Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Thursday, November 3, 2016

Why I'm Still Optimistic

This chart is why I can't see Trump getting elected:

Basically, red numbers are good for Democrats.  Compare 2016 with 2012.  Trump is underperforming Mitt Romney with the following groups: Republicans, Independents, Conservatives, Moderates, Men, Women, College Grads, Young People, People 30-64, Catholics, Protestants, Urban Dwellers, Suburban Dwellers, The Poor, The Rich, Hispanics, White College Grad Men, White College Grad Women.

Trump is overperforming Romney with the following groups: Whites Without College Degrees Men and Women.  And Blacks.

That last one might be really critical.  If Clinton can leverage Obama into increasing Black turnout into levels that are close to what he got, I just don't see how Trump can win.

I know the polls show the race tightening.  I just can't see how Trump finds more votes than Romney.

And Romney lost.  By a fair amount.

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