One of the small surprises within the big surprise on Election Night 2016 was that Trump won Florida. Some of this is because Trump is the living embodyment of aging Boomer resentment and covert racism. Trump won by about 113,000 votes or 1.2%. He also came in under 50%. Instinctively, I would guess that Hillary Clinton's negatives were quite high in Florida among both elderly voters and Hispanic men.
Trump is doing everything he can to make sure he doesn't win Florida again. When I look at the Democrat's path to control of the House, I'm usually looking at California and Northeastern suburbs. I do think that's where much of the Anti-Trump wave will gather.
Keep an eye on Florida, however, as the nature of the immigrant communities shouldn't be underestimated. It's especially worth keeping an eye on Puerto Rican voters moving to Florida. If - as reported - over 100,000 Puerto Ricans are moving to Florida, turning them into votes gets you a long way towards Senator Nelson getting elected and Republicans losing Florida in 2020.
Republicans can't lose Florida and win the White House.
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