Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Sunday, March 12, 2017

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Here is my prediction. Trump will coast along on the Obama recovery for awhile.  But there is a stock market bubble brewing.  It was brewing a little under Obama, but it is wildly inflating itself now.  Bubbles seem to burst in the fall, but will it be 2017, 2018 or 2019?  If the border tax or the Ryancare goes through, we will see inflation in the first case with a loss of real wages in the second.  Obamacare was one of the greatest redistributions of wealth downward since the Great Society.  Remove that from 15 million Americans, and the money they are currently spending on consumer goods gets redirected towards health care.

Basically, if the GOP repeals Obamacare (doubtful but hardly impossible), adds a border tax (likely at this point) and allows Wall Street to run amok (happening), then we can expect the economy to crash again in some way.

When that happens (if it happens), the Republican response is already in the can and ready to go: Donald Trump was not a True Conservative.  He was a Democrat once, they will say.  He was an outsider, they will say.

Stories like this need to be filed away to be trotted out in 2018 and 2020.  Complete and utter nonsense like this need be played on a loop.

A cynic would say it won't matter.  People have so cemented themselves into their partisan identities that they won't budge.  But an economic crunch or the loss of health insurance is not something you can spin away as the "lying media" or the "coastal elites."

The Democrats need to keep their fingerprints off the AHCA shit-sandwich, precisely so they can hang its failures around the GOP.

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