The Brennan Report

Charlie Pierce (eventually) points to the Brennan Center Report that suggests Democrats will need an 11 point wave to recapture even the barest majority in the House, because of gerrymandering. I confess, I have only read summaries of the Brennan Report, but it strikes me as a group with a very particular ax to grind.  They have been fighting against gerrymandering for a while now and want to make sure that the Supreme Court takes the Wisconsin case seriously.  I guess.

If you believe that Democrats need an 11 point lead, and you look at the generic ballot that suggests merely a 6 point wave, then you might decide that now would be a good time to freak out.  Democrats winning at least one of the houses of Congress is an imperative for the health of American democracy in the Age of Trumpistan. 

Some problems.

First, the Brennan report uses historical modeling to come up with the 11 point margin.  OK, that's fine, I guess.  But it doesn't tell us THAT much about 2018.

Second, gerrymandering isn't universal.  California doesn't gerrymander, and I can see Democrats winning 7-10 seats in that state alone.  Pennsylvania has a new map that could allow for another 4-5 seats being picked up. 

Third, this feels like a corrective election, almost a realignment.  Trump's polls remain "sticky" with approval ratings around 40.  The problem is that his support has collapsed in those suburban swing districts that will likely decide the 2018 election.  Without even trying, Democrats should benefit from this election being about Trump.  A lot of Republicans who coasted to victories in the Age of Obama will now be voted out, because people actually seem to like divided government.

Fourth, polls this far out are kind of useless, and tend to underreport building waves.  Much more important are special elections.  In those elections, Democrats are seeing about a 13 point swing in their favor.  Those results matter, even if they wind up being Democratic losses.

No, nothing is set in stone.  I can see a case for fighting complacency, and the Brennan Report could be an effort to ward off the idea that a simple wave will solve our problems without working for it.  I can also see a case where Democratic fatalism and pessimism creates a crisis where one does not exist yet.