he would have invaded Iraq.  Usually, Fox News can be counted on to rally around the front-runner, which suggests maybe Bush isn't the front-runner.

The implication has always been that Jeb was saddled by being associated with his father in the minds of Republican primary voters - as a RINO, as a squish - whereas he will be associated with his brother by independent voters - as a war mongering incompetent bent on destroying the global economy.

The reality might be that Jeb reinforces Digby's famous assertion that "conservatism never fails, it can only BE failed."  And Dubya was the Man Who Failed Conservatism.  He brought the perfect crystalline ideals of Pure Conservatism into disrepute by flubbing Iraq and Katrina.  And he expanded Medicare and wanted to start a guest worker program, so maybe he's a squishy RINO like his dad.

So for conservative primary voters, Jeb represents a combination of his father's sins and his brother's incompetency.  And rather than wrestle whether their IDEAS are bad, they will simply reject that man who bears the sins of his family.

Conservatism - unlike liberalism - is intensely wedded to personages.  Reagan was popular, so he is Ronaldus Magnus.  Bush 41 was not popular, so he was a RINO.  Bush 43 wasn't, so he betrayed conservatism.  When Scott Walker goes down, they will find a way to blame it on his lack of charisma or some other exigent factor.

Their ideas are terrible.  They don't know how to or want to govern.

And they will continue to misread their own history.

Bacevich!

I heard Andrew Bacevich speak at an AP reading once.  I think the loss of his son in Iraq fundamentally opened his eyes to the way America operates in the world and the Middle East in particular and how that form of operation is unsustainable.

His argument here is one I've been circling around, too.  Obama is trying to "re-set" US-Iranian relations.  And that could be a remarkable moment in the contemporary Middle East.  Since 1990, the United States has suffered much more irreparable harm from Sunni extremists than it ever did from Iranian-backed Shi'ite extremists, the Beirut Marine Barracks bombing notwithstanding.

I remain unreasonably optimistic that Iran can become a regional partner with the United States, as long as we can move beyond the Hostage Crisis of 35 years ago.  The Iranian populace no longer hates us as they once did - in fact, they are remarkably pro-American for the Middle East today.  In Egypt, Turkey and Jordan, favorable opinions of the US range from 10-20%.  Meanwhile, in Iran, favorable feelings towards the US run at around 30%.  And that's with us slapping sanctions on them and treating them as pariahs.

Ayatollah Khameini is not going to live forever.  While it's unlikely that Iran has a "Pope Francis" moment, it's not impossible - especially if the US-Iranian deal holds.

The fact that this discomfits American allies like Israel and Saudi Arabia is actually a good thing.

It's time for the US to stop writing blank checks and start writing a new history.

TPP Fast Track Goes Down

Probably a good thing.  Fast track means that the deal can only be voted up or down, which I guess could have happened even if Fast Track was approved yesterday.

I can't understand why ostensibly Democratic politicians continue to see merits in free trade.  It's not good for American workers.  If you wanted to condition TPP on raising the minimum wage and expanding Medicaid, then I can see why you would do this.

But overall, the TPP debacle was a return to the days when Obama wanted to negotiate with himself and always wound up losing.

Stupid Yale

Stupid rich people.

http://www.vox.com/2015/5/12/8590639/stephen-schwarzman-yale-donation

TPP

I have to say, I'm falling on to the Elizabeth Warren side of this debate.

Free trade agreements have been pretty much disastrous for American manufacturing workers.  They have been great for consumers, and obviously those two overlap.  But there have been environmental issues with free trade, labor practices, copyright issues...At this point I think the track record of unfettered free trade is pretty bad.  The EU could be about to crack up, so I'm not sure that now is the time to head in the opposite direction.

What I can't discern is why Obama thinks this is a good idea.

I Guess Bullets Just Love Him So Much

...that they want to be around him all the time.

Happy Mother's Day

Always amusing to walk into the CVS and see all the men picking over the last remaining cards.

Overthinking It

The Washington Post is trying to figure out what went wrong with the British election polling.

There are theories about sample size and cell phones and response rates.

They glide over the obvious answer, which is that parliamentary elections can be tricky to gauge.  In a US Presidential or Senatorial race, you have a binary choice.  If you're voting in a Scottish constituency, you can vote Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Conservative, Green, UKIP and probably a few other parties.  That allows for volatility in your choice.  Maybe you're a Conservative, but you know that a Tory can't win in your constituency.  So, you vote Lib Dem or UKIP.  Or maybe you're a Lib Dem, but you're fed up with the party over the austerity coalition, but can't quite make yourself vote for Labour.  Suddenly the SNP might look appealing.

Polling in Britain was slightly off, when it looked at the overall percentage of the vote each party would get nationally, but it wasn't disastrously off.

Polls are most useful for penetrating BS punditry.  Here is a piece ranking GOP presidential candidates.  Bush, Rubio, Walker, Cruz, Paul and Huckabee are all right there 1-6, and that roughly corresponds to the polling data.

But then Cillizza includes Kasich, Christie, Jindal and Perry to round out his top 10.  He notably leaves off Ben Carson and Rick Santorum, despite the fact that Carson in particular is more viable according to the poll numbers.

But Christie and Kasich are Creatures of the Beltway.  Republicans don't really like them and are very unlikely to vote for them.  And probably they won't vote for Carson either, because a lot of what he says is crazy.  But the GOP voting pool if full of crazy.

WTF Happened In Britain?

A political earthquake may or may not have just happened in Britain.

The reason it isn't clear is that Britain has an electoral system that awards seats in Parliament on the basis of who gets the most votes, not who gets a majority.  However, there are multiple parties running, so a minority of votes tends to get you a seat in the Commons.

