Recent polls have shown an essentially tied race between Clinton and Trump. This is to be expected. Trump has sewn up the nomination and is consolidating his control over the GOP and winning the loyalty of GOP voters. Clinton still has the Bernie or Bust crowd to deal with. At this point in 2008, McCain led Obama for the same reason.
Polls in the early spring are usually pretty predictive. Then we enter a weird period during the summer where all sorts of strange numbers appear.
After the conventions and Labor Day, the numbers will again make more sense. That isn't to say that the poll numbers aren't saying anything, they are. They are noting that Trump is shoring up his support on the Right, while Clinton continues to fight on the Left.
But there still aren't enough Republicans to elect Donald Trump, and he still polls horribly with too many different groups.
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