Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Sunday, March 11, 2018

You're Recent PVI Update

So, let's say that we see a 12 point Blue Wave.  Which districts are at risk (+12 to +8 GOP districts)?  Which are Lean Democrats (+7 to +3 GOP districts)?  Which are Solid Democrats (+2 GOP to Dem districts)?

At Risk to Dems
AK - at large
AZ 6
CA 1
CA 4
CA 8
CA 22
CA 42
CA 50
FL 3
FL 8
FL 12
GA 1
GA 6
GA 7
GA 12
IL 16
IN 2
IN 5
KY 6
MI 1
MI 2
MI 4
MN 6
MO 2
NJ 4
NY 27
NC 3
NC 5
NC 6
NC 7
NC 8
NC 9
NC 10
OH 2
OH 5
OH 7
OH 16
OR 2
PA 10
PA 16
SC 5
SC 7
TX 2
TX 6
TX 10
TX 17
TX 21
TX 22
TX 24
TX 25
TX 31
VA 1
WA 5
WI 6
WI 7

55 seats total. 

Lean Dem Chance
ARK 2
CA 45
CA 48
CO 3
FL 6
FL 15
FL 16
FL 18
FL 25
IL 12
IL 13
IL 14
KS 3
MI 3
MI 6
MI 7
MI 8
MI 11
NE 2
NV 2
NJ 7
NJ 11
NM 2
NY 1
NY 2
NY 11
NY 21
NY 22
NY 23
NC 2
NC 13
OH 1
OH 10
OH 12
OH 14
OH 15
PA 17
TX 7
TX 32
VA 2
VA 5
VA 7
WA 3
WI 1
WI 8

45 seats total

Solid Dem Chance
AZ 2
CA 10
CA 21
CA 25
CA 39
CA 49
CO 6
FL 26
FL 27
IL 6
IA 1
IA 3
ME 2
MN 2
MN 3
NJ 2
NJ 3
NY 19
NY 24
PA 1
PA 5
PA 6
PA 7
TX 23
VA 10
WA 8

26 seats total.

Let's say that the Democrats pick up 23 of the 26 "Solid Dem Chance" and then 22 of the 45 "Lean Dem Chance" and then 15 of the "At Risk."  That gives them a pickup of 60 seats.

They need 24 seats to take the House.

There are some caveats.  We don't even know what the Pennsylvania map will look like come November.  Democrats can always blow winnable races by running weak candidates.  It's a long way to November.

However, the battleground needs to be prepared. Right now, the battleground should be California, Florida, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.  Texas...maybe. 

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