The Conservatives took advantage of a divided (and poorly led) opposition to eek out a bare majority of seats, allowing Cameron to form a government.  He won a majority of seats with only about 37% of the overall vote.

Labour got killed, because the Scots are apparently not over their desire for independence.  The Scottish National Party seems to have won all but one of the seats in Scotland.  Labour's base is in Scotland.

In another shocking development, the UK Independence Party - a rightist party opposed to immigration and the European Union - won 13% of the vote (though it will only get 1-2 seats).

Cameron is now more or less pledged to hold a referendum on whether Britain will stay in the EU.  And while that 13% of UKIP - roughly the British equivalent of the Tea Party - is close to enough to force Britain out of the EU, most Conservatives want out, too.

The Liberal Democrats got crushed and Labour sorely underperformed, so their leaders - Nick Clegg and Ed Milliband respectively - will step down.  Milliband in particular was a pathetic opposition leader.

So the Conservative austerity program will continue, despite its poor results.  The Scots might bolt the Union and the Union might bolt the EU.  Overall, the results look a little like fragmentation and divisions won the day.  British pundits are decrying the success of a "fear-based" Tory campaign.  Well, Americans can tell them how well fear-based campaigns can work, sadly.

But because of the plurality election system, we can't really say that the British electorate supports any one of those programs.  They don't support austerity, the don't support Scottish independence and they don't support withdrawing from the EU.

Only their elected representatives do.

British Parliament Headed To Chaos

Looks like Conservatives will have a plurality of seats, but they could struggle to put together a majority in the House of Commons.  Labour, Lib Dems and the Scottish National Party don't look like THEY can form a majority coalition either.

It's striking that both Britain and Israel are having trouble with the fragmentation of their parliamentary systems at the same time we are struggling with gridlock and ideological partisanship in our system.

Rant

Some of the most fun on the Internet is when John Cole gets angry.

Meanwhile, Britain is having a pretty darned consequential election today.

Everyone Hates Bibi

Apparently, Netanyahu still hasn't gotten around to forming a government.  And now, he's sufficiently pissed off Avigdor Lieberman that his Yisrael Beiteinu party won't have anything to do with Bibi's coalition.

If that does put Neftali Bennett into a prominent position, Netanyahu will A) have only a single vote margin of error and B) have little remaining credibility in the international community with a noted anti-Arab racist in his cabinet.

Well played, Bibi...

So Much Dumb

Louie Gohmert - America's Dumbest Congressman - is apparently late to the Texas-is-being-invaded party.  He is trying to make up for lost time.  Jon Stewart mocked those in Texas who believe this is an invasion.  He noted that Rick Perry never made asinine comments like this when he was governor, ending the segment by saying, "I never thought I'd say this, but listen to Rick Perry."

Perry immediately began to try and walk a fine line between normal crazy and batshit, eat-your-own-poo crazy.

Right now, I think maybe it DOES make sense for us to invade Texas.

Bernie Sanders' Preferred Message

Well...This is interesting.

Explicit income redistribution is supposed to be "un-American" and "socialist."  Yet, here we have evidence that it is the preferred position of a majority of Americans.  And given the age breakdown, it will become more popular as the Fox News demographic continues to fall to the ravages of time.

I've always wondered what would happen if we taxed capital income - stock options, capital gains, bonus money - over $100,000 a year at a higher rate.  Maybe just the 37% or so that regular income is taxed at.

Maybe we could fund our government, rebuild our country's infrastructure, create a free national internet and improve access to preschool?

Or maybe we could just continue to put our government up for sale to the highest bidder.

Outsourced To Amy Schumer

http://www.kbgressitt.com/2015/05/03/feminism/amy-schumer-ask-if-birth-control-is-right-for-you/

Pam Geller Is A Huge Asshole

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/shooting-at-muhammad-cartoon-contest-in-texas

Muslims consider images of Muhammad a massive insult to their faith.  Creating a contest for the best cartoon of the prophet is just a massive asshole move.  So is shooting cartoonists.

Can we just find a way to lock all these people in a building together?

I just have a sorry feeling that the guys killed in Dallas were put up to this by Geller.

The Internet Giveth

On Thursday night, I was entered into an NFL draft prediction pool.  I finished 10th and am supposedly in line to win $1000.  We could really use that money, so Yay!  But the guy wants my Social Security number because the prize is over $600 and he has to report it to the IRS.  So, now I have to research this guy and the rules about IRS reporting for prizes.  He would have to report it if it was a horse race, but I'm not sure that qualifies.

When I got home Friday, we had a message saying we had won a Ford Explorer.  Mr. Google helped me out, and it turns out the whole thing is a scam.  So, in this instance having access to the Internet saved me a ton of time.

It's a weird world we live in.  Some guy runs a scam, but a bunch of strangers can help pull the mask off of him.

Happy Belated May Day

Bernie Sanders (Socialist - VT) will be running for president as a Democrat.

He is not considered a "serious" candidate, because he currently polls at about 5.6% in the Democratic primary field, behind Elizabeth Warren, who isn't running, and Joe Biden, who hasn't declared.

Chris Christie IS considered a serious candidate.  He is polling at 6%, behind Bush, Walker, Rubio, Cruz, Paul and Huckabee.

The difference in perception - and it's not just media wankery - is because Chris Christie can raise money from Wall Street, and Bernie Sanders can not.

Now that David Wildstein has pleaded out and admitted that the GWB Traffic Nightmare was political retribution, it's tough to see how Christie survives as a viable candidate.

But within the money politics of a post-Citizens United world, Bernie Sanders is not a viable candidate.

And that's sad.

Your Right Wing Brain

"Those thugs in Baltimore need to be shot for rioting, now excuse me while I go clean my AR-15, so that I can stop the military from invading Texas....Support the troops!"